What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

	Team	First downs	Touchdowns	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4th downs	Field goal attempts
1	Denver	407	67	62	26	1	24	80.75%
2	San Diego	354	38	51	20	1	35	78.56%
3	New Orleans	338	43	57	19	9	32	76.51%
4	Chicago	327	41	64	21	5	29	75.56%
5	Carolina	303	36	64	17	3	27	75.33%
6	Philadelphia	334	48	77	18	6	27	74.90%
7	Green Bay	326	39	62	23	4	35	74.64%
8	Dallas	304	43	74	17	1	27	74.46%
9	Detroit	336	43	65	34	9	22	74.46%
10	New England	354	41	74	19	8	37	74.11%
11	Atlanta	310	35	63	27	8	25	73.72%
12	Cincinnati	309	44	72	26	9	20	73.54%
13	Seattle	287	39	68	19	5	33	72.28%
14	Tennessee	294	37	72	24	6	26	72.11%
15	Pittsburgh	295	35	71	22	6	30	71.90%
16	Indianapolis	295	35	71	14	7	37	71.90%
17	Kansas City	301	38	83	18	6	26	71.82%
18	Washington	317	34	75	30	12	24	71.34%
19	Arizona	310	34	75	29	3	32	71.22%
20	San Francisco	267	37	73	18	3	32	70.70%
21	Minnesota	290	39	69	30	9	30	70.45%
22	St. Louis	271	31	71	19	12	27	70.07%
23	Cleveland	286	29	80	27	14	26	68.18%
24	Oakland	258	31	79	30	4	29	67.05%
25	Houston	288	25	83	27	11	34	66.88%
26	Miami	260	31	80	23	8	34	66.74%
27	Tampa Bay	251	26	82	20	12	28	66.11%
28	Buffalo	282	29	92	27	7	34	66.03%
29	Baltimore	278	25	84	26	8	38	66.01%
30	NY Giants	266	27	83	41	6	23	65.70%
31	NY Jets	258	23	83	29	7	33	64.90%
32	Jacksonville	252	22	90	25	15	24	64.02%

 

Defense

	Team	First Downs	Touchdowns	Punts	Turnovers	Failed 4th downs	Field goal attempts
1	Baltimore	263	29	95	20	6	33	65.47%
2	Cincinnati	265	27	83	28	9	28	66.36%
3	Seattle	271	19	74	37	7	26	66.82%
4	Buffalo	284	35	91	29	6	32	66.88%
5	Carolina	258	19	67	29	8	32	67.07%
6	San Francisco	265	28	82	28	12	21	67.20%
7	Kansas City	284	31	82	35	9	26	67.45%
8	Detroit	271	32	78	20	3	40	68.24%
9	Arizona	290	32	82	30	9	28	68.37%
10	New Orleans	256	29	78	18	6	27	68.84%
11	Houston	265	39	85	10	5	32	69.72%
12	NY Jets	275	34	75	12	10	37	69.75%
13	Miami	305	29	72	24	7	37	70.46%
14	New England	319	34	76	29	14	25	71.03%
15	Pittsburgh	288	38	74	18	8	31	71.33%
16	NY Giants	315	33	77	25	9	28	71.46%
17	Cleveland	311	40	84	19	5	30	71.78%
18	Indianapolis	300	34	70	25	7	29	71.83%
19	Denver	322	42	82	25	10	25	71.94%
20	Tennessee	310	35	71	21	4	38	72.03%
21	Tampa Bay	303	34	62	31	5	32	72.16%
22	Philadelphia	347	35	71	28	11	29	73.32%
23	St. Louis	317	37	68	29	7	24	73.44%
24	Oakland	302	44	71	22	4	26	73.77%
25	Green Bay	313	42	65	20	7	30	74.42%
26	San Diego	305	34	60	17	6	28	75.33%
27	Atlanta	310	43	56	19	4	35	75.59%
28	Jacksonville	330	46	70	21	3	26	75.81%
29	Washington	315	50	66	23	5	22	75.88%
30	Minnesota	354	50	70	20	7	27	76.52%
31	Chicago	328	44	56	26	4	28	76.54%
32	Dallas	367	47	56	27	8	28	77.67%

 

Differential

	Team
1	Denver	8.81%
2	Carolina	8.26%
3	New Orleans	7.67%
4	Cincinnati	7.18%
5	Detroit	6.22%
6	Seattle	5.46%
7	Kansas City	4.37%
8	San Francisco	3.50%
9	San Diego	3.22%
10	New England	3.08%
11	Arizona	2.86%
12	Philadelphia	1.58%
13	Pittsburgh	0.56%
14	Baltimore	0.54%
15	Green Bay	0.22%
16	Tennessee	0.09%
17	Indianapolis	0.07%
18	Buffalo	-0.85%
19	Chicago	-0.98%
20	Atlanta	-1.87%
21	Houston	-2.84%
22	Dallas	-3.21%
23	St. Louis	-3.37%
24	Cleveland	-3.60%
25	Miami	-3.72%
26	Washington	-4.54%
27	NY Jets	-4.86%
28	NY Giants	-5.76%
29	Tampa Bay	-6.05%
30	Minnesota	-6.07%
31	Oakland	-6.72%
32	Jacksonville	-11.79%

 

Projected Week 17 Lines

NE/BUF	6.93
MIA/NYJ	4.13
PIT/CLE	7.16
CIN/BAL	9.64
IND/JAC	14.86
TEN/HOU	5.93
SD/KC	1.85
DEN/OAK	12.53
PHI/DAL	1.79
NYG/WAS	1.78
CHI/GB	1.80
DET/MIN	9.28
NO/TB	16.72
CAR/ATL	7.13
SEA/STL	11.84
ARZ/SF	2.36

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