Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)
The Lions were sitting pretty atop the NFC North two weeks ago at 6-3. Now two weeks later? Well, they still lead the division, but largely because of the ineptitude of their division rivals over the past 2 weeks. The Lions have lost their last two games, both as favorites, to the Steelers and the Buccaneers and now sit at 6-5. However, I’m not going to knock them that much for those two losses. They were in tough spots in each game, coming off of a close win in Chicago before the Pittsburgh game and then going into a divisional Thursday Night Game after the Tampa Bay game. Both teams are also better than their records.
The Lions are also -8 in turnovers over the past 2 games. The fact that both games have even been close in spite of that is an accomplishment in itself. Turnover margins are pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis and the Lions were +1 on the season before the last two games so I don’t think it’s something that’s necessarily going to hurt them here again. Assuming it doesn’t, they should win pretty easily here. They’re still moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, a differential that is still a solid 11th in the NFL.
They deserve to be favored by more than 6 over the Packers as long as Aaron Rodgers is out, which he will be. This game is in Detroit and home field is usually 3 points, so this line is saying the Lions are only 3 points better than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think that’s true at all. Since he went down, the Packers have lost at home to the Bears and Eagles, by a combined 21 points, lost in New York to the Giants by 14, and tied at home with the lowly Vikings.
You could argue Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy for how poorly his team has fared without him. Matt Flynn will probably be an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, but I’m not convinced Flynn is even an average backup at this point, considering his struggles in the year and a half he was away from Green Bay. He’s posted some nice stats in Green Bay’s system, including 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tolzien, forcing a tie last week, but it’s not a big enough sample size for me to be convinced. Besides, Minnesota, who he faced last week, has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Also, don’t forget how big of a game this is for the Lions. They have lost their last 9 Thanksgiving games by an average of 19.4 points per game, including 3 to the Packers by an average of 15 points per game. They’ve also lost 22 of their last 25 to the Packers in general, getting outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game across all 25 games. They have a lot of demons to vanquish and a perfect opportunity to do so with Aaron Rodgers out.
This is the first time they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving since before the losing streak began and only the 5th time they’ve been favored against the Packers since the 22 of 25 stretch began. This is only the 2nd time they’ve been favored over the Packers by more than a field goal. I think they’re going to give it everything they have to capitalize on this opportunity and I really think a big part of the reason why they fell flat last week was because this game this week meant so much to them. I think they’ll play like it.
Also, the Packers could very well be exhausted in this one, on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters last week. Teams are 4-8 ATS since 1989 off of a tie in general, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. Also worth noting, teams are 3-17 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game, including 1-13 ATS on the road, which also makes sense. And the majority of those teams didn’t even go the full overtime as the Packers are just the 3rd team in that time frame to play a Thursday Night game off of a tie. The previous two both failed to cover, losing against the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This is a near impossible situation for the Packers, especially at 1 PM start.
There is one reason why this isn’t a bigger play and that’s the situation both of these teams are in. The Lions are favorites before being underdogs in Philadelphia next week, while the Packers will host the Falcons next week. Teams are 52-86 ATS since 2008 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. However, I don’t think you can just blindly follow that trend. I don’t think it’s very likely the Lions get caught looking forward to Philadelphia next week when they have this incredible opportunity this week. I like the Lions a lot. They are also my Survivor Pick.
Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 20 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: Detroit -6
Confidence: Medium
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