Year: 2013

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Giants, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6)

The Giants have yet to win a game this season, but they played their best game of the season last week in Chicago. They moved the ball easily against, admittedly, a Chicago defense that is a shell of its former self thanks to injuries, age, and departed coaches. They still lost the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that turned out to be the decisive play on the final score. However, turnovers shouldn’t be as big of a problem going forward.

The Giants are a league worst -16 in turnovers, an average of -2.7 per game. That has them on a pace of -43 on the season, which would shatter the modern day record of -30. Even if they are all-time bad (which I don’t think they will be), they could still see their turnover margin cut in half going forward. This type of thing is inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as teams who have a margin of -4 in a given game average a margin of +0.0 the following game. The same is true for teams who have a margin of +4 in a previous game.

Their poor turnover margin is the result of two things, an unsustainably low fumble recovery percentage and an uncharacteristically high interception rate from Eli Manning. They are recovering just 26.7% of fumbles on the season. That won’t continue going forward. Eli, meanwhile, is throwing a pick on 6.5% of his attempts, a stark contrast from his career rate of 3.4%. I don’t expect that to continue. They are also -30 in points off of returns, thanks to two punt return touchdowns allowed and 3 defensive touchdowns allowed. That probably won’t be an issue going forward.

The Giants still aren’t moving the ball great on the season (66%), while their opponents are moving it at an 80% rate. However, they get by far their easiest opponent of the season this week in the Vikings and they get them off of 11 days rest, after playing the Bears on Thursday Night the previous week. The Vikings are 1-4 on the season and they’ve been every bit that bad.

They have benched both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel for Josh Freeman, who will make his debut for the team this week, roughly 2 weeks after being signed. That’s not a good sign, especially considering he was completing less than 50% of his passes in Tampa Bay before being cut. The Vikings are also going to be without Harrison Smith in this game, which won’t help matters at all defensively, where they are already allowing opponents to move the chains on a 79% rate.

Of course, the line does suggest that the Giants will get their first win, as they are favorites of 3.5 points, but I think they have a very good chance of covering the spread as well. The Vikings are in a tough spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, facing the Packers next week. Teams are 49-74 ATS in that spot since 2002. I wish this line was -2.5 or -3, but I still like the Giants to win by about a touchdown.

New York Giants 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0)

If Matt Schaub were starting in this one, Houston would have been my Pick of the Week. Seriously. I think they’re significantly better than their record right now. They are just getting killed in turnovers and points off of turnovers, two things that tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis. Since 1989, 35 teams have lost despite winning the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. 2 of those teams are the 2013 Houston Texans and the Texans also did so a 3rd time against Tennessee. One of those times was last week against the Rams.

The Texans have turned the ball over 15 times this year. 6 of those were returned for touchdown, an absurd 40% rate that would not have continued going forward. Between those 6 returns and a punt return touchdown they allowed, they are -6 in return touchdowns, -42 in points off of returns. Even if they were to continue their AFC worst -12 turnover margin, an average of -2 per game, they would not continue to get killed by return as much.

However, it was unlikely they’d continue that turnover margin. If they were to continue an average of -2 per game, they’d finish the season at -32, which would be a modern day record. I don’t think this team is all-time bad in turnovers, especially a year after they were +12 in turnover margin. And that highlights another point: that turnover margin is very random and inconsistent on a year to year and week to week basis. On average, teams that have a -4 turnover margin in a given game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week and the same is true for teams that have a +4 turnover margin in a given game.

That turnover margin was largely the result of an unsustainably low rate of recovering fumbles and an uncharacteristically high interception rate by Matt Schaub. Thus far, the Texans are recovering just 30.8% of fumbles, which won’t continue. Matt Schaub, meanwhile, was throwing an interception on 3.9% of his attempts, as opposed to 2.6%, which is his career rate. When he is under center going forward, that probably won’t continue.

The Texans are actually moving the chains pretty well, a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That’s a differential that’s 9th best in the NFL, while Kansas City sits at 4th. However, Houston has faced a much tougher schedule than Kansas City thus far as all 6 of their opponents this season are currently .500 or better. Kansas City’s opponents, meanwhile, are 11-25 combined. Houston with Matt Schaub is arguably the 2nd best team they’ve faced thus far this season behind Dallas, who only lost by 1 in Kansas City.

The Texans are also in a good spot off of back-to-back losses by 21+ or more. Teams are 37-20 ATS in this spot since 2002. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. The Texans have yet to cover a spread thus far this season, but that’s because they’ve been overrated thus far. That’s obviously no longer the case. Everyone covers a spread eventually, at least 3 or 4 times per year, even really bad teams, which is not what I think Houston is.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have been helped by an unsustainably high +12 turnover margin, largely as the result of a 64.7% fumble recovery rate. If Schaub were under center, I legitimately thought they had a good chance to pull the upset and, at the very least, cover. However, I don’t really feel like putting a ton of confidence in an undrafted rookie who has never attempted an NFL pass on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL, which is allowing a 62% rate of moving the chains, albeit against a weak schedule.

We could see the rest of the team, particularly their strong defense, step up and shut down a Kansas City offense that is moving the chains at a mere 69% rate, despite a weak schedule. That could definitely keep this came close and the fact that the line is so low makes me think that it’s a trap line, especially with the public all over Kansas City. If this line increases to a touchdown or more, I’ll increase this to medium confidence, but don’t put anything on this line yet. There’s a chance it increases in the wake of the Keenum announcement, but it’s been a few hours and nothing has really changed, so we’ll see.

Update: The line is still now at 7. I’m going to raise this to medium confidence.

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against spread: Houston +7

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

I’ve maintained the whole time that the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East, especially with the rest of the division flopping in spectacular fashion this season. The Eagles are the best of the rest this season, going 3-3 with wins over both the Giants and Redskins. However, their record is misleading as the combined record of the 3 teams they beat is 1-15 (Tampa Bay 0-5, NY Giants 0-6, Washington 1-4). That being said, this is probably the worst possible time for the Cowboys to be facing the Eagles in Philadelphia for reasons I’ll get into.

Because of that, I totally understand why the Eagles are favored. Nick Foles has been excellent in a game and a half in relief of an injured Michael Vick to the point where Chip Kelly essentially admitted that Vick won’t necessary get his job back when he’s healthy. I think that’s the right move. It was my suspicion all along that a washed up Vick was being made to look better than he is by Kelly’s offense and the way Foles has played in the last game and a half would seem to support that.

Foles obviously isn’t the runner Vick is, but you don’t need to be to run Chip Kelly’s offense. Kelly has done a great job catering to Foles’ strengths. He started out completing 16 of 25 for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants, which I guess isn’t incredibly impressive because it’s the Giants. However, the Buccaneers have a very solid defense and Foles torched them for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns on 22 of 31 passing. The Eagles are already moving the chains at a 79% rate on the season thanks to play makers like LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, but if Foles continues to be an upgrade over Vick, we could see that number go into the 80% range.

The Eagles haven’t faced a terrible tough schedule remember, but the Cowboys don’t present much of a challenge defensively either. They have talent, but they’re allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, as injuries have taken a huge toll on them. They were expected to start Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, and DeMarcus Ware on their defensive line, but Spencer is out for the season with knee surgery, Ratliff was waived/injured rather than being activated off of the PUP, and DeMarcus Ware will miss anywhere from a week to a month with an injury of his own.

That could be the killer considering how important he is to this defense. Defensive Line Coach Rod Marinelli has done a good job of coaching up backup caliber talents this season, but the downgrade from DeMarcus Ware to Kyle Wilbur might be just too much. Between that and youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter failing to adapt to Monte Kiffin’s scheme, the Cowboys have had a hard time preventing opponents from scoring without takeaways, forcing just 22 punts in 6 games. The Eagles should basically move the ball at will against them.

They might have to because the Eagles’ defense sucks even more. It’s one of the reasons why I think and have always thought the Cowboys will eventually win this division. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, a number that was much higher before they ran into the Giants’ and Buccaneers’ incompetent offenses. Even Mike Glennon lit up their secondary last week.

The Cowboys offense is playing very well this season, as anyone who saw them play the Broncos will tell you, as they are moving the chains at a 79% rate. Their offensive line is night and day better than last season, thanks to a huge bounce back season from Doug Free and the additions of Travis Frederick and Brian Waters. This is giving Tony Romo plenty of time to hit his talented receiving corps, despite the fact that Miles Austin really has yet to contribute this season.

However, injuries hurt them here as well as DeMarco Murray is out for at least a week with an injury (surprise). He was a big part of the reason why the Cowboys had one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL thus far this season. Joseph Randle will be his replacement and he struggled against the Redskins in relief of Murray, rushing for 17 yards on 11 carries, though he did score a touchdown. He could be better with a week of practice as the starter and against a weak Philadelphia defense and strong run blocking will help him, but it’s an obvious downgrade.

There is also a trend in the Eagles’ favor, as teams are 110-81 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter to that. The Cowboys covered in this spot last week against the Redskins. Of course, I’m, not exactly sure the Eagles are better or equal to the Cowboys.

Between the emergence of Foles and the Cowboys’ injuries, I’m less certain than I’ve been all season that the Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC East and I’m not certain at all they’ll be able to win in Philadelphia without their best defensive player and with a situational trend working against them. I also hate backing a publicly backed underdog, especially a publicly backed short underdog. The public feels the Cowboys will win. The odds makers feel the Eagles will win. And I hate siding with the public on an issue like that. However, I’m taking the Cowboys in an “upset” on principle. I’m not confident at all though. This game will be a shootout that could go either way.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Philadelphia Eagles 33 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)

I’ll admit I was pretty surprised when I saw the Steelers were favorites by 1.5 points here against the Ravens, which essentially suggests these two teams are even. However, it just seems like the odds makers think the Steelers are significantly better than their record. They were right about it last week, as the Steelers ended up being 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets despite being 0-4 and ended up winning. I can definitely understand the arguments in favor of the Steelers being underrated by the public.

They are healthier now offensively thanks to the returns of Heath Miller and Le’Veon Bell, who function as a reliable safety value and a talented running back respectively, two things the Steelers were sorely lacking to start the season. Defensively, they are still playing at an elite level, allowing 88 first downs to 29 punts and their -9 turnover margin probably isn’t indicative of what their turnover margin will be in the future. That type of thing is very random and unpredictable and largely the result of the Steelers’ 23.08% fumble recovery rate, which won’t continue going forward. Their defense is also too talented not to force takeaways. They forced their first 2 of the season against the Jets last week, after being kept out of that category during the first 4 weeks and I expect them to continue forcing turnovers at a reasonable rate.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are not the same team on the road, going 1-2 on the road this year, including a loss in Buffalo and a blowout loss in Denver. Since 2010, they are outscoring opponents by about 11 points per game at home and 1 point per game on the road. I don’t want to disagree with the odds makers on this one when their line is easily defendable, even though I was surprised by it. The public seems to be falling into their trap and taking the Ravens at a high rate. I love an opportunity to pick against a publicly backed underdog whenever it makes sense, but it’s not going to be a huge play.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

The Bills are very underrated because of a tough defense. Their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains on 72% of opportunities thanks to very strong front 7 play from guys like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and Kiko Alonso. They are doing this without their top two defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd playing a full set of snaps yet. Fortunately, they returned to limited action last week and seem set to play a full set of snaps this week, which will make their defense even tougher. As long as they can get at least passable quarterback play from Thaddeus Lewis, who played well in his debut last week, they have a very good chance to keep this game within the 7.5 point spread.

The Bills are just 2-4 on the season, but consider that they haven’t been favored in any of their first 6 games. They’ve faced a very tough schedule and yet they’ve lost just once by more than a touchdown and that was on a late pick six by Jeff Tuel against the Browns. They’ve been underdogs in all 4 of their home games, covering all 4 times, with upset wins over Baltimore and Carolina and near wins against the Bengals and Patriots. Those are all quality opponents. They’ve yet to cover on the road in 2 opportunities, but they hung tough with the Jets and Browns.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, remain overrated. They are 3-2, but just 1 of their wins came by more than 4 points. They are actually getting outscored on the season. When you look at how they are moving the chains, as opposed to how their opponents are, it’s even worse. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 71% rate. Ryan Tannehill is improved, but an offensive line that is on pace to set the NFL record for sacks allowed makes it tough to maintain consistent drives. The Bills’ tough front 4 will give them all sorts of trouble. Defensively, their retooled stop unit isn’t doing its job, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. That -7% differential is 28th in the NFL, worse than Buffalo, who, has I mentioned, has a great defense. This 7.5 point spread is ridiculous.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot with the Patriots on deck. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 18-48 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. I really like the underrated Bills’ chances to keep this within a touchdown against a distracted and overrated Dolphins team. The only reason the Bills are not a bigger play is because they will be double digit underdogs in New Orleans next week and teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. There’s just too much to ignore though.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

Ordinarily, the rule of thumb is to go against the Seahawks on the road. However, lately they’ve been a covering machine no matter where they are, including a 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Going back to 2007, they are 22-32 ATS on the road, but they have also never really had a problem covering as road favorites in that time frame, going 8-7 ATS. I don’t think you can go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road here, even on a short week.

Ordinarily, the home team has an advantage on Thursday Nights because travel time cuts into prep time on a short week. However, that’s not the case when the road team is favored because the road team’s talent level tends to cancel that out. Better teams are at just as much of an advantage on Thursday Nights as home teams are. On top of that, because this is a divisional matchup, the short week won’t matter as much. These two teams are familiar with each other and probably spent extra time on each other in the off-season because they knew they’d be facing them twice in critical games.

Given that, I really have no idea which side to go with in this one. Using rate of moving the chains, I’ve calculated this spread at about Seattle -5, which gives us a tiny bit of value with the underdog, but not enough where I’m going to be confident taking them. The Seahawks are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cardinals are also playing a little bit better of late thanks to the return of Daryl Washington defensively and the utilization of Andre Ellington offensively. Also, this could be a sloppy defensive battle between two good defenses on the short week, so getting 6.5 points does seem intriguing. I don’t like to go against the Seahawks, even on the road, but I’m siding with the Cardinals, even though I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

What an accomplishment for the Jacksonville Jaguars! They covered the spread last week for the first time and this season, only losing to the Broncos by a mere 16 points. In all seriousness, the Jaguars could be kind of flat after putting everything they had into that game and coming up short. Now they return home to face the Chargers. In case you didn’t already know this, the Jaguars are pretty bad. Even last week’s performance, their best of the year, would have been a 22 point game if they didn’t pick off Peyton Manning and return it for six (they failed on the 2 point conversion attempt). Justin Blackmon returning has provided a boost, but not one that losing Eugene Monroe, Luke Joeckel, and Cecil Shorts doesn’t nullify.

They are moving the ball at a 61% rate offensively, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a 17% differential that is easily the worst in the NFL. They’ve lost every game this season by 10 points or more, which is relevant because this line is only 7.5 points. The Chargers are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They beat the Colts at home last week. That doesn’t mean they are better than the Colts, just like their loss to the Raiders doesn’t mean they are worse than the Raiders, but they were able to take advantage of a superior opponent in a trap game spot and win pretty convincingly. Their defense has been terrible, allowing opponents to move the chains on 80% of opportunities, but their offense has been dynamic, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities. This line is too low.

On top of that, the trends favor the Chargers. The Jaguars have another rough game next week with the 49ers coming to town so they might not be as focused as they need to be. Since 2010, teams are 31-64 ATS before a game in which they will be double digit underdogs, which the Jaguars almost surely will be next week. On top of that, teams are 33-50 ATS as home dogs before being home dogs again. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a bye week up next, so they have no distractions. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. Vastly superior teams usually take care of business going into a bye.

This would be my Pick of the Week if it wasn’t for three things. One, I’m concerned the Chargers could fall flat off of a home upset win, like they did in Oakland. Two, this is a 1 PM East Coast Time start for a West Coast team. Three, favorites of more than a touchdown on the road have not been covering over the past 3 seasons, going 3-16 ATS in that situation. However, the Colts covered as 9 point favorites in a 37-3 win in Jacksonville earlier this season, so this is still a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -7.5

Confidence: High

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St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Panthers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-3)

The Panthers seem to make a habit out of blowing out bad teams and suffering gut wrenching losses to solid or better teams. There’s plenty of talent on this football team. They’re moving the chains at a 79% rate, while their opponents are doing so at a 72% rate, the 6th best differential in football. If they can ever figure out how to win close games, they’re going to be a dangerous team (2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since 2011). Record in games decided by a touchdown or less usually evens out over the long run, but at this point I’m skeptical if that will be the case in Carolina as long as Ron Rivera is the Head Coach.

Fortunately, that shouldn’t matter here as the Panthers have a very easy opponent in the Rams. Yes, the Rams are 3-3, but their first win came by a field goal and their 2nd win came against Jacksonville. On paper, their 3rd win looks more impressive, a 38-13 victory in Houston. However, that came was very fluky. The Rams won by 25 points despite losing the yardage battle by 204 and the first down battle by 12. This was as a result of winning the turnover battle by 4, including two return touchdowns.

That’s not a sustainable way to win football games. Since 1989, only 35 teams have won games despite losing the first down battle by 10 and the yardage battle by 200. Also, since 1989, teams are 13-23 ATS after a game in which they lost the first down battle by 10+ and still won the game by 10+. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of fluky wins like that.

On the season, the Rams are still moving the ball at a 72% rate offensively, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They are 26th in DVOA, as opposed to 8th for Carolina. They’re the type of team Carolina has had no problem blowing out in the past. There’s a reason the odds makers made this spread 6. This is the 3rd time Cam Newton has been favored by 6 or more in his career. He covered each of the first two times, winning the two games by an average of 21.5 points per game.

The situational trends also favor the Panthers. Whereas the Rams have a huge divisional matchup with the Seahawks next week, which could serve as a distraction, the Panthers go to winless Tampa Bay next week, so they should be completely focused. Non-divisional home favorites are 47-22 since 2008 before being divisional road favorites. Meanwhile, non-divisional road dogs are 49-74 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home dogs. I’m very confident we’re getting a blow out here.

Carolina Panthers 27 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

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Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 6-0

I can’t blame the Broncos for not getting up for the Jaguars before a big game with the Colts on deck. Even still, they won by double digits. What’s been especially impressive about the Broncos’ start is how they’ve done this without winning the turnover battle, as their turnover margin is zero on the season. This is in spite of the fact that Manning has been picked off just twice this season. They are -7 in fumbles, as the result of a 33.3% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue.

Week 6 Studs

LT Chris Clark

DT Malik Jackson

Week 6 Duds

None

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Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

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Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 5-1

The Seahawks played one of the weirder games this week so I don’t have much to say. They didn’t blow out the Titans like they normally do to teams at home, but the Titans are a solid team with a strong defense and they would have still covered a 13 point spread if it wasn’t for a special teams return touchdown by the Titans, who didn’t get in the end zone offensively all game.

Week 6 Studs

QB Russell Wilson

RB Marshawn Lynch

DT Brandon Mebane

DT Clinton McDonald

Week 6 Duds

None

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