Year: 2013

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

The Ravens lost last week 49-27 in Denver, a final score that could have had an even bigger margin, but it’s important to remember it’s just one game. Peyton Manning had the game of his (and a lot of other people’s) life. I still think this is the best team in the AFC North and that they’ll make the playoffs in the weak AFC. I trust what Ozzie Newsome did this off-season.

Plus remember, they were up 17-14 in the 3rd quarter. Losing right tackle Michael Oher mid-game certainly didn’t help things as 5th round rookie replacement Ricky Wagner was rag-dolled by the previously washed up Shaun Phillips, who couldn’t do anything against Oher. Oher is back in the lineup, which is good news.

The other good news is that the Ravens are back home here this week. They’re a much better home team than road team, going 29-5, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game, at home since 2009, as opposed to 21-20, outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game, on the road. It’ll be an extra boost that this is the Ravens’ first home game since their Super Bowl, so they’ll have a big ceremony before the game.

Ordinarily, defending Super Bowl champs do really well Week 1, winning 12 straight before the Giants lost last season and going 31-14-1 all-time before this season. The Ravens didn’t win last week obviously, but the fact that they had to open on the road probably had something to do with that. I thought the disrespect of opening on the road would counteract that last week when I picked the Ravens, but apparently not. However, they should have the kind of energy we’re used to from a week 1 defending champ this week in their home opener. Also it’s worth noting that John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS after a 10+ point loss. This feels like a blowout.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence Level: Low

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Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

The Panthers were my biggest sleeper coming into the season. In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit. Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively

I’m certainly not giving up on the Panthers after they played tough a Seahawks team that could easily win the Super Bowl. Their defense looked as dominant as I expected, particularly the front 7, even further fortified by the addition of Star Lotulelei. However, their offense didn’t look good, even against a tough Seattle defense. The Panthers admitted their game plan was too conservative and it really was as they frequently eschewed 4th and 1 chances and just 6 of Newton’s 23 attempts went 10+ yards downfield. That’s not even close to how you best utilize Cam Newton.

I’ll give them another chance and I like how the coaching staff admitted their mistake, but if they don’t live up to their talent, it’ll be because of the Ron Rivera/Mike Shula combination.That being said, I’m fairly confident that they’ll be able to beat the Bills by 3 or more. On top of everything I just said, the NFC is just so much better than the AFC this year so I’m frequently going to take the NFC team when there’s a non-conference matchup.

Carolina Panthers 27 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -3

Confidence Level: Medium

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Denver Broncos at New York Giants: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Giants, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

This line was at Denver -3 before week 1, but has moved to Denver -5 since, which doesn’t sound that significant, but it skipped over two key numbers in 3 and 4. Over 21% of NFL games are decided by either 3 or 4 points. I think that’s an overreaction. Peyton Manning obviously had the game of his life last week, throwing 7 touchdowns, but that’s all it was: the game of his life. Just like when Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards week 1 a few seasons ago, it didn’t mean he suddenly became an even better quarterback. The Broncos are still without Von Miller and Champ Bailey defensively so that side of the ball is still an issue.

The Giants, meanwhile, turned the ball over 6 times last week, but they lost by just 5. Obviously, turning the ball over 6 times is not what you want to do, but the Giants very impressively kept it within 5 despite that. Since 1989, teams are 6-142 and lose by an average of 17.6 points per game when losing the turnover battle by 5. The Giants had a chance to win late and still kept it within a touchdown. The good news for the Giants: since 1989, teams that lose the turnover battle by 5, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 in the following game.

The bad news is that Eli is going to have a much harder time throwing 450 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Broncos this week, even if the Broncos’ defense is banged up, because of simple regression to the mean, just like in Peyton Manning’s case, but it’s safe to say the Giants won lose the turnover battle by 5 again, so they’ll have a very good chance to at least keep this one close. As long as the line is higher than 4, I think the Giants are the right side. They’re a very good team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-20 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. They are 18-8 ATS as dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Denver Broncos 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5

Confidence Level: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)

The Vikings were one of the teams I predicted a big win change for. Part of the reason for this is the Vikings went from 3 wins to 10 last season. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 7 win increase is, on average, followed by a 3.5 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level.

However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. I’m not going to get into all the details again, but they were unsustainably good in close games (5-1), had unsustainably few injuries (2nd fewest in the NFL), and got an unsustainably good performance from Adrian Peterson. This season, they’re without top cornerback Antoine Winfield and they’re also without fullback Jerome Felton for the first 3 games. He was as valuable as a fullback could be last season and a big part of the reason why Peterson had such a big season.

Christian Ponder averaged just 6.1 yards per carry last season. How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. Ponder was even worse without Percy Harvin, completing just 5.4 yards per attempt without him. Harvin is gone and replacements Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are washed up/injury prone and incredibly raw respectively.

The Vikings lost by 10 in the opener, but it was even worse than that. Detroit had 28 first downs and 469 total yards to 16 first downs and 330 total yards for Minnesota. Exclude Adrian Peterson’s 78-yard touchdown on his first carry and it would have been a 34-17 game and Peterson would have just managed 15 yards on 17 carries. They simply can’t rely on him to do what he did last year again. 93 rushing yards total isn’t bad, but he surpassed that 10 times last season. Ponder again struggled, completing 18 of 28 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.

This week, the Vikings go to Chicago and will play outside, where Christian Ponder especially struggles. In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for 5.7 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions outside, where his lack of arm strength is magnified. He’s been even worse in the Windy City in 2 starts, completing 33 of 60 (55.0%) for 258 yards (4.3 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, both blowout losses. I don’t feel like this line fully takes into account how bad the Vikings are going to be this season. It should probably be at -10 considering Ponder’s issues outside, so I like the Bears moderately as only 5.5 point favorites.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 12

Pick against spread: Chicago -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers, Uncategorized

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Last week, he lost in Chicago, a team that may or may not be a playoff team, but they’re certainly the type of team he normally loses to. Andy Dalton played better in a near win, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions. This should continue to be something that works against the Bengals going forward. Its true Dalton has the best supporting cast of his career and one of the strongest supporting casts in the NFL, but he’s without his left tackle Andrew Whitworth right now and that’s a huge blow. He’s not expected to play this week.

It’s tough to know which category the Steelers will fall into this season, though they certainly looked like a non-playoff team in their opening game loss to the Titans by a score of 16-9. That final score doesn’t even fully illustrate how poorly they played offensively, as 2 of those points were on a safety, while their touchdown drive started with less than 4 minutes left in the game with the score pretty much out of reach.

However, they played well defensively, allowing just 16 points. I had the Steelers making the playoffs on the strength of their defense, which would be helped by the return of Troy Polamalu and, to a lesser extent, Ike Taylor from injury. They won’t make the playoffs if their offense doesn’t play better, but I don’t think it was as bad as it looked last week.

They lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey to a torn ACL early in the game. Pouncey is obviously out for the season, but at least the Steelers have a week to install a new center. It’s very tough to lose your center mid-game, especially a talented one like Pouncey, but you can survive without your center going forward, especially since the Steelers sign Fernando Velasco this week. Velasco was by far the best free agent center available, after being a final cut of the Titans, probably the most surprising final cut considering he was very solid as a starter in 2013. Credit the Steelers for picking him up. I don’t expect Ben Roethlisberger to be pressured on 40% of his drop backs again this week.

It’s also very possible that the Titans’ defense is better than we gave it credit for. They were dead last in the NFL in opponent’s scoring in 2012, but they ranked 8th in 2011 with largely the same personnel. It’s very possible they finish this season as a top-15 defense and that’s a conservative estimation. If that’s the case, the Steelers’ offensive performance doesn’t look so bad. At the same time, it’s possible that age (31) and all of his injuries have caught up to Ben Roethlisberger and/or that Roethlisberger is really being held back by Todd Haley’s system. Time will tell, but it’s definitely not time to rule out the Steelers as a playoff team.

If this line were -3, I wouldn’t take the Steelers solely off of Dalton’s past lack of success against playoff caliber opponents, but since we’re getting a full touchdown with the Steelers, I’m fairly confident that the Steelers are the right side here. Dalton is just 1-3 against the Steelers and Ravens in his career, with that one win coming by just a field goal against the Steelers last season. I think we’re seeing a field goal game either way with the Steelers playing a “don’t forget about us” game, regardless of outcome.

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +7

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

Usually there are not a lot of changes in my Power Rankings from pre-week 1 to pre-week 2. I don’t like changing projections based on one week. The biggest move, by far, this week were the Tennessee Titans. In 2011, the Titans were 8th in the NFL in opponent’s scoring. In 2012, they were 32nd and I couldn’t exactly figure out why. They were one of the true wild cards of this season for me for that reason. I projected them closer to 2012 than 2011 defensively, but they certainly looked closer to 2011 than 2012 in Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to one late touchdown all game.

If they can continue that, they’re going to be tough this season and they certainly have the talent to. They have a deep defensive line led by Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan, who had great seasons last year. The former was phenomenal against Pittburgh and could be even better this year, in just his 3rd year in the league. Jason McCourty is a talented cornerback, while guys like Alterraun Verner, Akeem Ayers, Bernard Pollard, and Zach Brown are capable starters. The only hole in their back 7 is middle linebacker and possibly Michael Griffin’s spot at safety, depending on whether or not he can bounce back from the worst season of his career. So far, so good for him. The offense will hold them back and I don’t believe in Jake Locker, but they have a strong offensive line, a talented running back, and they can win games like they did last week if the defense continues this level of play.

Given that, I think this line is way too high at 9.5. Besides, the Texans have had a lot of trouble blowing out inferior opponents recently. Last week’s near loss to the Chargers stands out, but last season, they also had close calls with the NY Jets, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Detroit, with 3 of 4 being touchdown games and the Buffalo game being a lot closer than the final score. Because of their 5-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, their weak schedule, and their improbable 64.3% fumble recovery rate, the Texans actually finished last season as DVOA’s 11th ranked team, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily).

This is also a good spot for the Titans as they have nothing on the horizon to distract them. Houston won this division last year and is one of the most important games on their schedule, while next week’s game against San Diego looks relatively meaningless. This is opposed to Houston, who has to go to Baltimore next week. Since 2002, divisional underdogs of 7+ are 43-23 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. That just sums up the schedule related dynamic the Titans are in this week and it’s a good sign. I like the Titans’ chances to at least keep this one close.

Houston Texans 17 Tennessee Titans 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee +9.5

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (1-0)

Last season, no team’s record was less indicative of their talent level than the Colts’ 11-5 record. For one, they had a ridiculous record in games decided by a touchdown or less, going 9-1 in those types of games. In fact, they had just 2 wins by a touchdown or more, and one came against the 2-win Jaguars. Meanwhile, 3 of their 5 losses came by more than 20 points and only one of those teams made the playoffs. They lost 35-9 to the Jets! Overall, they were -30 on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.2 wins. They made the playoffs because they were ridiculously good at pulling out close wins. That type of stuff evens out in the long run.

All of those close wins would be more impressive if they weren’t against teams like Cleveland, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Buffalo. They had an incredibly easy schedule, playing just 6 games against teams that went 8-8 or better. While they went 3-3 in those 6 games, the wins were by 3, 3, and 12, while the losses were by 20, 35, and 12. Their season essentially consisted of them barely beating bad teams and getting blown out by good teams.

They had just 1 win by more than a field goal against a team better than 6-10 and it was a week 17 game against the Texans. Once they got to the playoffs, they were just overmatched by the Baltimore Ravens, who beat them 24-9.When you combine their ridiculous record in close games and their weak schedule, the advanced metrics did not like them. They ranked 25th in DVOA and had the lowest DVOA by an 11-win team in DVOA’s 22 year history, dating back to 1991.

I thought the Colts would be improved over last season (in talent, not record). They spent a lot of money in free agency and while they didn’t get great value, it would be hard to argue they got worse this off-season. On top of that, they have Andrew Luck going into his 2nd year in the NFL in a system under Pep Hamilton that fits him a lot better than Bruce Arians’ downfield throw offense.

However, barely beating the Raiders, after winning 7 games by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams last season, doesn’t inspire any confidence. Andrew Luck looked good, completing 18 of 23 for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns, while rushing for another 39 and a score on 6 carries, and he could be on his way to a much improved 2nd season in the league, though it’s tough to tell against a defense like Oakland. However, both their defense and their offensive line looked just as bad as it was last season, despite all the money they spent.

Their opponent this week, the Dolphins, isn’t the type of pushover they are used to facing and barely beating. They’re not a great team by any stretch of the imagination and I don’t have them in the playoffs, but they are probably going to finish with 7-9 wins and I think they’re a better team than the Colts. This line suggests these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is the case. The public is also putting everything on the Colts, just like they did last week, because they seem to think that the Colts can rely on Andrew Luck pulling a win out of his ass every week. That’s not sustainable. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Colts lost a close one here, rather than winning a close one, and I’m fairly confident in Miami +3 this week.

Miami Dolphins 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

I feel like I talk about the Seahawks’ home/road disparity every week. Going back to 2007, they are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.42 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game. They are 34-15 ATS at home in that span. Last week, they had a very impressive win in Carolina. It might not seem like a 5 point win over the Panthers is that impressive, but if the Panthers are as good as I think they are, it is, especially in Carolina at 1 PM ET.

It’s very possible they’ve carried over their strong finish to last season, in which they were better both home and away, finishing 7-1 in the regular season, including road wins in Chicago and a road blowout win in Buffalo. If that’s true, they’re going to be near impossible to beat at home, even for San Francisco. Last year at home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9), beating 4 eventual playoff teams. During their 7-1 stretch last season, they had wins of 28-7, 58-0, 50-17, and 42-13 at home, the latter of which was actually against San Francisco.

The big reason for their improvement in their past 11 games, including last year’s playoffs, has been the play of Russell Wilson, who shook off a slow start to his rookie season and now is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. In his last 11 games, including playoffs, he’s completed 187 of 278 (67.3%) for 2544 yards (9.2 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Because of the Seahawks’ home dominance, this line should be at least -6, which would suggest that these two teams are even (which is being conservative if Seattle is really as good as they’ve looked in their last 11 games), but that Seattle has an absurd home field advantage that’s worth at least 6 points, which historical and recent data suggests is the case. Instead, the line is at -2.5. I’m not betting against Seattle at home, especially during a week in which they are going to attempt to set the World Record for loudest stadium. This is actually my Pick of the Week.

Seattle Seahawks 27 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against spread: Seattle -2.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-1)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

This is a situation where I think we can safely say that a team is going to go 6-10 or worse with the Raiders favored by 6 points here at home against the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders kept it close with the Colts last week, hanging within 4 points on the road of a team that went 11-5 last year. However, that’s a little misleading. The Colts won 7 games by 7 points or fewer against 7 win or worse teams last season. They’re not as good as their record suggests. That included the 2-14 2012 Chiefs and they also lost to the 2-14 2012 Jaguars. The Raiders’ near win in Indianapolis is not a sign that they won’t be as bad as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

The Jaguars aren’t good either. In fact, these are probably the two worst teams in football and by a wide margin, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be favored by 6+ against anyone. If you played this game under perfectly normal circumstances 100 times, the Raiders would probably win on average by about 3 points and this line should be -3 (which would suggest that these teams are equal and that Oakland is at home). However, these aren’t perfectly normal circumstances. The Raiders are also in a bad spot as favorites of 3 or more are 19-40 ATS since 1989 after being dogs of 7+ and before being dogs of 7+. Not only do the Raiders not deserve to be big favorites here, they also could view this as a breather week, especially after last week and especially with a trip to Denver on the horizon next week.

The Jaguars also are upgrading their quarterback situation this week, though not by their decision as Blaine Gabbert is out with injury. Gabbert was miserable last week in a 28-2 home loss, completing just 16 of 35 for 121 yards and 2 interceptions without a score, but even worse is that just 22 of his yards came through the air. The rest were after the catch. Chad Henne isn’t great either, but he was a noticeable upgrade last season, completing 53.9% of his passes for an average of 6.8 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while Gabbert completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

Henne is at least capable of getting the ball to #1 receiver Cecil Shorts, who managed just 4 catches for 30 yards last week because of Blaine Gabbert under center and Brandon Flowers draped all over him. He doesn’t have either of these things this week as the Raiders’ secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Henne is under center. In 6 starts in which Cecil Shorts and Chad Henne started together last season, Shorts caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Finally, the Jaguars are in a good spot coming off such a poor performance last week. Teams are 39-25 ATS since 1989 after games in which they either didn’t score or only scored on a safety like the Jaguars did last week. Teams tend to be undervalued and overlooked in this situation. The Jaguars are certainly undervalued as 6 point underdogs against a horrible Oakland team. I’m pretty confident in the Jaguars covering this week.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6

Confidence: High

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New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge.

Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS , including 12-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more. This is a non-divisional game here so it doesn’t meet the qualifications, but we can still apply the logic. I would much rather take Tom Brady/Bill Belichick at home on a short week than Geno Smith/Rex Ryan on the road on a short week, especially considering well the Patriots do against rookie quarterbacks (14-4).

I also think this line is an overreaction to last week. The Patriots are 11.5 point favorites here at home, which is essentially what they were last week in Buffalo. I don’t think the Jets are significantly better than the Bills so this is what I call an overreaction line. Of course, the Patriots didn’t cover last week in Buffalo, but that’s where the overreaction comes from.

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward. I care more about the Patriots’ 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. Besides, there’s no shame in failing to cover as double digit road favorites. Going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-9 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-16 ATS. It’ll be a different story at home.

I also expect the Patriots to have a chip on their shoulder in this game after what happened last week. Good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS, including 18-5 ATS off a win. If the Patriots weren’t missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola, this would be a stronger confidence pick, but we lost some line value because the line didn’t really move when those two were ruled out.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -11.5

Confidence: Low

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