Year: 2013

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-8

The Buccaneers’ near win in Seattle last week just reinforces how difficult football is to predict and how ridiculous it is to suggest that any team is going to go winless (or undefeated) with half a season left to play. Winless teams can be very dangerous down the stretch and there’s value with betting on them as winless teams are 45-17 ATS in week 9 or later. This week Buccaneers get a Miami team that is distracted, to put it lightly, and not as good as their record. That game is in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers have a very good chance to get their first win of the season.

Week 9 Studs

QB Mike Glennon

RB Mike James

FB Erik Lorig

DT Gerald McCoy

SS Mark Barron

Week 9 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

ROLB Jonathan Casillas

MLB Mason Foster

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their wins came at home by 3 over Cincinnati, who isn’t a very good road team (loss in Cleveland, Miami, almost in Buffalo), at home by 1 over Minnesota, who isn’t good, by 17 in Pittsburgh, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, at home against the Giants by 6, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, and last week in Green Bay against Seneca Wallace. Their losses, meanwhile, have come in Washington, at home for New Orleans, who isn’t a good road team, and in Detroit against this Lions team, who was actually facing a rough trend the last time around with Green Bay on deck. The Bears rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential.

Things aren’t going to get better with Jay Cutler right? Well, not necessarily. Remember, Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate.

They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring. Coming into the season, they had lost top defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and 4 of their top-5 defensive players. Those 4 players have all played worse this season and the other one, Henry Melton, is one for the season with injury. Also dealing with injuries are Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. The latter is out indefinitely, while the former is a shell of his former self as a result. As I said, things are only going to get worse.

Also, the Bears’ supporting cast could slack off and ease up with Cutler returning. They’ve done a great job in his absence and they might feel they no longer have to do that with Cutler back. On top of that, Cutler himself could be very limited. Remember, he was supposed to miss about a month. He’ll be exactly 3 weeks removed from the injury when he returns this week. It’s not a high confidence pick or anything, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against spread: Detroit PK

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Steelers, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)

The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense.

The Bills have a similar differential, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They are better than their record, beating the Dolphins in Miami, the Panthers and Ravens at home, and almost beating both New England and Cincinnati. Last week, their offense outscored the Chiefs’ offense, despite starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and only lost because of two return touchdowns by the Chiefs’ defense.

This week, they get EJ Manuel back from injury, which could improve their offense. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% off of an extended absence and it’s not like he was playing great football before he was hurt. He’s actually still ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst ranked quarterback ahead of only Geno Smith despite the limited playing time. Thaddeus Lewis, meanwhile, ranks 25th out of 35. Not great, but better than Manuel. Statistically, Manuel is completing 56.7% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions with a slightly better quarterback rating.

Manuel is going to be better long-term most likely and it’s good to get him playing time, but, as for the short term, all you can say for sure is that he’ll be better than Jeff Tuel, and the rest of the team might slack off around him with their quarterback back. Their offense could still really struggle, even against Pittsburgh’s aging defense. They’ll need to establish CJ Spiller, who finally broke out last week, rushing for 116 yards on 12 attempts. There’s no guarantee he can do that again, especially since he admitted his ankle is still hurting him. On top of that, all of the Bills’ impressive performances have been at home this season. On the road, they are just 1-3 ATS.

If I had to take a side, I guess it would be the Bills. I’m not confident at all, but I guess if I had to bet on something, it would be CJ Spiller continuing to play well and the Bills being in the better spot distractions wise. There’s much less likely to be distracted with a home game against the Jets on deck, whereas the Steelers have to deal with a better Detroit team next week. Teams are 114-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. I have no confidence though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Packers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional road dogs before being divisional home favorites, when they face the Redskins in Philadelphia next week. Teams are 47-36 ATS in that spot since 2008. Putting them both together, road underdogs are 84-49 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

However, we can’t purely use trends here because of the uncertainty of Green Bay’s quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers is out. That’s certain, but that’s about it. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily last week, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. However, Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better and they’re probably worse. Wallace will have a whole week to practice as a starter this week and he’ll be prepared to play this time around.

That could really help him and the rest of the Packers’ veteran team could rise up around him. Likewise, the Packers’ coaching staff could get the most out of him the way they did Matt Flynn a few years back. This line shifted about 10 points from last week to this week, from 11 to 1 and the public is all over Philadelphia. That’s a large line movement. It might be justified because Aaron Rodgers is so great, but there’s a chance it’s not, at least in this first game. Because of that, I can’t confidently pick a side. If I had to, I’d take Philadelphia, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)

On paper, this line might be a little bit too high. The Colts are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 7, instead of 9.5. That being said, that doesn’t take into account that the Rams have lost Sam Bradford for the season.

Kellen Clemens has taken over and has completed 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The supporting cast around him has stepped up and the Rams have only lost by a combined 12 points in their last 2 games, decent playing a top level Seattle team and a decent Tennessee team. However, this week they go on the road, which is a different story. This line might even too small.

Indianapolis could be distracted though. They have a big game against the Titans in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. It’s tough to pick a side though. This line shifted from 12 to 9.5 in the past week for no real reason. I think I’ll just take the Colts as long as the line is lower than 10 points. I’m not confident though.

Indianapolis Colts 23 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

I wish I had gotten this line when it was at Atlanta +6 or higher. Despite all of the action being on Seattle, the line is dropping significantly from +6.5 at some places to now +5 at some places. It’s obvious that this is a trap line and the sharps are all over the underdogs. It’s not hard to see why. The Seahawks have not been playing well of late, thanks largely to injuries to guys like Russell Okung and Bobby Wagner. Okung remains out and, while Wagner returned a couple of weeks ago, but he hasn’t been nearly the same player thanks to a high ankle sprain, something that could linger. Also out is Sidney Rice, who tore his ACL and Percy Harvin has yet to return to replace him. He’s not expected back this week.

The Seahawks have won each of their last 2 games, but they won by a combined 8 points against the Rams and Buccaneers, among two of the worst teams in the NFL. Particularly bad was their mere 3 point home win over the Buccaneers in overtime. The Buccaneers are winless and the Seahawks are supposed to be a dominant home team. The Seahawks are in a bad spot here as road favorites off of back to back wins as favorites in which they failed to cover. Teams are 13-23 ATS in that spot since 1989. They’re also in a bad spot coming off of last week’s big overtime win. Teams are 22-41 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime home win.

Because of their recent struggles, the Seahawks aren’t really as good as their record. They are 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. The Falcons, meanwhile, might be better than their record, meanwhile. Remember, they are just 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, a differential that is 26th in the NFL. They’re also getting healthier as this is Steven Jackson’s 3rd game back and Roddy White returns. Even with the reverse line movement, we are still getting a little bit of line value with the Falcons before we even get into trends.

Two spots the Falcons have always been good in are at home and off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. They are 35-9 straight up at home under Matt Ryan in 2008, including 26-17 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 19-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as an underdog. They’ve struggled a bit more than usual in those situations this year, but it’s still worth noting. Meanwhile, the Falcons have no distractions that would prevent them from possibly pulling an upset here, with a trip to Tampa Bay next on the schedule. Teams are 35-11 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites since 1989. I wish this line was still above the key number of 6 so it could be a significant play, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else.

The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals here this week. The Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If you use rate of moving the chains differential to determine the line, the Texans should actually be favored by a little bit, before you even get into their schedule.

Two uncertainties are why this isn’t a bigger play. One is that Gary Kubiak is out. They might rally together and win one for Kubiak before he returns next week, but they could also look as lost as they did last week without him. Interim Head Coach Wade Phillips has struggled as a Head Coach in the past. On top of that, being the Head Coach could distract him from putting everything into calling plays for the defense. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is now the primary offensive play caller.

The second reason is just that, going into his 3rd career start, the Cardinals could have enough tape on Keenum to figure out how to play him and expose why he went undrafted. The Colts did this to a large extent in the 2nd half last week. Keenum loves to throw it deep, but if you blitz him, like the Colts did often in the 2nd half, he doesn’t seem to be accurate enough to take advantage and he might even have trouble reading the blitz. Still, I like the Texans this week.

Houston Texans 20 Arizona Cardinals 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Houston +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-7)

The Redskins won a crazy home game against the Chargers last week in overtime, but that game might really hurt them here this week. Teams are 3-16 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game. It makes sense. Recovering from a longer game on a short week would obviously put you at a disadvantage. Teams usually don’t do well as favorites off of a home overtime win anyway, going 22-41 ATS since 1989 in that situation.

The Vikings aren’t a very good team, but the Redskins have a terrible defense that they can move the ball against and compete in this game. Christian Ponder completed 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception last week in Dallas against a weak Dallas defense. The Redskins allow opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate on the season. If Ponder, with Adrian Peterson, can move the ball well against the Cowboys in Dallas, he can do the same at home, where he’s been a lot better in his short career. It’s not a big play, but I expect the Vikings to win here over a tired Redskins team.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

The Ravens lost last week in Cleveland, but they return home this week, where they’ve been much better over the past few years. Since 2010, they are 25-4 straight up at home, with 2 losses to the Steelers, a loss to the 2013 Packers, and a loss to the 2012 Broncos. They’ve been home underdogs just 4 times, covering in 3 (the Broncos game was the exception). The Bengals don’t deserve to be favorites here. Even if you don’t take into account the Ravens’ home field advantage, I think that’s the case.

As bad as the Ravens have been this season, they still rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, as their strong defense is limiting opponents to a 68% rate, as opposed to 69% for their struggling offense. The Bengals are better, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, but not enough to be favored. The Ravens are also in a good dynamic as home underdogs off of a loss as road favorites. Teams are 55-40 ATS in this situation since 1989.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are not nearly as good on the road as at home. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. Last week’s overtime loss in Miami puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 13-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime. They are going to have a hard time concentrating this week after last week’s rough loss.

That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer. If the Ravens’ tough defense shuts them down in Baltimore, they’re going to have a very hard time winning, as bad as the Ravens’ offense is. The Ravens should pull the home upset here and stay in the running for a playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Medium

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