Year: 2013

Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

I thought the Browns would be competitive with the Dolphins on the strength of their front 7 and their offensive line, but Brandon Weeden’s poor performance made that impossible, as he completed 26 of 53 for 289 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Their secondary also did not look good. Joe Haden was great as always, shutting down Mike Wallace, but Haden’s value is minimized because opponents can just throw away from him and pick on other defensive backs with ease. Brian Hartline torched them for 114 yards and a touchdown on 9 catches.

Week 1 Studs

LT Joe Thomas

RE Desmond Bryant

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

Week 1 Duds

QB Brandon Weeden

RB Chris Ogbonnaya

RT Mitchell Schwartz

LG John Greco

RG Oneil Cousins

WR Greg Little

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

The Jaguars were essentially shut out in their opener, only scoring on a safety. Kansas City is a tough defense, but the fact is that Blaine Gabbert remains one of, if not the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He completed just 16 of 35 for 121 yards and 2 interceptions without a score, but even worse is that just 22 of his yards came through the air. The rest were after the catch. Gabbert is out with an injury and will be replaced with the slightly superior Chad Henne this week as the Jaguars head to Oakland for what will be one of their best chances to win a game and one of the least interesting games of the season. The Jaguars started Gabbert because they wanted to evaluate him further, but his injury isn’t allowing them to do that, though they might have seen enough after week 1.

Week 1 Studs

None

Week 1 Duds

QB Blaine Gabbert

DT Roy Miller

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

The Raiders kept it close with the Colts and could have won. However, the Colts had 7 wins by 7 or less against 7 win or worse teams last season, so that’s not as impressive as it seems. The Colts just aren’t as good as they seem. Even the 2-14 Chiefs played them within a touchdown last season. The Raiders’ week 1 performance doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t be the worst team in the NFL, as so many predicted. Terrelle Pryor was a weapon on the ground, with 112 rushing yards against a Colts defense that seemed unprepared for a running quarterback, but he didn’t move the ball through the air well, even against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

Week 1 Studs

RT Tony Pashos

DE LaMarr Houston

DT Vance Walker

Week 1 Duds

LT Khalif Barnes

LG Lucas Nix

DT Pat Sims

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2013 Week 2 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football, 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.2%

Julian Edelman caught 7 passes for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Patriots’ opener. Someone needs to catch passes for Tom Brady and he seems more comfortable throwing to Edelman than any of the rookies. Edelman is worth picking up going forward solely because he’s a starting wide receiver in New England, but he has a lot of upside if Brady continues to look his way.

TE Julius Thomas (Denver)

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.4%

Thomas caught 5 passes for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Broncos’ opener. He’ll probably see inconsistent week to week production behind Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and maybe Eric Decker for targets and Peyton Manning won’t usually play as well as he did against Baltimore, so I’m not as high on Thomas as most, but he’s worth a pickup.

WR Leonard Hankerson (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Leonard Hankerson was Robert Griffin’s favorite target in the opener, especially around the end zone, as he scored twice to go with just 6 catches for 80 yards. He’s a talented 2011 3rd round pick who has flashed at times and he could be putting it all together in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers.

QB Terrelle Pryor (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.2%

Pryor isn’t a very good real quarterback, but he’s an intriguing fantasy quarterback because of his rushing ability. Pryor 112 yards rushing are still 2nd in the NFL through 1 week and he also added 217 yards through the air, though with just 1 score and 2 picks. Few QB2s have more upside so he’s worth a bench stash.

TE Kellen Winslow (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.6%

Someone has to catch passes for the Jets and Geno Smith seemed very comfortable throwing to his tight end Kellen Winslow, who caught 7 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Winslow is a proven veteran. He looked done last year, but he’s only 30. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

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Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

The Dolphins were hailed by the media as the winners of the off-season, after all of the millions they spent, but like previous “winners” of the off-season, they should disappoint. The Buccaneers were the “winner” of last off-season, after shelling out big money for Carl Nicks, Vincent Jackson, and Eric Wright, but managed just 7 wins. The “Dream Team” Eagles came before them and they won just 8 games. Dan Snyder and the free spending Redskins came many a time before them, but largely produced no results.

The well run teams who sustain consistent success, the Packers, Patriots, Giants, 49ers, Ravens, Steelers, Falcons, Saints, etc. of the world, almost never make a big move on the first day of free agency. They instead focus on strong drafting, developing and re-signing their own guys, and letting the market come to them and filling holes with solid starters on cheaper deals on later days in free agency. They never make panic signings early in free agency.You can say it’s because they are already good or because they don’t have a lot of cap space, but none of those teams was built through big free agency signings. No consistently good team ever was.

I don’t know how much better of a team the Dolphins are as a result of this off-season. Mike Wallace was the big signing, signing this off-season’s biggest contract, getting 60 million over 5 years from the Dolphins. He’ll undoubtedly be an upgrade on the outside opposite Brian Hartline, but he’s overrated and not worth what he was paid. In 2010 and 2011, Wallace was one of the best receivers in the league, catching a combined 132 passes for 2450 yards and 18 touchdowns. However, Wallace held out long into Training Camp last off-season, putting himself above the team and was not the same all season. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch. They also added Dustin Keller and Brandon Gibson in the receiving corps, but the former is out for the year with a knee injury, while the latter is a pure depth caliber receiver with very limited slot experience.

On the defensive side of the ball, the two big signings they made were linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Philip Wheeler. Ellerbe displaced Karlos Dansby at middle linebacker, while Wheeler displaced Kevin Burnett on the outside. They may be upgrades over what the veterans would have been this season, but both veterans actually had great seasons last year so it’s hard to see them being better than that. On top of that, they are both much less proven and the Dolphins are essentially paying for one year wonders. Prior to last season, Ellerbe had played 917 career snaps in 3 seasons and graded out below average in all 3 seasons. Wheeler, meanwhile, had topped out at 537 snaps in a season in 3 years as a part-time base package linebacker in Indianapolis, prior to last year’s breakout year.

On top of that, they had serious losses this off-season, losing running back Reggie Bush, cornerback Sean Smith, and most importantly left tackle Jake Long. They’ll attempt to replace those 3 with in house Lamar Miller, free agent Brent Grimes, and free agent Tyson Clabo respectively. I like Miller’s chances and Grimes could be good if they stay healthy, but, as good of a player as Clabo is, his presence moves Jonathan Martin to the blindside, where he was awful last season in 5 starts there. He wasn’t good at right tackle, but he was awful on the left side. That could make it tough for the Dolphins to set up the deep strikes to Wallace they would like.

I don’t think the Dolphins and Browns have serious talent disparities or anything. The Browns have a great offensive line, a strong and deep front 7, and the potential to be a very good running team depending on how Trent Richardson plays and how healthy he stays. Brandon Weeden is awful under center and the presence of shutdown cornerback Joe Haden could be wasted by the fact that they really lack cornerback depth and have plenty of other guys who can be picked on in the secondary. That being said, I do think the Browns will win here at home, against a pick ‘em line. I can’t bring myself to put anything on it though.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Cleveland Browns 16 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland PK

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

When this line opened at -5, it was one of the few lines I really had no idea on. I was just going to take the points because I felt the Redskins were being overrated. They won’t recover a league best 67% of their fumbles again. Robert Griffin won’t have an interception rate of 1.0% again. And while their overall injury situation should be better, especially with the return of Brian Orakpo and Pierre Garcon, Robert Griffin’s injury and how it could change his game can’t be overlooked at all. They also were without a first round pick to add much needed help to their defense.

However, this line shifted to -3.5, through the key number of 4, because the Eagles’ strong pre-season and I don’t think that’s right. The Eagles will have fewer injuries this year, especially on the offensive line, where they return Jason Peterson, Todd Herremans, and Jason Kelce, to go with rookie Lane Johnson to give them essentially 4 new starters on that unit. They’ll also have a better turnover rate than their league worst -24 from a year ago, largely due to a poor fumble recovery rate.

However, their defense figures to still be a mess, even if they do get more takeaways. The foursome of new starters in their secondary isn’t nearly as big of an upgrade as they needed and one of them, safety Kenny Phillips, has already been cut with injury problems. In the front 7, they are changing to a 3-4 scheme that doesn’t fit their personnel, especially top players Brandon Graham, Trent Cole, and DeMeco Ryans. The mediocre Connor Barwin comes in and will see significant snaps at rush linebacker over the superior Cole and Graham.

I like Chip Kelly, but I don’t think he has the personnel to fit his fast paced system. Their offense doesn’t have the personnel to consistently convert 1st downs, which will lead to a lot of quick drives and a lot of field time for a gassed and already overmatched defense. Michael Vick looked great in the pre-season, but I don’t put much stock into that. He’s still 33, injury prone, and predictably declining. He’s more reliant on athleticism than any quarterback of the last decade, so it makes sense that he’d aged like a running back or wide receiver. Once the games really matter and defenses are less vanilla, he’ll struggle and probably turn the ball over a lot. They’ll put up nice fantasy numbers offensively in this scheme, but they won’t win a ton of games. I hate overreacting to the pre-season so I’m switching over to the Redskins on this one, but I’m not confident either way.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Washington Redskins 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27

Pick against spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at St. Louis Cardinals (0-0)

The line used to be -6 in favor of St. Louis, but, unfortunately, it’s dropped down to -4.5. I would have taken Arizona +6, but I’m not as confident in Arizona +4.5. That being said, I think these two teams are much more evenly matched than they’re given credit for. Everyone assumes the Rams will improve their win total this season because they have more talent, but I’m not so sure about that.

Football is a game of parity. A team sees an average change of 3 wins per season in either direction and teams that have big improvements on average regress about half of that the following season and vice versa. The Rams have been doing quite a bit of bouncing around in the past few years, going from 1 win to 7 wins to 2 wins to 7 wins and a tie. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to bounce into the playoffs at any point and if history is any indication, they are due to bounce back down, at least a little bit.

There were a couple unsustainable things that led to the Rams’ win improvement last season. They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL. They did have a really tough schedule last season, but things don’t look much easier this season.

The Rams will have to hope that all of the talent they’ve added through free agency in the past few off-seasons have paid off and that they will continue climbing the wins ladder because they are legitimately a more talented team. They’ve signed Harvey Dahl, Cortland Finnegan, Scott Wells, Kendall Langford, Jake Long, and Jared Cook to significant contracts in the last 3 off-seasons, to go with Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, Alec Ogletree, and Tavon Austin added in the first round of the last 3 drafts. Austin, Long, and Cook are the big additions of this off-season as the Rams made surrounding Sam Bradford with more talent the single primary concern of their off-season.

The Rams are undoubtedly a more talented team this season, but they would have probably seen another bounce down (at least a few games) this season if they hadn’t added the extra talent. I just have a hard time seeing them improve on last year’s record in the loaded NFC. They have talent, but they’re not a great team or anything and you look at the rest of the NFC, I don’t know if there’s a single NFC team that you can say, they’re definitely worse than the Rams.

That includes the Cardinals. Remember, they were 4-0 to start last year and Kevin Kolb, their only competent quarterback, was 4-2 with this team. Carson Palmer isn’t great or anything, but he’ll look like Joe Montana compared to the Ryan Lindley/John Skelton/Brian Hoyer combination that combined to throw 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. They only game they won involved numerous big special teams plays and return touchdowns. If you had played another 16 games after the end of last season, the Cardinals would have been lucky to win 2 of them.

New Head Coach Bruce Arians put Carson Palmer in a position to throw downfield to an underrated trio of receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Roberts. Their failure to drastically improve the offensive line, especially with 1st round pick Jonathan Cooper out for the season, as well as some losses defensively, including Daryl Washington for the first 4 games of the season with suspension, will hold them back from being as good as they looked at the start of last season, but they’ll be an improved team this year. I see a field goal game here, but I’m not confident enough to put anything on the Cardinals.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

St. Louis Rams 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +4.5

Confidence: None

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2013 NFL Awards

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized

MVP: QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

Rodgers was my highest ranked quarterback in my top-200 and in my fantasy projections and the top quarterback usually wins this award as long as his team makes the playoffs. In his last 45 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 114 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 12738 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 41 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4529 yards. He’s also rushed for 1395 yards and 18 touchdowns in 5 years. There’s some concern with his offensive line, but he was sacked 51 times last season and still produced.

Defensive Player of the Year: DE JJ Watt (Houston)

I hate picking someone to win the Defensive Player of the Year to back-to-back years since the only one who has ever done it is Lawrence Taylor, and that was in a strike shortened season. However, Watt is coming off arguably the greatest season by a defensive lineman in NFL history, given how many sacks he had from his position, the number of swats he had, and how well he played the run to boot, and he’s only 24 years old. He could be 80% of what he was last year and win the award 9 times out of 10. His strongest competition, Von Miller, has been knocked for with a 6 game suspension. Geno Atkins could give him a run if he repeats what he did last season, but I don’t think it’s any more likely that Atkins repeats what he did last year than Watt doing so. Luke Kuechly could have the numbers for this award so he’s a darkhorse.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: RB Eddie Lacy (Green Bay)

I don’t believe in any of the rookie quarterbacks. Rookie wide receivers never do anything. Tight ends and offensive linemen never win this award. That leaves running back and Lacy is in the best opportunity to produce of any of the rookie running backs. He’s the only one who is a clear lead back and he’ll have plenty of running room and scoring opportunities on Green Bay’s offense.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: DT Star Lotulelei (Carolina)

This is shaping up to be a weak class for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Linebackers win this more often than not, but the only linebacker drafted in the first round who will be a week 1 starter is Alec Ogletree, who I have consideration to. Of the top-12 picks, only 5 were defensive players. 3 are raw defensive ends, while 2 are cornerbacks, who usually take a year to adjust to the NFL. Lotulelei was 14th, taken one spot behind Sheldon Richardson, but I think Lotulelei will be the better pro. He’ll be a key cog on an upstart Carolina front 7. His strong pre-season only supports my case.

Coach of the Year: HC Andy Reid (Kansas City)

He might not deserve it, but if the Chiefs make the kind of turnaround I’m expecting from them, Reid will probably win this award. He and Alex Smith aren’t great, but they’re light years better than the Romeo Crennel/Brady Quinn combination the Chiefs had last season.

Comeback Player of the Year: CB Darrelle Revis (Tampa Bay)

I gave consideration to Lardarius Webb, another shutdown cornerback coming off a torn ACL, and he certainly had a great performance week 1 against the Broncos, but when Revis is healthy, he’s the better cornerback.

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

A few weeks ago, this line was at -7.5 in favor of New England. However, EJ Manuel got hurt and the line shot up as it looked like undrafted free agent backup Jeff Tuel (originally the 3rd stringer before Kevin Kolb’s season ending injury) would become the first undrafted free agent to start week 1 since 1967. That put the line into double digits. Manuel is going to play in this one, but the line is still in double figures as there are questions about how well the mobile Manuel can play after minor knee surgery, as well as injuries to shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore to elite safety Jairus Byrd that have sunk the Bills’ secondary from passable to laughable.

The injuries in the secondary certainly do make it a lot tougher for the Bills to stop Tom Brady. Leodis McKelvin, Ron Brooks, and Justin Rogers will be their top-3 cornerbacks, while Aaron Williams and Da’Norris Searcy will get the start at safety. However, this line is still huge and we’ve lost all line value. I originally liked the Patriots in this spot because of how well they do week 1 (never lost in the Belichick era), because of how well they do against rookie quarterbacks (13-4), and because the Patriots will have a chip on their shoulder going into this season largely overlooked as a Super Bowl contender with guys like San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver all getting much more attention from them.

That being said, I can’t take the Patriots as double digit road favorites here. There were only 3 instances of double digit road favorites last year. Two were the Broncos against the Chiefs and Raiders, while the other was the Patriots against the Jaguars. Basically, they involved the 3 teams that had the top-3 picks in the draft. I don’t think that’s quite what we’re dealing with here. On top of that, going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-8 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-15 ATS. I can’t put anything on the Patriots for that reason, especially with most of the public action on them, but I do think they’re the right side and that we’ll see a blowout.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New England Patriots 37 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The 49ers beat the Packers in Green Bay last season as underdogs in what was a statement game for a team that would go on to prove that their 2011 season was no fluke. This season, the situation is completely flipped. The 49ers are the ones favored by more than 4 points at home, while the Packers are the ones who need a statement win. They lost both games to the 49ers last year, including an embarrassing loss to the 49ers on this same field to end their season in the post-season. Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers was caught embarrassingly unprepared, not expecting the 49ers to run nearly as much pistol and read option after they went away from that late in the season to catch any potential playoff opponents off guard.

The 49ers won’t catch the Packers off guard this time. I just feel like the Packers have been stewing on that loss all off-season and will be as prepared as they can be for the 49ers’ offense. The 49ers will still put up points. They have talent. They’re not just a gimmick team. However, I do think the Packers will turn the tables on the 49ers, much like the 49ers did last season. In recent years, we’ve seen the Ravens and Cowboys come out of the gates and beat a team that was previously unbeatable for them and that had previously ended their season in the Steelers and Giants respectively.

This game actually has some parallels to that Ravens/Steelers game, as the 49ers will be coming off a Super Bowl loss. Teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not done well week 1 in recent years, going 4-15 ATS in their last 19 instances. I’m not saying this game isn’t going to be important for the 49ers too, but I think the Packers have the situational edge here, especially with the 49ers having a visit to Seattle the following week, which could be their biggest game of the season the way Seattle blew them out in the 49ers’ last visit.

I also like getting more than 3 points with Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal in his career. The Packers have lost just 6 games, including playoffs, by more than 4 points dating back to the middle of the 2009 season, a 64 game stretch. One of those losses was in overtime. If the Packers lose here, I have confidence that it’ll be a field goal game. I originally had this as a higher confidence game but the Packers will be without key nickel back Casey Hayward with injuries, while middle linebacker Brad Jones and safety Morgan Burnett will be game time decisions (though they sound like they’re expected to play).

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 24 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Green Bay +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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