Year: 2013

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Saints lost last week in St. Louis in upset blowout fashion. However, they are in a good spot here in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. This isn’t a new thing. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size.

Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game. Losing to the Rams last week might have actually helped them this week for that reason. Another reason why losing to the Rams last week might help them this week is how good the Saints have been off of a loss over the past 5 or so seasons. Since 2008, they are 17-3 ATS off of a loss when they have both Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees playing.

However, there’s one really good reason not to be confident in the Saints this week. They lost to the Rams! In blowout fashion! I know that’s contradictory to the first 3 paragraphs, but it’s not like last week’s loss in St. Louis was some huge fluke that should just be ignored. It’s part of a long trend of disappointment for the Saints on the road. So far this season, they’ve lost in New England, New York to the Jets, and St. Louis, gotten blown out in Seattle, and almost lost in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, both of which were against the spread losses as road favorites.

I have a 13-1 ATS record picking Saints games this season and I would be 13-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated. That’s their only road cover of the season as they are 1-6 ATS.

This isn’t just a 2013 problem for the Saints. Since 2008, they are 30-9 ATS (35-6 straight up) at home when Drew Brees is under center and Sean Payton is on the sideline. That’s as opposed to 17-24 ATS (24-19 straight up) on the road. How are they suddenly supposed to beat a very good Carolina team on the road when they’ve struggled this much (relatively) there thus far this season and in recent seasons? I know it’s their 2nd straight road game, which is why I’m not confident in Carolina either, but so were the New England and Seattle games.

Speaking of that very good Carolina team, they rank 1st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 76.40% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 67.37% rate, a differential of 9.03%. The Saints aren’t too shabby in this area either, even after their loss to St. Louis, as they move the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 69.94% for their opponents, a differential of 7.78%. That’s 3rd in the NFL, but they still don’t do as well as Carolina and they definitely aren’t nearly as good away from the Superdome. This line suggests that these two teams are even on a neutral field. I don’t think that’s true.

On top of that, the Panthers are in a good spot as they will be road favorites of 3 or more in Atlanta next week, a situation teams are 62-40 ATS since 2012. Furthermore, teams are 113-84 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Again, I’m not that confident in the Panthers because there are things that work in New Orleans’ favor this week, but they should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)

The Bengals lost last week pretty convincingly in Pittsburgh in a surprise loss that really shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone. The Bengals just aren’t the same team on the road. They’ve already lost pretty convincingly on the road to Cleveland and Baltimore (the Bengals needed an improbable Hail Mary to even send it to overtime), but they blew out the Browns in Cincinnati, in addition to the Steelers.

On the road, they are 2-5-1 ATS on the season, 3-5 straight up, and have a -16 point differential. Compare that to at home, where they are 6-0 ATS and straight up and have a +96 point differential, good for an average margin of victory of 16.00 points per game. That includes wins over New England, Indianapolis, and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers. Only one of their home games was within a touchdown (Green Bay). The fact that we are getting Cincinnati as mere touchdown favorites over the mediocre Vikings is a gift and an overreaction to a predictable Cincinnati road loss and a Minnesota home win against the Eagles. This line was at 9.5 a week ago. That’s a huge line movement.

Minnesota’s win over the Eagles was legitimate. It wasn’t fluky or anything. However, this line movement is ridiculous. Teams tend to struggle as road underdogs off of a win as big home underdogs, going 39-55 ATS as road underdogs after a win as home underdogs of 6 or more. That was an emotional upset win for the Vikings and it created a huge overreaction line movement. On top of that, teams are 18-27 ATS off of a win as home underdogs when their opponent is coming off of a loss as road favorites. We’re getting a good amount of line value with the Bengals as a result of what happened last week.

Even if this line was at 9.5 still, we’d be getting line value with the Bengals, who are one of the game’s elite teams because of their defense. Their offense is nothing special, moving the chains at a slightly above average 72.81% rate, but their defense is one of the best in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 67.15% rate. Even last week, the Steelers needed a fluky punt return touchdown to propel them to victory. That differential of 5.66% is the 6th best in the NFL and that doesn’t even take into account how much better the Bengals are here at home.

The Vikings, meanwhile, remain a mediocre team. Their offense is fine, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate, but their opponents move the chains at a 76.06% rate against their defense, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their -4.67% differential is 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be somewhere around 13 or 13.5, before you even take into account that the Bengals win the average home game by 16 points per game. This line is way too low.

The Vikings are also in a couple of bad spots here as they have another big game against the Lions up next, which could keep them from being as focused as they need to be for this one. Teams are 53-79 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. The Vikings will almost certainly be underdogs at home for the Lions next week. They were 6.5 point underdogs for the Eagles and the week before the odds makers agreed that the Lions and Eagles were basically even, making the Lions 2 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Things have changed since, but not enough to make the Vikings home favorites for the Lions. Also if the Vikings are going to be underdogs of 3 or more next week, which is very possible, they’re in even more trouble, as teams are 37-67 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012.

There’s one reason I didn’t make this my Pick of the Week. I considered it. I really liked the Bengals and the Patriots a lot this week and almost made this my Pick of the Week and the Patriots just a high confidence pick because of Baltimore’s home dominance, but I decided against it for one reason. Matt Cassel is playing very solid football this year, since taking over as the starter, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.75 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

As a result, the Vikings have won 2 of their last 3, with those wins coming against current division leaders Philadelphia and Chicago, with the loss coming by a field goal in Baltimore, a very tough place to win. However, I don’t think this is sustainable. He’ll have to come back down to Earth eventually and what better place to do so then on the road against a very tough Bengals defense in a very tough place to not only win, but even keep it close. It’s enough to keep this from being a Pick of the Week, but I still really like the Bengals this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: High

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New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

The two spots the Tom Brady led Patriots are most dangerous in are both in play this week. The Tom Brady led Patriots dominate off of a loss and they dominate when not favored by 3 or more. In his career, Tom Brady is 29-15 ATS off of a loss. There’s a reason why the Patriots have lost back-to-back regular season games just 4 times over the past 10 years. When not favored by 3 or more (which includes games in which they are favored by 2.5 or fewer or games in which they are underdogs), the Patriots are 41-17 ATS.

Combining those two, Tom Brady is 17-2 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer off of a loss in his career. This is a huge eff you situation for Tom Brady and the Patriots. They’ve had to hear for two weeks how they are done without Rob Gronkowski and things will only get worse now that they lost last week. In reality, the Patriots were a play away from a big road win against a quality opponent and had more yards and more first downs than the Dolphins (453 to 378 and 29 to 20). They beat the Saints earlier this season without Rob Gronkowski.

I’m not saying his absence doesn’t hurt their long-term Super Bowl chances significantly, but they are still capable of great performances in the right situation. This is one of those situations. The Patriots have already won straight up against New Orleans and Denver in this situation this season, again even though they were without Rob Gronkowski in the former. Baltimore is playing better football of late, but they don’t exactly fit into that group. If the Patriots can beat the Broncos and the Saints in this situation, they can beat the Ravens.

Yes, both of those games were in Gillette and the Patriots haven’t had a lot of success on road this season, as they are here. However, it helps that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, teams that are in their 2nd straight road game (but not their 3rd straight) before another home game lose by an average of 1.44 points per game.

It seems that teams get used to being on the road in their 2nd straight road game, as long it is isn’t their 3rd straight road game and as long as they don’t have to go on the road again the following week. One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-63 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. Teams tend to cover at that rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. This isn’t a new thing. Going off of that, teams are 86-44 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, before a home game, as long as it’s not their 3rd straight road game.

This is also a very good situation for the Patriots as this is the last big game on their schedule, with only a home game against the Bills left on their schedule. The Ravens, meanwhile, still have to go to Cincinnati, a much tougher game that will have major playoff implications. Teams are 116-86 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 81-98 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs.

Combining those, teams are 86-54 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. It makes sense. The Patriots don’t have any distractions that would keep them from pulling this upset, while the Ravens also have to focus on the Bengals next week. I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook an opponent like the Patriots, but they’re definitely in the worse spot.

This is also a huge revenge game for the Patriots, who lost to the Ravens twice last season. The Patriots rarely lose back-to-back games to an opponent, but when they do, they are 9-5 ATS in the 3rd game. Along with the Denver game, this is one game the Patriots have definitely had circled all season. They’ll put forth their best effort, especially off of a loss. Again, I’m not saying the Ravens will completely overlook them, but they have other things going on that could easily lead to them not being as focused as the Patriots here.

One other thing that works against the Ravens is how close their big upset win in Detroit was last week. Teams are 24-40 ATS as home favorites since 2002 after a road win by 3 or fewer points as underdogs of 3 or more. That was such an emotional win, both in the way they won, on a last second 61-yard field goal, and the situation, as big road underdogs on Monday Night Football needing a win to stay in the playoff race. That could easily bleed into this game.

The only thing that works against the Patriots here is how good the Ravens are at home. The Ravens are 41-8 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. However, 6 of those 8 losses came to Peyton Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers (three times). I think Tom Brady and the Patriots would fit in there. That’s not enough to keep this from being my Pick of the Week.

On final note, I wouldn’t put any money on this game right away. Field goal protection with the Patriots is going to be so important. I mean it’s always important, but 19 of the Ravens’ last 33 games (including playoffs) and 9 of their 14 games this season have been decided by a field goal or less either way. If the Ravens do win, there’s a good chance it would be by a field goal. There’s a much better chance this line shifts from 2.5 to 3 than to the Patriots being favored or something, so it’s beneficial to wait a little bit, unless you start to see the line move down. The marginal benefit of this line moving up is so much more than the marginal benefit of this line moving down. Either way, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 20 Baltimore Ravens 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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2013 Week 16 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

QB Kirk Cousins (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.0%

Kirk Cousins wasn’t perfect or anything, but he put up big fantasy numbers against Atlanta’s defense in his first start, throwing for 381 yards and 3 touchdowns, to go with 2 interceptions. Atlanta’s defense didn’t represent much of a challenge, but neither do the defenses remaining on his schedule as he faces Dallas and then the New York Giants in week 16 and week 17 respectively. He’s a low end QB1 for the remainder of the season for those who need one.

WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati)

Percent owned (ESPN): 21.1%

Marvin Jones was on here earlier this season for an 8 catch for 122 yards and 4 touchdowns performance against the Jets, but he never lived up to it. However, he just played the highest percentage of snaps he’d played in a single game this season against the Steelers and he now has 8 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two weeks. He looks to be emerging as a true starting receiver in this offense and if that’s the case, he could be very valuable. He ranks a respectable 31st in the NFL in yards per route run, out of 95 eligible and he’s already scored 9 times.

WR Andre Holmes (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Andre Holmes continues to be steady for the Raiders as he now has 14 catches for 257 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games. Even with Denarius Moore back, Holmes played ahead of him and he seems to have emerged as Matt McGloin’s favorite target. There’s definitely some appeal here in deeper leagues and he should be at least owned in most leagues.

RB Jordan Todman (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.3%

In Maurice Jones-Drew’s absence, Jordan Todman carried the load and rushed for 109 yards on 25 carries with 4 catches for 44 yards. Jones-Drew could be back this week, but the Jaguars may also opt to shut him down, with the season essentially over, like they did with Cecil Shorts. Jones-Drew is probably not going to be back next season and it would be in their best interest to evaluate Todman as a potential starter in 2014 and beyond. He’s worth stashing and could be startable in some leagues if he continues to get the start.

TE Tim Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.7%

He continues to be inconsistent, but Tim Wright had a good game this week against San Francisco, catching 7 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. He now has 30 catches for 333 yards and 4 touchdowns over his past 8 games, which extrapolates to 60 catches for 666 yards and 8 touchdowns over a full season. Those are essentially low end TE1 numbers. If you’re in need of a tight end, this is the guy to target. He might let you down, but there’s a better chance he doesn’t and he’s the best available option.

RB LeGarrette Blount (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 6.4%

Blount remains unowned in most leagues. At this point, we pretty much know what we’re going to get from him. He’ll carry the ball between 8-12 times and rush for 40-50 yards, something he’s done in 4 of his last 6 games, including the last 3. If he scores a touchdown, he was a worthwhile start. If not, he’ll disappoint you. If you’re desperate in a deep league, this is your guy.

RB Edwin Baker (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.0%

Edwin Baker, not Chris Ogbonnaya, was the lead back with Willis McGahee out, rushing for 38 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries, while contributing 4 catches for 46 yards through the air. Willis McGahee could be back this week and it’s important not to get too excited about a guy with 8 career carries who was recently signed off of Houston’s practice squad, especially against a team like the Jets, who the Browns face this week and who have a very tough run defense. However, he might have earned himself more playing time so if you’re completely desperate, give him a look.

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2013 Week 15 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Week 15

Straight Up: 9-7

Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Pick of the Week: 0-0-1

High Confidence: 1-2

Medium Confidence: 1-0

Low Confidence: 5-4

No Confidence: 2-0

Upset Picks: 0-2

2013

Straight Up: 149-74-1 (.668)

Against the Spread: 131-86-7 (.604)

Pick of the Week: 8-6-1

High Confidence: 21-8

Medium Confidence: 29-19

Low Confidence: 36-22-2

No Confidence: 37-31-4

Upset Picks: 24-24

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 16

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Denver 382 63 56 26 0 21 81.20%
2 San Diego 330 36 50 17 1 31 78.71%
3 New Orleans 318 42 50 17 8 30 77.42%
4 Carolina 293 34 56 16 3 26 76.40%
5 Chicago 309 40 58 19 4 28 76.20%
6 Dallas 288 40 71 15 1 26 74.38%
7 Green Bay 300 35 57 21 4 34 74.28%
8 Detroit 312 39 59 33 9 21 74.21%
9 New England 333 38 67 19 8 35 74.20%
10 Seattle 277 38 59 17 5 31 73.77%
11 Philadelphia 306 42 75 17 6 26 73.73%
12 Atlanta 285 32 58 25 8 24 73.38%
13 Cincinnati 285 39 68 25 8 20 72.81%
14 Kansas City 283 37 78 14 6 25 72.23%
15 Arizona 294 33 70 25 3 29 72.03%
16 Indianapolis 276 33 67 14 7 33 71.86%
17 Tennessee 272 35 69 23 5 24 71.73%
18 Pittsburgh 274 31 66 20 6 29 71.60%
19 Washington 300 32 72 29 11 21 71.40%
20 Minnesota 280 37 64 26 7 30 71.40%
21 St. Louis 253 29 69 17 11 24 69.98%
22 San Francisco 247 34 70 18 3 30 69.90%
23 Miami 254 31 70 21 7 34 68.35%
24 Cleveland 267 28 77 25 13 24 67.97%
25 Houston 274 24 75 25 11 32 67.57%
26 Oakland 244 30 74 28 3 27 67.49%
27 Tampa Bay 237 25 78 18 11 26 66.33%
28 Baltimore 259 24 80 22 5 37 66.28%
29 Buffalo 264 28 86 26 7 30 66.21%
30 NY Giants 251 26 77 39 6 20 66.11%
31 Jacksonville 237 20 86 24 13 23 63.77%
32 NY Jets 233 20 80 29 6 31 63.41%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts
1 Baltimore 242 26 88 20 6 31 64.89%
2 San Francisco 240 25 77 26 12 20 66.25%
3 Kansas City 265 29 78 35 9 22 67.12%
4 Cincinnati 255 25 78 24 7 28 67.15%
5 Carolina 238 18 60 27 7 30 67.37%
6 Seattle 255 18 69 33 7 23 67.41%
7 Buffalo 278 35 81 27 5 32 68.34%
8 Detroit 256 31 72 18 3 37 68.82%
9 Houston 240 35 79 10 4 29 69.27%
10 Arizona 280 31 73 28 9 26 69.57%
11 NY Jets 256 33 72 10 9 35 69.64%
12 New Orleans 246 27 70 17 6 26 69.64%
13 Pittsburgh 262 34 69 16 8 30 70.64%
14 Miami 287 28 66 23 7 33 70.95%
15 Cleveland 286 37 81 19 4 28 70.99%
16 NY Giants 291 31 71 22 9 27 71.40%
17 New England 300 33 72 25 11 24 71.61%
18 Tampa Bay 285 32 60 29 4 29 72.21%
19 Tennessee 295 33 67 20 2 37 72.25%
20 Indianapolis 282 33 65 21 7 28 72.25%
21 Denver 308 41 74 23 10 23 72.86%
22 Oakland 278 42 70 19 4 22 73.56%
23 Philadelphia 329 34 65 26 10 28 73.78%
24 St. Louis 303 36 64 27 6 22 74.02%
25 Green Bay 292 38 60 18 7 29 74.32%
26 Atlanta 290 40 53 19 4 33 75.17%
27 Chicago 300 38 54 25 4 27 75.45%
28 Jacksonville 308 44 67 20 2 24 75.70%
29 Washington 299 47 63 21 5 21 75.88%
30 Minnesota 330 45 66 19 6 27 76.06%
31 San Diego 291 33 55 15 5 26 76.24%
32 Dallas 350 45 53 26 7 25 78.06%

 

Differential

Team
1 Carolina 9.03%
2 Denver 8.34%
3 New Orleans 7.78%
4 Seattle 6.36%
5 Cincinnati 5.66%
6 Detroit 5.38%
7 Kansas City 5.11%
8 San Francisco 3.65%
9 New England 2.59%
10 San Diego 2.47%
11 Arizona 2.45%
12 Baltimore 1.39%
13 Pittsburgh 0.95%
14 Chicago 0.75%
15 Green Bay -0.04%
16 Philadelphia -0.05%
17 Indianapolis -0.39%
18 Tennessee -0.52%
19 Houston -1.70%
20 Atlanta -1.79%
21 Buffalo -2.13%
22 Miami -2.60%
23 Cleveland -3.02%
24 Dallas -3.69%
25 St. Louis -4.04%
26 Washington -4.48%
27 Minnesota -4.67%
28 NY Giants -5.29%
29 Tampa Bay -5.88%
30 Oakland -6.08%
31 NY Jets -6.23%
32 Jacksonville -11.93%

 

Projected Week 16 Lines

CIN/MIN 13.33
CAR/NO 4.26
TEN/JAX 8.41
DEN/HOU 7.04
STL/TB 4.84
BUF/MIA 3.47
WAS/DAL 2.21
CLE/NYJ 0.21
KC/IND 8.50
SEA/ARZ 6.91
DET/NYG 13.67
BAL/NE 1.80
GB/PIT 2.00
SD/OAK 11.55
PHI/CHI 2.19
SF/ATL 8.44

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.

The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.

Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Giants, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-2) at New York Giants (5-8)

At first glance, this line is exactly where it should be. The Seahawks move the chains at a 74.30% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 5.62% that ranks 5th in the NFL. The Giants, meanwhile, move the chains at a 67.26% rate, as opposed to 71.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.44% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around 7, which is exactly where it is.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Seahawks aren’t quite the same team away from home. They aren’t a bad team away from home, but their 5th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential takes into account games in which they have an amazing home field advantage, which they don’t here.  They’ve had some impressive games on the road. They’ve won in Carolina, blew out the Falcons, and came away with an impressive double digit victory from Arizona. However, they’ve also played close games with Houston, St. Louis, and lost in Indianapolis and San Francisco.

They have just two wins on the road by more than a touchdown, which is what it would take to cover this spread. Dating back to last season, they have just three road wins by more than a touchdown in 15 tries. The Seahawks are in a good spot though with no distractions with a home game against Arizona up next. Since 1989, teams are 84-54 ATS as road favorites of 5 or more before being home favorites of 10 or more, which is why I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Rams, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)

So far this season, I’m 12-1 ATS picking Saints game and I would be 12-0-1 ATS if I had gotten New Orleans -3 against the 49ers a few weeks ago, which is where the line ended, instead of -3.5, where I got it. I’ve done that by betting them blindly at home and almost always going against them on the road. The only time I didn’t was when they were mere 1 point favorites in Chicago early this season, when the Bears were overrated.

That’s the only time they’ve covered on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU, including a loss in New York to the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle and near losses in Atlanta and Tampa Bay. That win in Chicago was their only win by more than 4 points on the road all season and it was by just 8 points. Over the past 4 seasons, they have just 6 road wins by a touchdown or more. As a result, they are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ dating back to 2010.

However, I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Rams to confidently take them here. The Rams are not very good. They are moving the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 73.44% for their opponents, a differential of -3.95% that is 25th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3rd in differential, moving the chains at a 77.18% rate, as opposed to 69.13% for their opponents, a differential of 8.05%. That suggests this line should be around 9. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the Saints’ road issues, but I have to feel a team has at least a chance to win to confident take them as underdogs of a touchdown or less and I don’t feel that way about the Rams. I’m going to take them and hope for a close game, but I’m not confident at all.

New Orleans Saints 24 St. Louis Rams 20

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the chains, the Chiefs move them at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 66.17% for their opponents, a differential of 5.19% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th in differential, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate, as opposed to 72.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.29%. Using that, this line should be around 8.5, which is appropriate for a line between a top level team and a bottom level team, instead of 5, as it currently is.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot, as road favorites off of a win as road favorites, a situation teams are 93-71 ATS in since 1989, including 72-44 ATS as road favorites of 3+ after a win of 3+ as road favorites of 3+. They have plenty of reason to give their best effort here as they’re a Denver slipup away from leading the division and getting a first round bye. The Raiders, meanwhile, could be too distracted to keep this one close, even if they were good enough to. They have to go to San Diego next week. Teams are 26-39 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Chiefs should be able to win this one by a good margin and they should be the right side, as long this line is below 6 points.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Low

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