Year: 2013

2013 Week 3 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB James Starks (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

James Starks is going to get the start this week with Eddie Lacy out with a concussion. Starks exploded for 132 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries after Lacy went down early last week, along with 4 catches for 36 yards. He’s not fortunate enough to play the Redskins’ defense every week and Cincinnati this week represents a much tougher defensive test, but he’s still worth a flex play for this week if you need someone for that.

WR Eddie Royal (San Diego)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.4%

Eddie Royal somehow has 5 touchdowns in 2 games. That won’t continue, but he also has 10 catches for 114 receiving yards and will continue to be a preferred target for Philip Rivers, especially with Malcom Floyd out at least a week and possibly longer with a neck injury. Royal is worth a pickup.

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.4%

Fleener had a big game with 4 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins last week and earned the coaching staff’s praise after the game. Even better news for his fantasy value, Dwayne Allen, who was working as the starting tight end for his blocking ability, is out for the season so Fleener should be as close to an every down player as a tight end can be going forward.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.9%

Tannehill has completed 47 of 72 for 591 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception in the first two weeks of the season and could be on his way to a much improved 2nd season in the NFL. With bye weeks coming up, Tannehill is worth adding as a QB2, especially for teams whose quarterbacks have a bye week 4. Tannehill gets a New Orleans defense that is still very susceptible to giving up big fantasy days week 4.

WR Marlon Brown (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.9%

Marlon Brown continues to work as the starter in Jacoby Jones’ absence and is putting up decent numbers. He has 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.0%

Charles Clay had a big game against Indianapolis with 5 catches for 107 yards and the collegiate fullback also stole a goal line carry and scored on a one yard rush. He won’t get to play Indianapolis’ defense every week and he probably won’t continue stealing goal line carries, but he also had 5 catches for 54 yards the week before so he could be worth a look.

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Cleveland Browns trade RB Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 1st round pick

stevenlourie Browns, Colts, Uncategorized

Trade for Browns: This is one of the most bizarre trades in NFL history. Richardson is only the second player in NFL history to be drafted in the top-3 and then play for a different team in NFL history. The other player is John Matuszak in 1974, who was traded a year after being drafted first overall because he had tried to play in the now defunct World Football League in addition to the NFL. The Browns are trading a player who was the 3rd overall pick in the draft in 2012 for a first round pick in 2014 that has a good chance to be outside of the top-10. It’s the football equivalent of buying something for a dollar and then immediately selling it for 75 cents. Richardson hasn’t broken out yet, but he’s dealt with injury and a poor supporting cast and he still has a far better chance of being a special player than anyone the Browns are going to get with the pick from the Colts.

At the same time, this trade does make some sense. The Browns are going nowhere this year and while Richardson could be a special talent, it would be at one of the league’s most replaceable positions. What the Browns desperately need is a quarterback and this trade helps them acquire a franchise quarterback in two ways. It weakens them in the short term so maybe instead of drafting 5th-8th like they do every year, they’ll get a top-2 pick. And it also gives them more ammunition to trade up if they don’t get a pick high enough to draft someone like Teddy Bridgewater. There’s also a better chance the Colts’ pick ends up in the top-10 then you think if they stop being able to pull close victories out of their ass. We’ll see how the addition of Richardson affects that.

Grade: C

Trade for Colts: For the Colts, this was pretty much a no brainer. Running back was a need as Vick Ballard is a short yardage plodder and Ahmad Bradshaw is an injury prone 3rd down specialist. They don’t have anyone anywhere near as good as what Richardson can be and they’re buying him for 75 cents on the dollar. Richardson’s traditional stats don’t look great, but he was 7th in ProFootballFocus’ elusive rating in 2012 because of all the tackles he broke and he is now 1st this season through 2 games. He also is great in pass protection and pass catching. There’s a very good chance he breaks out as a top level back in the NFL on a better offense in Indianapolis and they’ll have him under team control very cheap for the next two seasons. He has a much better chance of being a special player than anyone they could have gotten with their first round pick this year.

Grade: A

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Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Eagles, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS since 1989.

The Eagles are non-divisional home favorites here, but I don’t know if that applies for a few reasons. One, these teams are as familiar with each other as non-divisional teams can be as many of the current Eagles were on the roster last season when Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid was the Head Coach in Philadelphia. Two, I don’t know that the Chiefs are necessarily less experienced than the Eagles. Three, I don’t know if this line is where it should be with the Eagles favored by 3.5.

The Eagles were exposed last week after a big week 1 with a home loss to the Chargers. Their offense was still good, though not quite as good as the week before when they were facing a terrible Washington defense and when their offense was still a complete mystery. However, their defense was atrocious. They’ve really been atrocious all year, allowing 58 first downs and forcing just 4 punts on the season, but they were able to get by week 1 because they forced 3 turnovers, but they can’t rely on having to get a takeaway to stop a drive.

Their offensive style doesn’t help their defense because, if their offensive drive isn’t successful, it doesn’t give the defense any time to rest. Fortunately, they’ve had 48 first downs to 9 punts offensively, but if the Chiefs (32 first downs allowed, 15 punts forced) can force more punts than the Redskins or Chargers, it’s going to be even worse news for their defense, which seems to allow a score every time they’re on the field. The Chiefs aren’t an incredible offense team (36 first downs, 16 punts) by any measure, but they’re not worse than Washington or San Diego and they haven’t turned it over all season.

The real wild card for this game is how the Eagles’ offensive style will be affected by the short week. Will it be harder to execute all of their no huddle stuff with less time to prepare? Will it be even tougher to stop because the defense had less time to watch time? Will it be even more effective because the defense has had less time to recover from last week? Will the offense be equally tired? Thursday Night Games are usually ugly low scoring games, which I think favors the Chiefs, their strong defense, and their conservative/turnover-avoidant offense, but I’m not confident enough to put much on that. I’d probably avoid it all together if the line were an even field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Eagles, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Chip Kelly’s offense looked very good in its first real test against Washington, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I’ll need to see it against a better defense. Washington might have the worst secondary in the NFL. I believe the offensive line can’t continue its dominance as long as it’s healthy and that both LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson can continue to be serious weapons in Chip Kelly’s offense, but I need to see Vick make harder difficulty throws. He was throwing to open guys all night. ProFootballFocus agrees, actually grading him below average as a passer for his game. I also have a lot of concerns about this defense and their ability to stop guys even when they can’t force turnovers. It’s a good start, but it’s important to not get ahead of ourselves.

I don’t know if the Chargers are a good defense, but they’re better on that side of the ball than Washington. More importantly, they have a week of tape and a week to prepare so they won’t be caught off guard as much as the Redskins were. It’s unclear how much that will help though, especially with this game being at 1 PM ET, so I don’t really want to bet against the Eagles, but I can’t pick them here. I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a touchdown or more. They could also be caught looking forward to their game against Andy Reid and the Chiefs next Thursday, just 4 days after this one. Favorites are just 5-13 ATS the week before a Thursday Night game since the start of last season.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 San Diego Chargers 23

Pick against spread: San Diego +7

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

After forcing just 16 takeaways last season, the Cowboys forced 6 against the Giants week 1. They won’t do that every week, but it’s just another sign that takeaways are very inconsistent on a year to year basis. They’re also very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis unfortunately for the Cowboys as teams who win the turnover battle by 5 have a turnover margin of -0.4 the following week on average. Their secondary will have to play better next week, but the good news is that injury filler starters Nick Hayden and George Selvie dominated in their first career start. So much for them having no depth. Once Jay Ratliff and Anthony Spencer return, they could have a loaded front. Spencer is expected back this week, though probably in a limited fashion.

Kansas City, meanwhile, apparently really impressed the odds makers last week with their 28-2 win in Jacksonville as this line has shifted from PK to -3 in one week, despite the Cowboys’ strong showing. They certainly looked good last week and I picked them to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season. They have a lot of talent around the quarterback, especially if Dontari Poe keeps this up, and Alex Smith and Andy Reid are infinitely better than Romeo Crennel and Brady Quinn and will stabilize a turnover margin that was a league worst -24 last season. However, we’ve lost all line value with the Chiefs. I also don’t think the Chiefs are the type of team, with Alex Smith under center, capable of beating high quality teams. They have an easy schedule, but this is not one of their easy games.

The Cowboys were one of my pre-season underrated teams too, because of their overall talent level, their new defensive system, and the fact that they wouldn’t be nearly as bad in turnover margin as last season. They won’t win the turnover battle by 5 this week, but they might not need to do so to win here in Kansas City. I don’t think these two teams are equal, as this line suggests. The NFC is just so much better than the AFC. Over the past 2 seasons, the AFC is 6-17 ATS as favorites against the NFC. I’m not going to put anything on it, in case the Cowboys’ can’t fix their secondary problems, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Dallas +3

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

The Falcons lost last week in New Orleans, but now they return home where it’s always been a different story for the Falcons under Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is 33-7 at home in his career and 24-15 ATS and 21-12 ATS as home favorites. Matt Ryan is also great off a loss, going 17-4 ATS in his career off of a loss. Given that, it’s kind of absurd this line is only -6.

I agree that the Falcons won’t have nearly as good of a record as last season. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. That’ll be impossible this year playing a first place schedule in the loaded NFC.

The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back. Their week 1 performance supports that projection, but this line is still absurdly low.

The Rams might be just as overrated as the Falcons, possibly more because the odds makers seem to know that the Falcons are overrated. The Rams and Cardinals are very equal teams. The field goal game they played last week just supports that. Like the Cardinals, the Rams will probably finish with 6-7 wins. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level.

If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season. They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL.

The Rams do have talent, but they’re going to have a hard time competing in the NFC. I have a hard time seeing them going into Atlanta and being competitive, but it’s not a high confidence play because of how often the Falcons have been playing close games over the past year or so. Including playoffs, 8 of their 14 wins last season were by a touchdown or less. That scares me, even with the line only at -6. I’d be more confident at -5.5 The Falcons should be the right side though.

Atlanta Falcons 27 St. Louis Rams 19

Pick against spread: Atlanta -6

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Packers, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

I’ve flip-flopped on this one so many times because it’s tough to know what to expect from Robert Griffin. Robert Griffin threw 4 interceptions all last regular season. Now he has 4 interceptions in his last 2 games combined, including the playoff loss to Seattle. It’s worth noting that Tom Brady had one of the worst seasons of his career in the season after returning from his ACL tear and he had 4 months extra to recover and had no prior injury. He also wasn’t nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. Griffin wasn’t stepping into throws and took off running just 5 times against Philadelphia. He’ll improve as the season goes on, but it’s very possible we don’t see 2012 RG3 until 2014.

On the other hand, he did look better later in the game as he seemed to grow more comfortable with his legs and in the pocket. It’s understandable he would struggle in his first game back considering he didn’t play at all in the pre-season. Perhaps he can be noticeably better this week. On the other hand, the Packers’ defense is much more talented than the Eagles’ defense, especially if Morgan Burnett returns (he’s listed as questionable and will probably be a game-time decision).

At the same time, the Packers’ defense just does not seem to be able to stop good dual threat quarterbacks. Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers is 63 years old and one of the oldest coaches in the NFL. He just does not seem to be able to adapt to this new offensive fad. After watching Colin Kaepernick beat the Packers’ twice in two different ways, I would not be comfortable taking them to cover a large spread against Robert Griffin. At the same time though, Griffin only took off 5 times last week. He’s not the same runner he was last season. But, at the same time, even if he isn’t, it could still be an asset if the Packers try to play the Redskins like they played the 49ers last week regardless, which would make it much easier for Griffin to complete passes downfield.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the Packers to make a statement bounce back game. I really believe this is just not the Redskins’ year. They have massive holes on defense that were masked up last season by an incredible offense, as a result of Robert Griffin throwing an interception on just 1.0% of his passes, the team recovering about 67% of fumbles that hit the ground, and Griffin being a threat to run, which, in turn, made life much easier for Alfred Morris. Morris rushed for just 45 yards on 12 carries in the opener. The Packers, meanwhile, are 13-4 ATS since 2009 off a loss. They should cover, but I’m not confident.

Green Bay Packers 34 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Lions won just 4 games last year despite outgaining opponents by the 2nd most yardage in the NFL, by over 1000 yards. This is largely because they surrendered a ridiculous 70 points on return touchdowns, without scoring once in that fashion. If you take that out of the equation, the Lions would have outscored their opponents on the season (they also were terrible in close games, something that should turn around in 2013). That alone should get them to 8 wins.

That return touchdown margin should even out for 2 reasons. The first is that their special teams, which were responsible for 4 of those return touchdowns allowed, should improve. That type of thing is inconsistent on a year to year basis largely because special teams personnel is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. The Lions have changed their punter, kicker, and both of their return men. The rest of their special teams personnel should look largely different as well. I’m not worried about their special teams being as bad as they were last season and that won’t just help eliminate that 10 touchdown gap, but it’ll help give them better field position.

The second reason is that I think they’re unlikely to allow 6 return touchdowns on 33 turnovers again, a ridiculous 18.2% rate. Ordinarily, teams who turn the ball over 33 times allow an average of 2 return touchdowns off of them over the course of the season. They’re probably score at least once or twice on return touchdowns this season, something they didn’t do last season. Add in the fact that the Lions suffered the 9th most injuries in the NFL last season and recovered the 2nd lowest percentage of fumbles recovered on the ground and this is a team that will be much closer to the 10 wins they had in 2011 than the 4 wins they had in 2012.

They certainly looked the part week 1 against the Vikings, but now they are road favorites in Arizona, who I think is an underrated team. They’re an equal caliber team to St. Louis, who they played tight in a field goal loss last week. Carson Palmer is infinitely better than the John Skelton/Ryan Lindley/Brian Hoyer combination that played the last 10 games of last season, going 1-9 and throwing 18 interceptions to 3 touchdowns in the process. He has 3 talented receivers to throw to in Larry Fitzgerald, Michel Floyd, and Andre Roberts and Head Coach Bruce Arians’ system fits their personnel perfectly. Their defense remains a solid unit. They won’t be a pushover for the Lions. However, the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -1.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

The Saints’ won their first game of the season with Sean Payton returning and now have won 10 straight home games with Payton as Head Coach, which includes the entirety of the 2011 season. It was an impressive win over a solid Atlanta team, but they are definitely helped by their home field advantage. Their real tests this season are going to come on the road, especially outside. Since 2008, Drew Brees has completed 68.2% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 135 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions inside, while completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.5 YPA, 57 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions outside. That’s a difference of about 11 points of QB rating.

This week they go to Tampa Bay, who actually beat them in Tampa Bay in 2011, when the Saints went 13-3 and the Buccaneers went 4-12. Now, the Saints are probably not as good as a 13-win team and the Buccaneers aren’t as bad as a 4-win team. They can’t be overlooked for that reason.The Buccaneers have a ton of non-quarterback talent, even without Carl Nicks, who might suit up this week after returning to practice and declaring himself MRSA free, but probably not for conditioning reasons. Between Darrelle Revis, Dashon Goldson, Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Vincent Jackson, they still have 6 of my top-200 players in the NFL on the field this week and solid starters all over the place after them.

The problem is the quarterback Josh Freeman. It’s becoming more and more evident that Josh Freeman will not last the season. First the Buccaneers drafted Mike Glennon in the 3rd round and then refused to call Freeman the long-term starter. Then they voted him out as team captain, which almost never happens. Now there are reports that he’s overslept and missed meetings and missed the team pictures and other reports that there is something really wrong with him off the field.

Freeman certainly didn’t do anything to help his cause week 1, completing 15 of 31 for 210 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’ll probably have a better game this week against the Saints as the Saints’ defense, even at its best, is not as good as the Jets’ defense, and he’s been incredibly streaky in his career and shown he’s capable of great games, which scares me if I were going against him, especially with the Saints playing on the road, outside. However, I can’t wager anything significant on Freeman at this point.

New Orleans Saints 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: None

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