Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)
Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.
On one hand, the Jets are in a sandwich spot here, coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and before a bigger game against Miami next week. Teams are 81-98 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-102 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. This is a classic rest game situation as the Jets could give less than 100% for an easier game in between two much harder games.
We’re also getting line value with the Browns as the Jets are secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league worst 63.41% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -6.23%. This makes sense as their -121 point differential is the 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only Houston, Washington, and Jacksonville. The Browns aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02%, which is 23rd in the NFL. However, this line suggests these two teams are essentially even, which I don’t think is true. That suggests this line should be at a straight up pick.
On the other hand, the Jets usually bounce back off a loss well. The Jets are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread off of a loss on the season. They’re also a much better home team than road team this season. They are 5-2 straight up and against the spread at home, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 0.86 points per game. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 16.43 points per game. At home off of a loss, they are 4-1 ATS this season.
That’s because Geno Smith has been so much better at home on the road. On the road, he’s been downright abysmal, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He hasn’t been great at home, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, that’s so much better than he’s been on the road (a QB rating of 70.0, as opposed to 55.9 on the road) and he’s been good enough for their strong defense to carry them to at least some success.
Also, the Browns are not in a good spot either, as, like the Jets, they have a more important game next week, which could keep them from covering the spread. Next week they go to Pittsburgh and teams are 48-75 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, the Browns are far from full strength as they’ll likely be without Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Desmond Bryant.
Haden is easily their best coverage defensive back. Jordan Cameron is a valuable #2 option in the passing game. Now the Jets just have to game plan for Josh Gordon, which will make it much easier to stop him. Desmond Bryant, meanwhile, was very much missed last week against the Bears as their strong run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 3rd in the NFL) allowed the Bears, led by Matt Forte, to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.8 yards per carry). Again, I have no confidence at all either way, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Jets as long as this line is below a field goal. If we were getting field goal protection, I might take the Browns. That’s how close this is.
New York Jets 13 Cleveland Browns 10
Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5
Confidence: None
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