What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

	Team	First downs	Touchdowns	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4th downs	Field goal attempts
1	Denver	382	63	56	26	0	21	81.20%
2	San Diego	330	36	50	17	1	31	78.71%
3	New Orleans	318	42	50	17	8	30	77.42%
4	Carolina	293	34	56	16	3	26	76.40%
5	Chicago	309	40	58	19	4	28	76.20%
6	Dallas	288	40	71	15	1	26	74.38%
7	Green Bay	300	35	57	21	4	34	74.28%
8	Detroit	312	39	59	33	9	21	74.21%
9	New England	333	38	67	19	8	35	74.20%
10	Seattle	277	38	59	17	5	31	73.77%
11	Philadelphia	306	42	75	17	6	26	73.73%
12	Atlanta	285	32	58	25	8	24	73.38%
13	Cincinnati	285	39	68	25	8	20	72.81%
14	Kansas City	283	37	78	14	6	25	72.23%
15	Arizona	294	33	70	25	3	29	72.03%
16	Indianapolis	276	33	67	14	7	33	71.86%
17	Tennessee	272	35	69	23	5	24	71.73%
18	Pittsburgh	274	31	66	20	6	29	71.60%
19	Washington	300	32	72	29	11	21	71.40%
20	Minnesota	280	37	64	26	7	30	71.40%
21	St. Louis	253	29	69	17	11	24	69.98%
22	San Francisco	247	34	70	18	3	30	69.90%
23	Miami	254	31	70	21	7	34	68.35%
24	Cleveland	267	28	77	25	13	24	67.97%
25	Houston	274	24	75	25	11	32	67.57%
26	Oakland	244	30	74	28	3	27	67.49%
27	Tampa Bay	237	25	78	18	11	26	66.33%
28	Baltimore	259	24	80	22	5	37	66.28%
29	Buffalo	264	28	86	26	7	30	66.21%
30	NY Giants	251	26	77	39	6	20	66.11%
31	Jacksonville	237	20	86	24	13	23	63.77%
32	NY Jets	233	20	80	29	6	31	63.41%

 

Defense

	Team	First Downs	Touchdowns	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4th downs	Field goal attempts
1	Baltimore	242	26	88	20	6	31	64.89%
2	San Francisco	240	25	77	26	12	20	66.25%
3	Kansas City	265	29	78	35	9	22	67.12%
4	Cincinnati	255	25	78	24	7	28	67.15%
5	Carolina	238	18	60	27	7	30	67.37%
6	Seattle	255	18	69	33	7	23	67.41%
7	Buffalo	278	35	81	27	5	32	68.34%
8	Detroit	256	31	72	18	3	37	68.82%
9	Houston	240	35	79	10	4	29	69.27%
10	Arizona	280	31	73	28	9	26	69.57%
11	NY Jets	256	33	72	10	9	35	69.64%
12	New Orleans	246	27	70	17	6	26	69.64%
13	Pittsburgh	262	34	69	16	8	30	70.64%
14	Miami	287	28	66	23	7	33	70.95%
15	Cleveland	286	37	81	19	4	28	70.99%
16	NY Giants	291	31	71	22	9	27	71.40%
17	New England	300	33	72	25	11	24	71.61%
18	Tampa Bay	285	32	60	29	4	29	72.21%
19	Tennessee	295	33	67	20	2	37	72.25%
20	Indianapolis	282	33	65	21	7	28	72.25%
21	Denver	308	41	74	23	10	23	72.86%
22	Oakland	278	42	70	19	4	22	73.56%
23	Philadelphia	329	34	65	26	10	28	73.78%
24	St. Louis	303	36	64	27	6	22	74.02%
25	Green Bay	292	38	60	18	7	29	74.32%
26	Atlanta	290	40	53	19	4	33	75.17%
27	Chicago	300	38	54	25	4	27	75.45%
28	Jacksonville	308	44	67	20	2	24	75.70%
29	Washington	299	47	63	21	5	21	75.88%
30	Minnesota	330	45	66	19	6	27	76.06%
31	San Diego	291	33	55	15	5	26	76.24%
32	Dallas	350	45	53	26	7	25	78.06%

 

Differential

	Team
1	Carolina	9.03%
2	Denver	8.34%
3	New Orleans	7.78%
4	Seattle	6.36%
5	Cincinnati	5.66%
6	Detroit	5.38%
7	Kansas City	5.11%
8	San Francisco	3.65%
9	New England	2.59%
10	San Diego	2.47%
11	Arizona	2.45%
12	Baltimore	1.39%
13	Pittsburgh	0.95%
14	Chicago	0.75%
15	Green Bay	-0.04%
16	Philadelphia	-0.05%
17	Indianapolis	-0.39%
18	Tennessee	-0.52%
19	Houston	-1.70%
20	Atlanta	-1.79%
21	Buffalo	-2.13%
22	Miami	-2.60%
23	Cleveland	-3.02%
24	Dallas	-3.69%
25	St. Louis	-4.04%
26	Washington	-4.48%
27	Minnesota	-4.67%
28	NY Giants	-5.29%
29	Tampa Bay	-5.88%
30	Oakland	-6.08%
31	NY Jets	-6.23%
32	Jacksonville	-11.93%

 

Projected Week 16 Lines

CIN/MIN	13.33
CAR/NO	4.26
TEN/JAX	8.41
DEN/HOU	7.04
STL/TB	4.84
BUF/MIA	3.47
WAS/DAL	2.21
CLE/NYJ	0.21
KC/IND	8.50
SEA/ARZ	6.91
DET/NYG	13.67
BAL/NE	1.80
GB/PIT	2.00
SD/OAK	11.55
PHI/CHI	2.19
SF/ATL	8.44