Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)

This game is very important for both teams. For Baltimore, a win and a loss by either San Diego or Miami puts them in the playoffs, but if they lose they need San Diego, Miami, and Pittsburgh to all lose. For Cincinnati, they need a win to keep them in the #3 seed. If they lose, Indianapolis can move up with a win over the lowly Jaguars and Cincinnati would be in the #4 seed and have to face Kansas City in the first round. A win for Cincinnati also keeps them alive for a first round bye, should New England lose at home to the Buffalo earlier in the day.

Given that this game means equally much for both teams, I really like Cincinnati at lot. They’ve been a dominant home team this season, not just winning all 7 of their home games, one of three home teams to have done so, but also covering in all 7 of their home games, the only team in the league to have done so. Not only that, their margin of victory in those 7 games has been 17.71 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we’re getting the Bengals as mere 5.5 point home favorites over the Ravens is a gift.

Even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance, we’re getting line value here. The Bengals are a legitimately dangerous team. They are actually better than their 10-5 record, with the 6^th best point differential in the NFL and they’re doing that despite being pretty average in turnover margin (+2). In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 4^th, moving the chains at a 73.54% rate, as opposed to 66.36% for their opponents, a differential of 7.18%.

The Ravens are a solid football team, certainly better than the final score last week against New England would have suggested, but we’re still getting line value with the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a mere 66.01% rate, with their defense keeping them afloat, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 65.47% rate, a differential of 0.54%, which ranks 14^th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9.5, instead of 5.5, again even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance.

This line shifted from 3.5 to 5.5 over the past week, which is a significant line movement, but this line never should have been at 3.5 in the first place. That was a huge overreaction to the Bengals’ loss in Pittsburgh, which should not have been seen as a surprise because they aren’t nearly the same team on the road this season. Besides, Joe Flacco’s knee injury may be a significant concern. It certainly seemed to be bothering him in the loss in New England, as he was noticeably limping and completed 22 of 38 for 260 yards and 2 interceptions, much of which came in garbage time.

It’s also worth noting that the Ravens aren’t usually a good road team. Since 2008, the first season of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, the Ravens outscore opponents by an average of 10.10 points per game, as opposed to 1.28 points per game on the road. That’s not unique to the Flacco/Harbaugh era, as they get outscored by an average of 0.95 points per game on the road since 2002, while they outscore opponents by 7.98 points per game at home. I don’t think you can use the usual 3 point adjustment for home field in their games.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them is they usually play well after getting blown out in the Jim Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, going 8-1 ATS after a double digit loss since 2008. They usually don’t get blown out twice in a row. However, there’s just so much going in Cincinnati’s favor that this is my Pick of the Week, in a week where there aren’t a lot of good side to be confident in, because of the nature of week 17.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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