New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom Brady is 29-15 ATS off of a loss. There’s a reason why the Patriots have lost back-to-back regular season games just 4 times over the past 10 years. When not favored by 3 or more (which includes games in which they are favored by 2.5 or fewer or games in which they are underdogs), the Patriots are 41-17 ATS.
Combining those two, Tom Brady is 17-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer off of a loss in his career. This is a huge eff you situation for Tom Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had to hear for two weeks how they are done without Rob Gronkowski and things will only get worse now that they lost last week. In reality, the Patriots were a play away from a big road win against a quality opponent and had more yards and more first downs than the Dolphins (453 to 378 and 29 to 20). They beat the Saints earlier this season without Rob Gronkowski.
I’m not saying his absence doesn’t hurt their long-term Super Bowl chances significantly, but they are still capable of great performances in the right situation. This is one of those situations. The Patriots have already won straight up against New Orleans and Denver in this situation this season, again even though they were without Rob Gronkowski in the former. Baltimore is playing better football of late, but they don’t exactly fit into that group. If the Patriots can beat the Broncos and the Saints in this situation, they can beat the Ravens.
Yes, both of those games were in Gillette and the Patriots haven’t had a lot of success on road this season, as they are here. However, it helps that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.
It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. This isn’t a new thing. Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game.
This is also a very good situation for the Patriots as this is the last big game on their schedule, with only a home game against the Bills left on their schedule. The Ravens, meanwhile, still have to go to Cincinnati, a much tougher game that will have major playoff implications. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 81-98 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs.
Combining those, teams are 86-54 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. It makes sense. The Patriots don’t have any distractions that would keep them from pulling this upset, while the Ravens also have to focus on the Bengals next week. I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook an opponent like the Patriots, but they’re definitely in the worse spot.
This is also a huge revenge game for the Patriots, who lost to the Ravens twice last season. The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games to an opponent, but when they do, they are 9-5 ATS in the 3rd game. Along with the Denver game, this is one game the Patriots have definitely had circled all season. They’ll put forth their best effort, especially off of a loss. Again, I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook them, but they have other things going on that could easily lead to them not being as focused as the Patriots here.
One other thing that works against the Ravens is how close their big upset win in Detroit was last week. Teams are 24-40 ATS as home favorites since 2002 after a road win by 3 or fewer points as underdogs of 3 or more. That was such an emotional win, both in the way they won, on a last second 61-yard field goal, and the situation, as big road underdogs on Monday Night Football needing a win to stay in the playoff race. That could easily bleed into this game.
The only thing that works against the Patriots here is how good the Ravens are at home. The Ravens are 41-8 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. However, 6 of those 8 losses came to Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers (three times). I think Tom Brady and the Patriots would fit in there. That’s not enough to keep this from being my Pick of the Week.
On final note, I wouldn’t put any money on this game right away. Field goal protection with the Patriots is going to be so important. I mean it’s always important, but 19 of the Ravens’ last 33 games (including playoffs) and 9 of their 14 games this season have been decided by a field goal or less either way. If the Ravens do win, there’s a good chance it would be by a field goal. There’s a much better chance this line shifts from 2.5 to 3 than to the Patriots being favored or something, so it’s beneficial to wait a little bit, unless you start to see the line move down. The marginal benefit of this line moving up is so much more than the marginal benefit of this line moving down. Either way, it’s my Pick of the Week.
New England Patriots 20 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +115
Pick against spread: New England +2.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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