Year: 2013

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Giants, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at New York Giants (2-6)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Giants, however, sit at 2-6 and would need to go 5-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. The Giants have been playing better football of late, winning their last 2, as a result of a predictably improved turnover margin. However, turnovers aren’t their only problem. They have 145 first downs to 46 punts (3.15 to 1), while their opponents have 175 first downs to 40 punts (4.375). Besides, beating the Vikings and Eagles isn’t exactly impressive. I’m not sold they’re back.

In terms of rate of moving the chains, which factors in turnovers and fourth down failures in addition to first downs and punts, the Giants are moving the chains at a 66% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. That’s a differential that ranks 30th. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests that the Giants should only be favored by a point instead of 7.5. I don’t know if that’s 100% accurate, but we’re definitely getting line value with the Raiders, before we even take into account the six and six trend.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 89-66 ATS since 2002 in that spot and the Raiders go to Houston next week. This line has shifted from -5.5 to -7.5 in the past week after the Raiders big loss last week, shifting over the key numbers of 6 and 7. That’s significant and I think an overreaction. The Giants, meanwhile, usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later. There’s no guarantee that will continue with the Giants off to their worst 8 game start of that time period, but it’s worth noting.

There are two reasons why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. One is that the Raiders are a West Coast team on the East Coast at 1 PM. The second is just the possibility that the Giants are about to rip off a long winning streak, as they are one to do, and prove they are not the same team they were earlier this season. However, I don’t think they will. For various reasons, including injury, they just don’t have a lot of talent. Injuries have thinned their secondary, running game, and offensive line. Their defensive line is still fine, but injuries have limited Jason Pierre-Paul to the point where he is no longer the impact player they need him to be. They are way too reliant on Eli Manning and the passing game, which is hurt by the lack of supporting cast, struggles by Hakeem Nicks, and just a general disconnect between Eli Manning and his receivers. It’s a high confidence play on the Raiders.

New York Giants 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)

Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for instance, is 9-1 ATS off of a regular season bye since 2004, in his last 10 instances. The Broncos are in a very good position here as 7 point road favorites after a bye.

The Broncos are also in another good spot as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 38-22 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Broncos are a dominant team with a league leading +125 points differential. They’ve won 6 of their 8 games by 16 or more and they should win this one here by at least 7 with a bye off to prepare for the Chargers. This is my Pick of the Week.

Denver Broncos 38 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)

The Saints lost in New York last week to the Jets and it was viewed as a huge upset. Technically it was, the Saints were favored by 7 points, but I don’t know why anyone was shocked. The Saints lost in New England. The Patriots lost in New York. The Saints aren’t nearly as good of a team on the road as at home, but this week they return home. They’ve not only won 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton, but they’ve also covered 13 straight. In those 13 games, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 20.9 points per game. That’s average and I’d say the Cowboys are pretty average. They should get back to that this week. They’re also very good off of a loss over the past few years, going 19-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008.

Back to the Cowboys being an average team, they have a great offense which moves the chains at a 76% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. If there was any doubt they had a bad defense, they allowed Christian Ponder to complete 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception last week. Christian Ponder! The week before that, they allowed the Lions to generate 623 yards of offense and only almost won because they won the turnover battle by 4. They won’t be able to do that every week and their +10 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable going forward. They get DeMarcus Ware back this week, but that’s not going to solve all of their problems. Drew Brees is going to torch them. They seem to miss Rob Ryan, who, oddly enough, is the Saints’ defensive coordinator this year.

Ryan has done a great job with the Saints’ defense. Their numbers haven’t been as good lately as they’ve faced tougher competition, but they are still holding opponents to a 71% rate of moving the chains. This was after ranking 31st in points allowed last season and allowing the most yards in NFL history last season. Their offense is obviously still explosive, moving the chains at an 80% rate, giving them a differential that is 3rd in the NFL. They deserve to be favored more than 6.5 points, before you even take into account how good they are at home. This is going to be a rough situation for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints. They’re also my Survivor Pick this week.

New Orleans Saints 37 Dallas Cowboys 23 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The Dolphins haven’t had an ordinary week. They’ve spent a lot of the week answering questions about the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation and dealing with the NFL and the media. That’s a huge distraction, before you even get into the fact that this already weak offensive line is going to be missing 2 starters. I don’t have all of the information on the situation. Very few people do. But I’m starting to side with Incognito, considering all the people on Incognito’s side are players and ex-players and everyone on Martin’s side are media members who never played. I have to side with the players on a situation like this.

It’s an unfortunate situation, but it sounds like Martin was just going throw an NFL initiation and being toughened up by a veteran player and he just couldn’t handle it. It sounds like Incognito took a special interest into making sure Martin would succeed and was his friend. I’m not saying Incognito didn’t cross a line, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a bad guy. In other places in the world, Incognito would not be able to fit in. He couldn’t have a desk job or fit into the real world or anything, but he’s a great fit for the NFL, which isn’t really the real world.  The NFL isn’t the right place for Martin. By NFL standards, this guy is a huge pussy. He’s much better suited for a real job than Incognito. He should just do that. He has a degree from Stanford. He can still be very successful in his life. He shouldn’t have to play football.

Anyway, this situation is going to be a huge distraction for the Dolphins this week. As much as they want to say they are, they won’t be focused for this week, especially since they are playing the winless Buccaneers. After a certain point, there is value with betting on winless teams. Winless home dogs are 19-11 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989. They’ll be much, much more focused for this game than the Dolphins.

I don’t think there is as big of a talent disparity between these two teams as their record would suggest. In fact, the Dolphins actually rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 27th. The Dolphins’ offense is moving the chains at a 70% rate, largely due to poor offensive line play, which is only going to get worse, while the retooled defense isn’t doing their job, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate and only allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dolphins, but they’re better than their record (ask Seattle) and the Dolphins aren’t as good as their record. I think the Buccaneers pull the upset here against a distracted Miami team. As long as I’m getting a field goal with the Buccaneers, I have high confidence in them at least covering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

Team X is one of these teams. Team X has an explosive offense led by a dual threat quarterback drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft that moves the chains at an 81% rate and scores 25.5 points per game. They have a shutdown defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate and allows opponents to score 13.3 points per game, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their secondary doesn’t have a lot of recognizable names, but they are playing well as a unit and they are supported by a fantastic front 7, led by a big name, recognizable middle linebacker. Their rate of moving the chains differential is best in the NFL and their point differential of +98 is the 3rd best in the NFL and the best in the NFC. In terms of DVOA, they are 3rd in the NFL.

You might think Team X is the 49ers and the 49ers are certainly a very good football team, but that aforementioned Team X is actually the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are scoring a few more points per game, scoring 27.3 points per game, but they allow significantly more, allowing 18.1 points per game. Their point differential of +73 certainly is very good, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s, coming in 5th. In DVOA, they come in 6th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That differential is a solid 9th in the NFL, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s.

If you use rate of moving the chains to calculate a line, it would say that Carolina should be favored by 3 points. I don’t agree with that and you obviously can’t follow that blindly. The 49ers have been playing much better football over the past 4 games as compared to their first 3 games and they were so good in 2011 and 2012 that you can safely throw out the first 3 games of the season as a fluke. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL. But the Panthers are too. At the very least, we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers at +6.5. Remember, the Panthers are ranked higher than the 49ers by Football Outsiders in DVOA. In spite of this, most of the action is on San Francisco and the line is actually moving down. That suggests it’s a trap line and/or the sharps are on Carolina.

The 49ers could also be caught looking forward to the Saints next week. Teams are 61-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Panthers face the Patriots next week back in Carolina, but that’s a different story. For one, New England is a non-conference opponent so it won’t be as big of a distraction. They could also be favorites, especially if they have a good showing here this week. I think the Panthers will play this one close and possibly even win.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

The Jaguars are not very good. That’s obvious. However, everyone covers at some point. There’s a time, place, and a line where you can take any team. I think this is it for the Jaguars, as 11.5 point underdogs. There’s actually some value in betting on winless teams after a certain point. Winless teams are 23-5 ATS as road dogs since 1989 in week 9 or later. Teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and possibly underrated at that situation. The Buccaneers were winless last week when they marched into Seattle and took them to overtime as 15 point underdogs before eventually losing by a field goal. The Titans aren’t as good as the Seahawks and they’re favored by almost as much here. That should tell you something.

The Titans could especially be overlooking them because they host the Colts in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. Along with that, divisional home favorites are 13-28 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of 10 or more are 10-26 ATS since 1989 before being divisional underdogs, including 7-14 ATS before being divisional home dogs. They’ll have a lot of trouble concentrating on the winless Jaguars with that game up next and, as they are an NFL team, the Jaguars are capable of taking advantage of that, no matter how bad they may seem.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +11.5

Confidence: Medium

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2013 Week 10 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Mike James (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.6%

Mike James’ busted out in his 2nd career start, rushing for 158 yards on 28 carries, with 2 catches for 8 yards and also a 2 yard touchdown pass. He won’t be that good every week (he had just 84 rushing yards on 24 carries in the game and a half prior after Doug Martin went down), but Martin could be out for the rest of the season and James is a clear lead back in the NFL. There’s always fantasy value with guys like that.

RB Rashad Jennings (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Surprise, Darren McFadden is hurt again. He’s expected to miss at least this week against the Giants, giving Jennings a start against one of the weaker defenses in the NFL. He only had 41 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Chargers in place of an injured McFadden earlier this year, but he also has 116 and 176 yard from scrimmage performances this season against the Redskins and Eagles respectively, after McFadden got hurt. He’s definitely going to be startable for at least a week.

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.8%

Dropson has come a long way. The raw rookie 2nd rounder has shed the Dropson moniker and broken out as the primary outside receiver in a suddenly explosive again New England offense. Fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins was a healthy scratch against the Steelers, while Dobson caught 5 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now has 18 catches for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last 4 games and is on pace for 55 catches for 807 yards and 7 touchdowns on the season. He could be worth a start weekly going forward if he and the rest of the Patriots’ offense keep this up and he’s definitely worth picking up.

QB Nick Foles (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.4%

Nick Foles tied the single game touchdown record against the Raiders, completing 22 of 28 for 406 yards and 7 touchdowns. Sure, his last appearance against Dallas left something to be desired to say the least, as he completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against one of the league’s worst stop units before leaving with a concussion. However, his other two appearances were much better and he has 13 touchdowns to 0 interceptions on the season, with a 62.7% completion percentage and an 8.71 YPA. He’ll be the starter until further notice and is definitely worth a pickup in fantasy if you still have an unresolved quarterback situation, or your quarterback is hurt or on bye this week.

WR Riley Cooper (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.9%

Riley Cooper seems to be Nick Foles’ preferred target. In Foles’ 3 starts, Cooper has 15 catches for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns. He caught 3 of Foles’ 7 touchdowns last week. Foles will continue being the starter for the Eagles until further notice so Cooper can be picked up in most leagues.

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

The Giants’ backfield is in such shambles that they’ve given Peyton Hillis 38 carries in their last 2 games combined after Brandon Jacobs, signed off the streets, got hurt. However, Andre Brown is expected to return from injury after the bye and could see significant snaps and carries in his season debut. He’s by far the Giants’ best passing down back and short yardage back even if everyone was healthy, but he could be a 20 touch a week back until David Wilson (out indefinitely) returns.

QB Case Keenum (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

Case Keenum hasn’t won either of his first two starts, but he’s definitely putting up numbers, completing 35 of 59 for 621 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Defenses may eventually catch up to him and he could be without offensive Head Coach Gary Kubiak for an extended period of time depending on the severity of his medical condition, but he’s worth a pickup in fantasy if you still have an unresolved quarterback situation, or your quarterback is hurt or on bye this week.

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.3%

Jonathan Stewart returned from injury this week and rushed for 43 yards on 9 carries with 3 catches for 22 yards in his season debut. He could see more action as he gets re-acclimated to game action and the Panthers certainly have an unresolved running back situation with DeAngelo Williams rushing for 4.1 yards per carry. There’s room for a talented and well paid back like Jonathan Stewart to eventually get 15+ touches per game. He’s worth a bench stash.

WR Mike Brown (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.7%

Mike Brown has 12 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games on just 112 routes run. Now Justin Blackmon is out for the season with a suspension, making Brown a starter. There’s going to be plenty of opportunity for garbage time yards in Jacksonville’s offense and, as long as Chad Henne is under center, they should be able to get the ball downfield to guys like Cecil Shorts and Mike Brown, who is becoming one of Henne’s favorite guys. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

TE Tim Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%

There are worse tight ends in deep leagues than Wright, a 6-3 220 pounder who isn’t a blocker at all, but can present mismatches in the passing game. Wright has 23 catches for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 5 weeks. He’s now the #2 target with Mike Williams out for the season. If you need a few points from a bye week filler at tight end or you play in a deep league, take a look at Wright.

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)

You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.

However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Raiders, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

The Raiders won a close home game against the Steelers as underdogs last week, winning 21-18, but they didn’t play that well last week. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals by the Steelers that easily could have been made, the Steelers might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). The Raiders are not nearly as good as their 3-4 record. They are moving the chains at a pathetic 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here at home over a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th with a differential around -3%.

The Raiders also could be completely flat after last week. Teams are 34-56 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 3 or fewer as underdogs, including 4-9 ATS as home favorites. If you go back to 1989 to get a better sample size, teams are 9-20 ATS as home favorites off of a close win as home underdogs. Going off of that, non-divisional home favorites are 61-84 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites and the Raiders go to New York this week to face the Giants. This is a complete trap game here for a Raider team that doesn’t deserve to be favorites in the first place.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Eagles. The first is that they have to go to Green Bay next week and teams are 33-68 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The second is I have no idea which Nick Foles is going to show up. Is he going to be the quarterback who completed 38 of 56 for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 quarters against the Giants and Buccaneers and looked like a potential franchise quarterback? Or is he going to be the quarterback who completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys before getting hurt? The Eagles should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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