Month: December 2013

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Jets have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

These two teams might not seem to be even teams because the Dolphins are favored by a whole touchdown and because the Jets were just favored by one point in New York a few weeks ago and got blown out, but they are pretty even, much more than this line would suggest. We’re getting line value with the Jets. The Dolphins are not as good as their 8-7 record would suggest. The complete goose egg they laid in Buffalo last week is just evidence of that.

They rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, largely because of an incompetent offense, which moves the chains at a 66.74% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their porous offensive line is a big part of the reason why and the Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL because of the trio of Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson, all of whom are playing like Pro-Bowlers. They have the potential to take over this game.

The Dolphins defense is much better than their offense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.46% rate, but that’s still a differential of -3.72%, which, again, ranks 25th in the NFL. The Jets are 27th. Their offense obviously struggles, moving the chains at a 64.90% rate, but their defense is much better as they allow their opponents to move the chains at a 69.75% rate, a differential of -4.86%. That suggests this line should be around 4, instead of 7. Given that, the Jets definitely seem like the right side.

However, the Jets do tend to struggle on the road and off of a win. The Jets have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-9 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere. However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season.

He’s completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 2 touchdown, and 13 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 19.5 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. I’m still taking the points, especially since the Dolphins have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (12-3)

The Seahawks need this win to clinch the #1 seed and home field advantage through to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost at home last week, for the first time since week 16 of the 2011 and the first time in Russell Wilson’s career, snapping a perfect 14-0 start. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t still be an auto-bet at home. Nothing is going to work every time, but betting on the Seahawks blindly at home has been very lucrative in the past, actually dating back several seasons.

Since 2007, they are 38-18 ATS at home, including 22-10 ATS as home favorites, and 11-4 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 11-4 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.87 points per game at home since the start of last season. One loss doesn’t change that.

What one loss does do is give us some line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks were 10 point home favorites for the Cardinals last week and it seemed completely reasonable at the time given the Seahawks home dominance. Now they are just 10 point home favorites against a St. Louis team that lost by 20 in Arizona and that is without left tackle Jake Long with a torn ACL? Why? Because they lost one game? The Seahawks have been very good off of a loss recently anyway, going 15-9 ATS off of a loss since Pete Carroll took over in 2010 and 5-2 ATS off of a loss since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback in 2012. That makes sense considering elite head coach/quarterback duos usually dominate off of a loss.

How much line value are we getting with the Seahawks? Well, they move the chains at a 72.28% rate, as opposed to 66.82% for their opponents, a differential of 5.46%, which ranks 6th in the NFL. The Rams, meanwhile, come in at 23rd, moving the chains at a 70.07% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.37%. That suggests this line should be around 12, before you even get into the Seahawks’ home dominance and the absence of Jake Long. I have a lot of confidence in the Seahawks this week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 St. Louis Rams 6

Pick against spread: Seattle -10

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) at New Orleans Saints (10-5)

This game is very important to the Saints. If they lose here, they can be knocked out of the playoffs entirely if the Cardinals lose to the 49ers. Also, if the Panthers somehow lose earlier in the day, the Saints can get a first round bye with a win here. Sean Payton has already said the Saints will be approaching this game like a playoff game and that’s very reasonable. This game doesn’t mean anything for the Buccaneers, but their players will be playing for future contracts and the like so they’ll probably put a lot into this one as well, especially because they would love a chance to eliminate a division rival.

In spite of that, I still really like the Saints. Their recent 2 game road trip did not go well for them as they lost as big favorites in St. Louis and then lost on a late drive to the Panthers in Carolina, losing the division lead in the process. However, now they are back at home, where they are essentially an auto-bet. As long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center, the Saints are 30-10 ATS at home since 2008 and they are 15-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 16 of those games by an average of about 20.5 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. Given that, getting the Saints as 13 point favorites here at home over the lowly Buccaneers is stealing.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS on the road, but, again, now they are back home.

It also helps the Saints that they are coming off of a loss as they are 17-5 ATS off of a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline and Drew Brees is under center. They were unable to come through in this situation last week, but they still almost beat a very tough Carolina team on the road, despite their road struggles. They definitely play better off of a loss. Besides, last week was a road game and now they are back home, where they are 12-2 ATS off of a loss since 2008 with Sean Payton, including 10-0 ATS off of a road loss.

Even before you take into account the Saints’ home dominance and how well they play off of a loss, we’re getting line value with the Saints. They rank 3rd in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.51% rate, as opposed to 68.84% for their opponents, a differential of 7.67%. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, rank 29th in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.11% rate, as opposed to 72.16% for their opponents, a differential of -6.05%. That suggests this line should be around 16.5, instead of 12.5, again even before we take into account the Saints home dominance and how well they play off of a loss.

They only thing the Buccaneers have working for them is that they are road underdogs off of a road loss, a situation teams are 101-64 ATS in since 2008. Teams cover at roughly that rate in that situation historically as well, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. It’s not a new thing. However, I don’t think that’s going to protect them from getting blown out. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: New Orleans -13

Confidence: High

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (8-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-5)

This game is very important for both teams. For Baltimore, a win and a loss by either San Diego or Miami puts them in the playoffs, but if they lose they need San Diego, Miami, and Pittsburgh to all lose. For Cincinnati, they need a win to keep them in the #3 seed. If they lose, Indianapolis can move up with a win over the lowly Jaguars and Cincinnati would be in the #4 seed and have to face Kansas City in the first round. A win for Cincinnati also keeps them alive for a first round bye, should New England lose at home to the Buffalo earlier in the day.

Given that this game means equally much for both teams, I really like Cincinnati at lot. They’ve been a dominant home team this season, not just winning all 7 of their home games, one of three home teams to have done so, but also covering in all 7 of their home games, the only team in the league to have done so. Not only that, their margin of victory in those 7 games has been 17.71 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we’re getting the Bengals as mere 5.5 point home favorites over the Ravens is a gift.

Even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance, we’re getting line value here. The Bengals are a legitimately dangerous team. They are actually better than their 10-5 record, with the 6th best point differential in the NFL and they’re doing that despite being pretty average in turnover margin (+2). In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 4th, moving the chains at a 73.54% rate, as opposed to 66.36% for their opponents, a differential of 7.18%.

The Ravens are a solid football team, certainly better than the final score last week against New England would have suggested, but we’re still getting line value with the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a mere 66.01% rate, with their defense keeping them afloat, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 65.47% rate, a differential of 0.54%, which ranks 14th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9.5, instead of 5.5, again even before we take into account the Bengals’ home dominance.

This line shifted from 3.5 to 5.5 over the past week, which is a significant line movement, but this line never should have been at 3.5 in the first place. That was a huge overreaction to the Bengals’ loss in Pittsburgh, which should not have been seen as a surprise because they aren’t nearly the same team on the road this season. Besides, Joe Flacco’s knee injury may be a significant concern. It certainly seemed to be bothering him in the loss in New England, as he was noticeably limping and completed 22 of 38 for 260 yards and 2 interceptions, much of which came in garbage time.

It’s also worth noting that the Ravens aren’t usually a good road team. Since 2008, the first season of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, the Ravens outscore opponents by an average of 10.10 points per game, as opposed to 1.28 points per game on the road. That’s not unique to the Flacco/Harbaugh era, as they get outscored by an average of 0.95 points per game on the road since 2002, while they outscore opponents by 7.98 points per game at home. I don’t think you can use the usual 3 point adjustment for home field in their games.

The only thing Baltimore has going for them is they usually play well after getting blown out in the Jim Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, going 8-1 ATS after a double digit loss since 2008. They usually don’t get blown out twice in a row. However, there’s just so much going in Cincinnati’s favor that this is my Pick of the Week, in a week where there aren’t a lot of good side to be confident in, because of the nature of week 17.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 17

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 407 67 62 26 1 24 80.75%
2 San Diego 354 38 51 20 1 35 78.56%
3 New Orleans 338 43 57 19 9 32 76.51%
4 Chicago 327 41 64 21 5 29 75.56%
5 Carolina 303 36 64 17 3 27 75.33%
6 Philadelphia 334 48 77 18 6 27 74.90%
7 Green Bay 326 39 62 23 4 35 74.64%
8 Dallas 304 43 74 17 1 27 74.46%
9 Detroit 336 43 65 34 9 22 74.46%
10 New England 354 41 74 19 8 37 74.11%
11 Atlanta 310 35 63 27 8 25 73.72%
12 Cincinnati 309 44 72 26 9 20 73.54%
13 Seattle 287 39 68 19 5 33 72.28%
14 Tennessee 294 37 72 24 6 26 72.11%
15 Pittsburgh 295 35 71 22 6 30 71.90%
16 Indianapolis 295 35 71 14 7 37 71.90%
17 Kansas City 301 38 83 18 6 26 71.82%
18 Washington 317 34 75 30 12 24 71.34%
19 Arizona 310 34 75 29 3 32 71.22%
20 San Francisco 267 37 73 18 3 32 70.70%
21 Minnesota 290 39 69 30 9 30 70.45%
22 St. Louis 271 31 71 19 12 27 70.07%
23 Cleveland 286 29 80 27 14 26 68.18%
24 Oakland 258 31 79 30 4 29 67.05%
25 Houston 288 25 83 27 11 34 66.88%
26 Miami 260 31 80 23 8 34 66.74%
27 Tampa Bay 251 26 82 20 12 28 66.11%
28 Buffalo 282 29 92 27 7 34 66.03%
29 Baltimore 278 25 84 26 8 38 66.01%
30 NY Giants 266 27 83 41 6 23 65.70%
31 NY Jets 258 23 83 29 7 33 64.90%
32 Jacksonville 252 22 90 25 15 24 64.02%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Baltimore 263 29 95 20 6 33 65.47%
2 Cincinnati 265 27 83 28 9 28 66.36%
3 Seattle 271 19 74 37 7 26 66.82%
4 Buffalo 284 35 91 29 6 32 66.88%
5 Carolina 258 19 67 29 8 32 67.07%
6 San Francisco 265 28 82 28 12 21 67.20%
7 Kansas City 284 31 82 35 9 26 67.45%
8 Detroit 271 32 78 20 3 40 68.24%
9 Arizona 290 32 82 30 9 28 68.37%
10 New Orleans 256 29 78 18 6 27 68.84%
11 Houston 265 39 85 10 5 32 69.72%
12 NY Jets 275 34 75 12 10 37 69.75%
13 Miami 305 29 72 24 7 37 70.46%
14 New England 319 34 76 29 14 25 71.03%
15 Pittsburgh 288 38 74 18 8 31 71.33%
16 NY Giants 315 33 77 25 9 28 71.46%
17 Cleveland 311 40 84 19 5 30 71.78%
18 Indianapolis 300 34 70 25 7 29 71.83%
19 Denver 322 42 82 25 10 25 71.94%
20 Tennessee 310 35 71 21 4 38 72.03%
21 Tampa Bay 303 34 62 31 5 32 72.16%
22 Philadelphia 347 35 71 28 11 29 73.32%
23 St. Louis 317 37 68 29 7 24 73.44%
24 Oakland 302 44 71 22 4 26 73.77%
25 Green Bay 313 42 65 20 7 30 74.42%
26 San Diego 305 34 60 17 6 28 75.33%
27 Atlanta 310 43 56 19 4 35 75.59%
28 Jacksonville 330 46 70 21 3 26 75.81%
29 Washington 315 50 66 23 5 22 75.88%
30 Minnesota 354 50 70 20 7 27 76.52%
31 Chicago 328 44 56 26 4 28 76.54%
32 Dallas 367 47 56 27 8 28 77.67%

 

Differential

Team
1 Denver 8.81%
2 Carolina 8.26%
3 New Orleans 7.67%
4 Cincinnati 7.18%
5 Detroit 6.22%
6 Seattle 5.46%
7 Kansas City 4.37%
8 San Francisco 3.50%
9 San Diego 3.22%
10 New England 3.08%
11 Arizona 2.86%
12 Philadelphia 1.58%
13 Pittsburgh 0.56%
14 Baltimore 0.54%
15 Green Bay 0.22%
16 Tennessee 0.09%
17 Indianapolis 0.07%
18 Buffalo -0.85%
19 Chicago -0.98%
20 Atlanta -1.87%
21 Houston -2.84%
22 Dallas -3.21%
23 St. Louis -3.37%
24 Cleveland -3.60%
25 Miami -3.72%
26 Washington -4.54%
27 NY Jets -4.86%
28 NY Giants -5.76%
29 Tampa Bay -6.05%
30 Minnesota -6.07%
31 Oakland -6.72%
32 Jacksonville -11.79%

 

Projected Week 17 Lines

NE/BUF 6.93
MIA/NYJ 4.13
PIT/CLE 7.16
CIN/BAL 9.64
IND/JAC 14.86
TEN/HOU 5.93
SD/KC 1.85
DEN/OAK 12.53
PHI/DAL 1.79
NYG/WAS 1.78
CHI/GB 1.80
DET/MIN 9.28
NO/TB 16.72
CAR/ATL 7.13
SEA/STL 11.84
ARZ/SF 2.36

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2013 Week 16 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 16

Straight Up: 12-4

Against the Spread: 8-8

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 1-0

Medium Confidence: 2-4

Low Confidence: 2-2

No Confidence: 2-2

Upset Picks: 3-1

2013

Straight Up: 161-78-1 (.674)

Against the Spread: 139-94-7 (.597)

Pick of the Week: 9-6-1

High Confidence: 22-8

Medium Confidence: 31-23

Low Confidence: 38-24-2

No Confidence: 39-33-4

Upset Picks: 27-25

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2014 Head Coaching Candidates

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

Jay Gruden

Cincinnati OC, Age 47 in 2014

Gruden has done a fantastic job in Cincinnati getting the most out of Andy Dalton as their offensive coordinator, since taking over in 2011. He’s drawn the respect of the rest of the league and has been considered for head coaching jobs in the past, but has maintained a stance that he’s not ready to be an NFL head coach. Maybe this year he’ll have interest.

Greg Roman

San Francisco OC, Age 42 in 2014

Greg Roman is another guy that has drawn interest from around the league in terms of him being an NFL head coach and if the 49ers hadn’t made long playoff runs in each of the past two years, he might already have his own team. Teams usually like to have their head coach in place by mid-January, so assistants whose teams are still playing at that point are at a disadvantage. If the 49ers don’t make a long playoff run, Roman will be a hot commodity. He and Jim Harbaugh have been tied at the hip since he took over as Stanford’s offensive coordinator in 2009 and many around the league see him as a Jim Harbaugh-lite.

Darrell Bevell

Seattle OC, Age 44 in 2014

Last season, the Seahawks lost defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where the successful defensive coordinator became the new head coach. They could face a similar situation with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell this season. Bevell was hand-picked by Pete Carroll and has been the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator for each of the past 3 seasons and over the past 2 seasons he’s helped Russell Wilson develop from an overlooked 3rd round pick into one of the best signal callers in the NFL.

Ken Whisenhunt

San Diego OC, Age 52 in 2014

Ken Whisenhunt was Arizona’s head coach from 2007-2012, going 45-51 and making a Super Bowl. When he was fired, it was a little bit of a surprise and he could certainly be seen as a capable head coach by teams around the league this off-season, especially after he redeemed himself in San Diego, doing a masterful job helping turn around the career of Philip Rivers.

Todd Bowles

Arizona DC, Age 51 in 2014

When the Dolphins fired Tony Sparano in 2011, Todd Bowles took over as the interim head coach for the final few games of the season. He’s yet to really be considered for a head coaching job, but that could just be because he’s never had a lot of coordinator experience. However, in his first full season as a defensive coordinator this season, the long-time secondary coach has led one of the best stop units in the NFL in Arizona.

Mike Zimmer

Cincinnati DC, Age 58 in 2014

Mike Zimmer has been Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator since 2008, which is a very long time for someone to stay in one job in the NFL. He’s been very good, especially over the past few seasons as Cincinnati’s defense has been one of the better defenses in the NFL and helped carry the Bengals to 3 straight post-season appearances. Before that, he did a very good job as the defensive coordinator in Dallas from 2000-2006 (with a one year stop in Atlanta in between). He’s gotten some interest in the past as a head coaching candidate, but nothing substantial. Perhaps this is the year he’ll do the rounds in the interview process and possibly end up as a head man. There’s also the possibility he has no desire to move beyond the defensive coordinator position, where he’s been in the NFL for 14 seasons, which is fine because he’s very good at it.

Bob Sutton

Kansas City DC, Age 63 in 2014

Bob Sutton has done a fantastic job as the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator this season and has been in the NFL since 2000, in a variety of capacities with the New York Jets, including defensive coordinator and assistant head coach. He also has experience as a head coach, coaching at the United States Military Academy from 1991-1999. His age could work against him, but he’ll get some looks this off-season.

Vic Fangio

San Francisco DC, Age 56 in 2014

Like San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Vic Fangio might have his own team already if the 49ers hadn’t made long playoff runs in each of the past two seasons. Also like Roman, Fangio has been bound at the hip with Jim Harbaugh for a few years, coming over with him from Stanford, where he was the defensive coordinator in 2010. In the NFL, he’s coordinated a defense that has been among the league best in each of the last three years. If the 49ers don’t go on another long playoff run, Fangio could easily be elsewhere as a head coach in 2014.

Art Briles

Baylor HC, Age 59 in 2014

While some of the big name college head coaches like Stanford’s David Shaw and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin probably aren’t going anywhere, we could still see at least one college head coach making the leap to the NFL this season. Art Briles has done a great job turning around Baylor’s football program, taking it from a 3-9 team with a 0-8 record in the Big-12 in 2007 to an 11-1 team with an 8-1 Big-12 record in 2013, producing big seasons from quarterbacks Robert Griffin and Bryce Petty along the way. If Mike Shanahan is not back in Washington next season, Briles would figure to be the favorite to replace him, reuniting with Griffin in DC.

Bill O’Brien

Penn State HC, Age 45 in 2014

Bill O’Brien is another college head coach who could make the leap. O’Brien has an NFL background, being part of the Patriots’ coaching staff from 2007-2011, including offensive coordinator in 2011. As head coach of Penn State, O’Brien has done a fantastic job in a near impossible situation, taking over for Joe Paterno after the Jerry Sandusky scandal, leading them to 8-4 and 7-5 seasons. It’s no secret he’d like to return to the NFL as a head coach if an opportunity presents itself as he’s trying to get the buyout in his contract reduced even further and I think an opportunity will present itself.

Lovie Smith

Ex-Chicago HC, Age 56 in 2014

Lovie Smith is one of just a few head coaches to be fired after a 10+ win season over the past 25 years or so and it was kind of a surprise when he was let go. The Bears’ defense has noticeably missed his leadership this season. Smith was out of the NFL this season, but only because he was collecting a salary from the Bears either way. After a year off, it’s widely assumed he’ll try to come back to the NFL and more likely than not he’ll have a job waiting for him. As head coach of the Chicago Bears, he went 81-63 in 9 seasons and made a Super Bowl.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

Aaron Rodgers is out for this one and, given that, it’s a little absurd that the Packers are favorites here at home. The Steelers are better than their 6-8 record. They’ve just been killed by a 1-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. In DVOA, they rank 13th. They are moving the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 70.64% for their opponents, a differential of 0.95% that ranks 13th in the NFL.

The Packers are moving the chains at a 74.28% rate, as opposed to 74.32% for their opponents, a differential of -0.04% that ranks 15th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be at about 2, which is right around where it is (2.5), but, remember, much of what’s buoying the Packers’ rank in rate of moving the chains differential was done when Aaron Rodgers was the starter. Given that it’ll be Matt Flynn here this week, it’s absurd that they’re favored. The Steelers might have the better defense and offense in this one and they’re getting points.

Matt Flynn’s numbers since joining the Packers are pretty good, as he’s completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. However, you have to consider that in 3 of the 4 games he’s played, he faced 3 of the worst defenses in the NFL (Minnesota, Atlanta, Dallas). You can’t ignore his performance against Detroit, when he completed 10 of 20 for 139 yards and a pick in a 40-10 loss on Thanksgiving. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s at least comparable to Detroit’s. Flynn won’t have nearly the success he’s had against cupcake defenses.

Speaking of cupcake defenses, Matt Flynn shredded a Dallas defense that is worst in the NFL last week, in an upset comeback win by 1 point. They could suffer a hangover effect after such a big win. Home favorites are 24-40 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more. On top of that, Pittsburgh is in a great spot with no distractions left on their schedule, as they only face Cleveland in Pittsburgh next week. Teams are 116-86 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Packers are going to have a hard time beating a superior, focused opponent at home, especially if they’re hung over after last week, and the fact that we’re getting points with Pittsburgh just sweetens the deal. I have a good deal of confidence in the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Green Bay Packers 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that ranks 16th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 76.20% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 0.75% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Eagles are a better team with Nick Foles under center, which is why the Eagles are a better team in spite of that. Nick Foles has been incredible on the season, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 9.02 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles are 7-2 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

Of course, that assumes normal circumstances and that this game means the same thing to these teams equally. This game could be meaningless to the Eagles if the Cowboys win earlier in the day, because they can’t clinch the division or be eliminated in this one. They might not rest their starters or anything, but that still could affect their motivation, especially against a Chicago team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Even if Dallas loses, the Eagles still could have their motivation affected because they know they can still clinch next week in Dallas, while Chicago is in a much bigger fight. They also might not be preparing for this game with the same urgency of the Bears, assuming a Dallas win against the hapless Redskins.

There are seeding consequences related to this game as if both teams were to win their respective divisions, the winner of this game would be the 3 seed and the loser would be the 4 seed, but there’s really not a big difference between a home game against San Francisco and a home game against New Orleans/Carolina, so these teams might not care about seeding. This is still a bigger game for the Bears. Of course, this line does seem to take that into account as it’s at 3, which suggests these two teams are equal. We’ve already established that really isn’t true. I’m still taking the Bears, but I’m not confident at all. I might change my mind on that pre-game if the line stays in the same place and the Cowboys win though, so stay tuned.

Update: The Cowboys won earlier today, so this game becomes meaningless for Philadelphia. I’m raising this to a low confidence pick at the new line of 2.5, but I’m not confident enough to put money on it.

Chicago Bears 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Chicago +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Jets, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

On one hand, the Jets are in a sandwich spot here, coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and before a bigger game against Miami next week. Teams are 81-98 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-102 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. This is a classic rest game situation as the Jets could give less than 100% for an easier game in between two much harder games.

We’re also getting line value with the Browns as the Jets are secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league worst 63.41% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -6.23%. This makes sense as their -121 point differential is the 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only Houston, Washington, and Jacksonville. The Browns aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02%, which is 23rd in the NFL. However, this line suggests these two teams are essentially even, which I don’t think is true. That suggests this line should be at a straight up pick.

On the other hand, the Jets usually bounce back off a loss well. The Jets are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread off of a loss on the season. They’re also a much better home team than road team this season. They are 5-2 straight up and against the spread at home, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 0.86 points per game. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 16.43 points per game. At home off of a loss, they are 4-1 ATS this season.

That’s because Geno Smith has been so much better at home on the road. On the road, he’s been downright abysmal, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He hasn’t been great at home, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, that’s so much better than he’s been on the road (a QB rating of 70.0, as opposed to 55.9 on the road) and he’s been good enough for their strong defense to carry them to at least some success.

Also, the Browns are not in a good spot either, as, like the Jets, they have a more important game next week, which could keep them from covering the spread. Next week they go to Pittsburgh and teams are 48-75 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, the Browns are far from full strength as they’ll likely be without Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Desmond Bryant.

Haden is easily their best coverage defensive back. Jordan Cameron is a valuable #2 option in the passing game. Now the Jets just have to game plan for Josh Gordon, which will make it much easier to stop him. Desmond Bryant, meanwhile, was very much missed last week against the Bears as their strong run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 3rd in the NFL) allowed the Bears, led by Matt Forte, to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.8 yards per carry). Again, I have no confidence at all either way, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Jets as long as this line is below a field goal. If we were getting field goal protection, I might take the Browns. That’s how close this is.

New York Jets 13 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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