Year: 2013

Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 3-1

I’ve had the Lions higher than the Bears all season and the Lions did a very good job of supporting me this week, not only winning, but winning when they had a very powerful situational trend working against them (divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002). They have a very good chance to be a playoff team this season.

Week 4 Studs

LE Israel Idonije

DT Ndamukong Suh

SS Louis Delmas

Week 4 Duds

TE Brandon Pettigrew

LE Willie Young

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 5 Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (-2)

Record: 2-2

The Cowboys lost in San Diego, but there’s no shame in losing to a decent San Diego team in San Diego, with a huge trend working against them (Non-divisional home dogs are 37-11 ATS since 1989 before being divisional road favorites, while, teams are 20-35 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home underdogs). They still have as many wins as the rest of the division combined and look like a heavy favorite in the worst division in football. This is a talented team that could give Denver a scare this week in Cowboys Stadium.

Week 4 Studs

LT Tyron Smith

RT Doug Free

RG Brian Waters

MLB Sean Lee

Week 4 Duds

DT Nick Hayden

CB Morris Claiborne

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (-1)

Record: 3-1

The Bears are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009. I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to move the chains 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, moving the chains about 73% of the time offensively.

Week 4 Studs

RE Julius Peppers

Week 4 Duds

QB Jay Cutler

RT Jordan Mills

C Roberto Garza

RE Shea McClellin

LOLB Lance  Briggs

SS Major Wright

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (-5)

Record: 2-2

I thought the Bengals had finally broken through and gotten their signature win, beating the Packers despite losing the turnover battle, after going 1-11 against playoff teams in 2011 and 2012. However, last week they lose convincingly to the Browns. It’s possible that the Bengals were just flat off of a huge loss and/or caught looking forward to another benchmark game against the Patriots the following week, but I’m not going to pretend to understand this team after going 0-3-1 ATS picking their games thus far this season (36-20-1 ATS on every other team’s games). We should know more about this team after a home game against the Patriots.

Week 4 Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth

RG Kevin Zeitler

DT Geno Atkins

Week 4 Duds

QB Andy Dalton

RE Michael Johnson

CB Adam Jones

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Ravens, Uncategorized

Last week: 13

Record: 2-2

The Ravens’ loss in Buffalo isn’t shocking. Since 2010, the Ravens are 25-3 at home and outscore opponents by an average of 10 points per game and 17-15 on the road, outscoring opponents by 1 points per game. The addition of Eugene Monroe at left tackle really helps this team going forward and they still have a very good chance of winning the division. Even at 2-2, they are currently tied for the division lead.

Week 4 Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz

SS James Ihedigbo

Week 4 Duds

QB Joe Flacco

C Gino Gradkowski

LOLB Courtney Upshaw

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (+4)

Record: 3-1

The Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in 2012. For the first two games of the season, it looked like the same old Colts, barely beating a bad Oakland team at home and then being unable to pull a win out of their ass at home for the Dolphins week 2. However, they’ve blown out the 49ers and the Jaguars over the past 2 weeks. You could point to the Trent Richardson trade, but he’s rushed for 95 yards on 33 carries in 2 games, so he’s not making much of an impact on the field, though maybe it was a morale boost. It’s possible that their win in San Francisco was a fluke and that blowing out the Jaguars isn’t impressive, but, at the very least, they seem much improved offensively over last season. Andrew Luck, helped by an offensive system that fits his skill set better and an improved offensive line, is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, 2nd best in the NFL. They could continue being an offensive powerhouse going forward, even if they don’t continue playing this kind of defense (70% opponent’s rate of moving the chains).

Week 4 Studs

QB Andrew Luck

WR Reggie Wayne

LT Anthony Castonzo

LE Cory Redding

CB Vontae Davis

CB Darius Butler

MLB Kavell Conner

Week 4 Duds

RG Mike McGlynn

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Texans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15

Record: 2-2

The Texans aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the past two weeks. They led a very good Seattle team 20-6 at home before failing to close it out (so much for their 7-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less meaning they “know how to win”) and against Baltimore, they were pretty even in first downs, yards, and punts. Baltimore just won by 21 because of two return touchdowns. However, they weren’t nearly as good as they looked coming into the last 2 weeks. They’ve now been outscored by 13 points over their last 17 games. This is the definition of a pedestrian team. That being said, any talk of replacing Schaub is ridiculous. Who are you realistically going to get for 2014 that’s better than him? I could see them using a day 2 pick on a quarterback to groom behind him however, as he goes into his age 33 season in 2014 and owed 29 million from 2015-2016.

Week 5 Studs

LG Wade Smith

LE JJ Watt

MLB Brian Cushing

ROLB Whitney Mercilus

Week 5 Duds

RT Derek Newton

RG Brandon Brooks

TE Garrett Graham

DT Earl Mitchell

MLB Daryl Sharpton

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 16

Record: 3-1

The Titans would be higher on this list if Jake Locker weren’t out for 4-6 weeks with a hip problem. That hurts their playoff chances. Fortunately, they have a strong supporting cast, particularly on defense, where the NFL’s worst unit in 2012, in terms of points per game allowed, is allowing just 17.3 points per game and a 69% rate of moving the chains. Hypothetically, if backup Ryan Fitzpatrick could avoid turnovers, they would still be in position to make the playoffs when Locker returns, but Fitzpatrick couldn’t be trusted to do that in Buffalo, forcing things downfield when he doesn’t have the arm strength necessary to complete those passes.

Week 4 Studs

LT Michael Roos

DT Karl Klug

CB Alterraun Verner

Week 4 Duds

RB Chris Johnson

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 17

Record: 3-1

I said last week that starting 3-0 didn’t necessarily mean you were a good team. 22 of 32 teams won 3+ games in a row at some point last season, including the Dolphins, who finished 7-9. The Dolphins certainly didn’t look for real in a blowout loss to the Saints in New Orleans. Their offensive line is a huge problem, particularly right tackle Tyson Clabo, who is either showing his age and/or does not fit the zone blocking scheme. Defensively, they haven’t even been as good as they were supposed to, allowing opponents to move the chains at a very high 79% rate. Ryan Tannehill has definitely taken a big leap forward in his 2nd year in the league and that’s why the Dolphins can compete for a playoff spot in the AFC, but any talk of them being a serious competitor to a vulnerable Patriots team in the AFC East was premature.

Week 4 Studs

C Mike Pouncey

Week 4 Duds

WR Mike Wallace

RT Tyson Clabo

LOLB Philip Wheeler

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]