Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that ranks 16th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 76.20% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 0.75% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Eagles are a better team with Nick Foles under center, which is why the Eagles are a better team in spite of that. Nick Foles has been incredible on the season, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 9.02 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles are 7-2 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

Of course, that assumes normal circumstances and that this game means the same thing to these teams equally. This game could be meaningless to the Eagles if the Cowboys win earlier in the day, because they can’t clinch the division or be eliminated in this one. They might not rest their starters or anything, but that still could affect their motivation, especially against a Chicago team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Even if Dallas loses, the Eagles still could have their motivation affected because they know they can still clinch next week in Dallas, while Chicago is in a much bigger fight. They also might not be preparing for this game with the same urgency of the Bears, assuming a Dallas win against the hapless Redskins.

There are seeding consequences related to this game as if both teams were to win their respective divisions, the winner of this game would be the 3 seed and the loser would be the 4 seed, but there’s really not a big difference between a home game against San Francisco and a home game against New Orleans/Carolina, so these teams might not care about seeding. This is still a bigger game for the Bears. Of course, this line does seem to take that into account as it’s at 3, which suggests these two teams are equal. We’ve already established that really isn’t true. I’m still taking the Bears, but I’m not confident at all. I might change my mind on that pre-game if the line stays in the same place and the Cowboys win though, so stay tuned.

Update: The Cowboys won earlier today, so this game becomes meaningless for Philadelphia. I’m raising this to a low confidence pick at the new line of 2.5, but I’m not confident enough to put money on it.

Chicago Bears 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Chicago +2.5

Confidence: Low

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