Houston Texans (2-13) at Tennessee Titans (6-9)

Firing Gary Kubiak and replacing him with Wade Phillips didn’t seem to fix anything. They’ve lost their last two games by margins of 22 and 24 points, despite losing 8 of their previous 11 games by a touchdown or less. Sure they were facing tough teams in the Colts and Broncos, but they had been within a field goal of Kansas City, Arizona, New England, and Indianapolis under Kubiak. All Phillips seems to have done is help this team get closer to the #1 pick, which I guess could have been the goal.

However, teams tend to cover the spread off of back-to-back losses by 21 points or more, going 39-21 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Giants got blown out in back-to-back weeks before last week and then they went into Detroit and won as 9 point underdogs. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. All 3 could be true for the Texans here this week.

However, I don’t know if they’ll get up for this one and be competitive, given the way they’ve been playing since Wade Phillips took over. He doesn’t seem to being doing a good job of preparing this team. I’m especially concerned about the Texans since their last two games were much more important to them than this one. After getting blown out by the Colts and Broncos, against whom they played very tough, keeping it within a field goal late, they could just mail it in against the Titans. You wouldn’t think they would because they are professionals playing for future contracts and future playing time, but it’s happened before.

We’re not really getting any significant line value with the Texans either. They are better their record. As I mentioned, they’ve had a lot of close losses and they’ve played good teams close. They move the chains at a 66.88% rate, as opposed to 69.72%, a differential of -2.84% that ranks 21^st in the NFL. The Titans, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.11% rate, as opposed to 72.03% for their opponents, a differential of 0.09% that ranks 16^th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 6, instead of 7. It’s something, but it’s not significant enough line value to be confident in the Texans here, especially with the way they’ve been playing under Phillips.

If I had to take a side, I would take the Texans, as we are getting a little bit of line value with them and because of that aforementioned trend, but I can’t be confident in them at all. It’s not just because of what I mentioned earlier, but also because both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

Tennessee Titans 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Houston +7

Confidence: None

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