San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)
The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.
The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.
As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.
Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.
San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Pick against spread: San Francisco -5
Confidence: Low
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