Year: 2013

Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Raiders, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (4-6)

The Raiders may be 4-6, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their 4 wins have come against teams that are a combined 11-29. They are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. Their defense has been surprisingly competent, but their offense has been extremely limited this year. Matt McGloin had a strong debut last week, completing 18 of 32 for 197 yards and 3 touchdowns, stealing the starting job away from a struggling Terrelle Pryor.

However, Raiders fans anointing him a starting caliber quarterback need to remember that they did the same thing with Terrelle Pryor a few weeks ago. I’ll need a few more weeks to be sold on McGloin, especially since he’s 7 months removed from no one drafting him. McGloin will also be hurt this week by the absence of his #1 receiver Denarius Moore. He’s one of only two Raiders receivers who have at least 250+ receiving yards.

The Titans, meanwhile, are a solid football team. They may be 4-6, but 4 of their losses came against top-10 teams, Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, and Indianapolis and they were competitive in 3 of those. Jake Locker is out for the season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a huge downgrade. Locker is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, while Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups. They have a solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty, Derrick Morgan and others and they should be able to frustrate McGloin in his 2nd start without his #1 receiver. I’m not really confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 20 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: Low

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The Steelers may be 4-6, but they’re better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 13th in the NFL. They are 4-2 since the bye, after their 0-4 start. They started the season with a -11 turnover margin in the first 4 games of the season, recovering 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Since then, their turnover margin has been +3 over the past 6 games and their rate of recovering fumbles has increased to 34.8%.

That was predictable and they seem to have put their issues behind them, beating 4 teams with a combined 19-22 record in the process, so they aren’t exactly beating up on cupcakes. They did get blown out in New England, but there’s not a ton of shame in that and they could have easily won in Oakland as well, if they hadn’t allowed the longest touchdown run by a quarterback ever and miss several makeable field goals.

The Browns aren’t as good. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which ranks 24th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here, if it’s only by one point. Going into last week, they were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden wasn’t their starting quarterback, only losing in Kansas City in a close game. However, Jason Campbell fell apart last week, completing 27 of 56 for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. It’s hard to trust him this week. The Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Before the bye, the Rams beat the Colts in blowout fashion. However, there were a lot of fluky things going on. They scored twice on return touchdowns, twice on long touchdowns, and only had one methodical touchdown drive. This forced the Colts to abandon their game plan, which made the deficit even worse. Take away the fluke plays and that’s a completely different game. This is still a team moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. With the exception of fluky wins against Indianapolis and Houston (same sort of thing), their wins have come by a field goal over Arizona and a pair of touchdowns over a Jacksonville team that has lost 9 games by double digits. On the other hand, they have 3 losses of 15 or more and 2 losses of 20 or more.

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. After their last such game, a 25 point win over Houston, they got destroyed by Carolina in a 30-15 loss. In fact, teams who win a game by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more are 5-18 ATS since 1989. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams don’t deserve to be favored over the Bears, even if it’s only by a point. At the end of the day, they have a decent defense and a backup quarterback.

The Rams are also in a terrible spot as teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2010 and the Rams have a much bigger game in San Francisco next week that could easily be their Super Bowl since they aren’t really in the playoff mix. The Bears, meanwhile, are very much in the playoff mix and should be focused here for the Rams. I do think they’re a little overrated as well, mostly because their defense is atrocious (they made Baltimore’s offense look competent last week) and missing key players. Offensively, I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown to keep this up.

Josh McCown is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions on this season, a QB rating of 100.0. This is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense. However, I am somewhat confident they should be able to beat the Rams in a game that pretty much has an even line.

Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6)

You could argue we’re getting line value with the Giants here. The Giants are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. They rank 27th and 26th respectively and are pretty equal, which is what this 2.5 point line suggests. However, the Cowboys are very banged up defensively, losing Sean Lee in the middle of their blowout loss in New Orleans. He won’t be back for this one, joining Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, who have essentially missed the season. They could really continue to struggle defensively.

The Giants, meanwhile, have won 4 straight. They haven’t faced a tough schedule over the past 4 games, but their turnover problems seem to be gone, as could be expected. That type of thing is very inconsistent and, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they are +5 in turnover margin over the past 4 games. The Cowboys have a strong turnover margin at +11. It’s one of the things they do well. However, that’s not sustainable going forward. Their 66.7% fumble recovery rate isn’t either. If we assume net zero turnovers in this game, which is always smart to do, that could easily favor the Giants.

However, the Giants are in an awful spot here as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs in Washington next week. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002. That’s impossible to ignore and essentially an auto-fade. On top of that, the Cowboys are divisional road dogs before being non-divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 43-29 ATS in since 2008. Combining that, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites, including 13-30 ATS in divisional games.

Also, the NFC East is 43-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 17-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 26-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which is why this isn’t a bigger play, but this is pretty much an auto-bet situation and the Giants’ defense isn’t great either. Of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve faced, 3 of them are not currently starters (Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Freeman), and the other is Scott Tolzien. The Cowboys could easily win a shootout here. It’s a strong play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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