New York Giants (5-9) at Detroit Lions (7-7)
In case you’ve been living under a rock for the past week, the Lions have a turnover problem. Despite their 7-7 record, the Lions have a turnover margin of -13, which is 4th worst in the NFL and their 31 turnovers are the 2nd most in the NFL. The narrative around this has ranged from everything from fire Jim Schwartz (because, apparently, that’s his fault), to bench Matt Stafford for Shaun Hill (because, apparently, a 3.0% interception rate is bad), to the Lions don’t value the ball (whatever that means).
I look at this a different way. I look at them as a team that could be very dominant if they could ever have even just a neutral turnover margin. Even in last week’s debacle of a loss to the Ravens, they were a missed 61-yard field goal away from winning despite a -2 turnover margin (the 3rd turnover never would have been committed if Tucker’s field goal was a yard shorter). Teams that lose the turnover margin by 2 win just about 17.7% of the time. That would have been an accomplishment.
Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent and very easy to correct on both a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Even these Lions were +1 in turnovers through 9 games (6-3), before having a -14 turnover margin in the past 5 games (1-4). It’s the same team. Did they suddenly forget about the value of the ball? Teams that have a turnover margin of +4 and teams that have a turnover margin of -4 have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week. The same thing is essentially the same for teams with -5 and +5 turnover margins, -3 and +3 turnover margins, etc. Past turnover margins don’t seem to be a good predictor of future turnover margins. On top of that, part of the Lions’ poor turnover margin has to do with their mere 40.48% rate of recovering fumbles. That type of thing doesn’t continue. Covering fumbles isn’t a skill.
If none of these numbers convince you that we should assume net-zero turnovers for the Lions this week, how about this: the Lions are playing the Giants this week. The Giants. The Giants make the Lions look like a careful football team, turning the ball over 39 times on the season, most in the NFL, giving them a -17 turnover margin that is the 2nd worst in the NFL. The same thing applies for the Giants: we should assume net-zero turnovers for them going forward because of how inconsistent turnovers are, but if we’re assuming net-zero turnovers, the Lions have the clear advantage this week.
The Lions are moving the chains at a 74.52% rate, as opposed to 68.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.70% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, are 28th, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 71.40% for their opponents, a differential of -5.29%. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions, as the line should be around 13.5, instead of 9.5, where it is right now.
The Lions are also in a good spot, with no real distractions on the horizon, as they go to Minnesota next week. Teams are 51-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. On top of that, teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more, as the Lions currently are expected to be next week. They have nothing keeping them from dominating an inferior opponent.
The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Giants are in a few good spots. They too have no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against the Redskins up next. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. The Giants historically also do very well as road underdogs, at least in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, dating back to 2004. They are 34-20 ATS as road underdogs since then.
On top of that, they’re in a good spot coming off of a home shutout and back-to-back blowout losses. Teams are 38-21 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points and 39-25 ATS off of a home game in which they didn’t score. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in those situations.
I don’t think they’re undervalued here because we’re still getting line value with the Lions, but if the Giants were playing anyone else this week or if the Lions had won last week, we would have significant line movement against the Giants after last week. Even still, this line has shifted from 7.5 to 9 in the past week. That doesn’t cross any key numbers, but it’s still worth noting. As for overlooked and embarrassed, those are self-explanatory. Those could both easily be true this week. Even still, I do like the Lions this week.
Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 10
Pick against spread: Detroit -9
Confidence: Medium
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