Year: 2013

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

I expect the 2013 Saints and Falcons to largely resemble the 2011 versions of their teams, when the Saints won 13 games and the Falcons 10 games. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run.

While they did outscore opponents by a total of 120 points on the season (not unimpressive, though it was surpassed by San Francisco, Seattle, New England, and Denver), they actually outgained opponents by 57 yards total on the season. For example, while they ranked 5th in the NFL allowing 18.7 points per game, they were 20th in the NFL in YPA allowed, 29th in YPC allowed, and 24th in total yards allowed. On a per play basis, they were actually outgained on the season, allowing 5.9 yards per play, as opposed to just 5.8 yards per play gained.

A lot of this had to do with their superb turnover differential as they had 13 more takeaways than giveaways. That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). Just look at safety Thomas DeCoud, who led the Falcons with 6 interceptions last season. In his previous 3 seasons as a starter, he had 8 interceptions total. We’re talking about what players do on a tiny fraction of their snaps so it’s going to be inconsistent.

While I don’t expect Matt Ryan to see his interception total suddenly balloon, it’s very unlikely that the Falcons lose just 4 fumbles all season in 2012. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground next season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013, which should help neutralize that turnover advantage. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back.

The Saints, meanwhile, should be heading in the opposite direction. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 6 win decrease is, on average, followed by a 3 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level. Sean Payton returns this season to help an offense that wasn’t actually that bad last season and they have a very good chance to get back over 30+ points per game. Defensively, they can’t possibly be as bad. They upgrade from Steve Spagnuolo to Rob Ryan at defensive coordinator and switch to a defensive scheme that fits guys like Cameron Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Junior Galette, and Martez Wilson much better. Off-season additions of Keenan Lewis and Kenny Vaccaro should help their secondary.

I don’t think either of these teams will reach their 2011 win total because they’re both a little worse defensively and because the NFC, and particularly the NFC South, is so much tougher now than that. Once divisional doormats, Carolina and Tampa Bay will both be very tough wins at worst this season. However, they’ll both resemble their 2011 version much more than their 2012 version. In 2011, the Saints won both games in this matchup so that needs to be taken account, especially considering they delivered a 45-16 ass-whooping at home week 16. The Saints didn’t lose a game at home in 2011 as well, including post-season. For that reason, I like the Saints’ chances to win here, and cover as 3 point favorites. There will be a lot of points scored on each side, as neither of these teams plays good defense, and I would be shocked if either team won by 29 again, but I have some confidence in the Saints here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)

The Chiefs were no ordinary 2-14 team. They had 6 Pro-Bowlers last year. That might sound baffling, but it’s not. Only Eric Berry and maybe Tamba Hali (who had a down year) didn’t deserve it, but they could have easily been replaced by Brandon Flowers and Justin Houston. They have 8 of my top-200 players, significantly above average (Dwayne Bowe, Jamaal Charles, Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah, Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers).

Unfortunately for them, football is a team game, not a contest of who has the highest amount of good players. This team was the perfect example of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole. If you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate, you’re not going to win a lot of games. I don’t care how many talented players you have.

Because they were no ordinary 2-14 team, the Chiefs took a different approach to the off-season than most teams coming off of seasons with similar records do. Instead of rebuilding, the Chiefs acted as contenders, bringing back their top two free agents Dwayne Bowe and Branden Albert on a lucrative multi-year deal and the franchise tag respectively.

They also signed four players to multi-year deals, adding Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith to shore up holes in the secondary, Mike DeVito to shore up a hole on the defensive line, and Anthony Fasano to likely be their starting tight end. They brought in a veteran Head Coach in Andy Reid and, rather than using an early draft pick on a quarterback for the future, they sent a 2nd round pick to San Francisco for veteran Alex Smith and used the #1 overall pick on a more NFL ready player in Eric Fisher, who will plug in at right tackle immediately.

I think, overall, their moves made a lot of sense this off-season. They might have overpaid a few players, but I like the strategy and I think they’ll be a much improved team this season. Not only are they more talented, but the additions of Alex Smith and Andy Reid will fix the three things that were holding them back last season, quarterback play, turnovers, and coaching and let the rest of their talent shine.

Reid wore out his welcome in Philadelphia, but he also managed to keep his job there for 14 seasons, which is saying something. Over his time there, he made basically every quarterback he had look better than they were, allowing the Eagles to ship off Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, and, eventually, a washed up Donovan McNabb for 2nd round picks, even though none of the three ever did anything of note for their new team. He also revitalized the careers of Jeff Garcia and Michael Vick, who both came to Philadelphia as backups on cheap one year deals.

Reid should continue his fine work with new quarterback Alex Smith, a great fit for Reid’s West Coast offense. Smith was not as good as he looked in San Francisco with Jim Harbaugh. Their supporting cast made life very easy for him, especially their defense, as Smith had an excellent win-loss record despite only leading a talented offensive bunch to 23 points per game in 1 ½ years under Harbaugh.

However, I don’t think you can say he’ll immediately regress to the borderline starter he was before Harbaugh. I believe he’s legitimately an improved quarterback over the one he was 2 seasons ago. Plus, with Reid and Kansas City’s supporting cast, he’s not going into such a bad situation in Kansas City. He’ll also see a much easier schedule than he did in San Francisco. He’s physically limited and can only lead teams deep into the playoffs in absolutely perfect situations, but at the very least he’ll stabilize the turnover margin.

Speaking of that turnover margin, it was a league worst -24 last season, which was actually one of the worst in NFL history (-30 by the 1965 Steelers is the worst in NFL history). It made it very tough for them to win games and affected both sides of the ball, especially defensively, where they were not nearly as bad as the 26.6 points per game they allowed would have suggested.

Turnover margin tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). Alex Smith should cut down on their interceptions. They should recover more than the 33.3% of fumbles that hit the ground that they did last season, 3rd worst in the NFL. And their talented defense should get their hands on a few more interceptions as well. With almost the same defensive unit in 2011, they had 19 interceptions. Last year, they had 7. That’s how inconsistent this stuff can be. That will go a long ways towards letting their talent show through and improving their record.

Unfortunately, this isn’t an uncommon opinion. Most people expect them to be much improved this season. This is a pretty big line for a road team as the Chiefs are favored by 4. That being said, the Jaguars are terrible. They need to get used to losing by more than four because it’s going to happen a lot the rest of the season. They might be better than the Raiders, but only by default. I actually like what they did this off-season, hiring Gus Bradley and Dave Caldwell as Head Coach and GM respectively, purging themselves of overpaid veterans, even at the expense of their current salary cap (their 27 million in dead money on the cap is only behind Oakland), and not reaching for a quarterback in a draft that didn’t have a good one, instead taking the best available in Luke Joeckel.

That being said, it won’t help them win this season. Only Oakland has less talent as they’ll be starting 3 rookies and they filled holes on defense with mediocre veterans like Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Geno Hayes, and Alan Ball. Blaine Gabbert remains overmatched under center and will continue to prove why they never should have spent a top-10 pick on him in the first place.

They did have a ridiculous amount of injuries last season, but only Maurice Jones-Drew returning from injury has the possibility of really impacting their season. The rest of those guys are either no longer with the team or mediocre at best starters. They only have two of my top-200 players and they don’t really have many solid starters after them, especially with Marcedes Lewis and Justin Blackmon out in this one. I feel pretty confident taking the Chiefs to win by more than 4 here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 12

Pick against spread: Kansas City -4

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Jets, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Buccaneers games might be the toughest to predict in the NFL because of how inconsistent Josh Freeman is. He used to just be incredibly inconsistent on a year to year basis. Josh Freeman posted a touchdown to interception ratio of 10/18 in 2009, 25/6 in 2010, and 16/22 in 2011. They went 3-13, 10-6, and 4-12 in those 3 seasons respectively. However, last season, he was at the point where you didn’t know what you were getting from him on a weekly basis.

Last season must have felt like 4 different seasons for Buccaneers fans as it was a microcosm of Freeman’s career. They started 1-3, after losing their last 10 to finish 2011, and it looked like more of the same. However, after the bye, they ripped off wins in 5 of 6 games and looked like a potential playoff team. They lost a close one at home to Atlanta and then in Denver, but those were two of the best teams in the league so they still looked like they were in good position. That was until they lost at home to the lowly Eagles, and then got blown out by the Saints and Rams, to push their losing streak at 5. They finished out their season with an impressive win in Atlanta.

Freeman started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez. The Buccaneers have more talent around Freeman this season, even with Carl Nicks still out with injury, but Freeman makes this team very tough to predict and he should end up being the limiting factor.

They have not seemed confident in Freeman this off-season, drafting Mike Glennon in the 3rd round, symbolically putting Freeman on the hot seat, and then calling out Freeman publicly and literally putting him on the hot seat. The cherry on top is they took away his captaincy right before the season starts. That’s incredibly rare. I’ve never heard of that happening. Quarterbacks aren’t always a captain on a team, but once a player is captain, he usually stays captain as long as he’s with the team. It’s just a further sign that Freeman will probably be benched at some point this season, unless he surprises. They just seem sick of being unsure what they’ll get from him on a weekly basis, even if his career numbers and overall performance average out alright.

As for this game, I do lean towards taking Tampa Bay, just based on NFC supremacy. The NFC went 37-26 against the AFC last season, and, even though they lost the one that mattered, the Super Bowl, they were the clearly better conference. This season, the talent disparity might be even bigger. I have the Buccaneers winning just 6 games, but if they were in the AFC, they might make the playoffs, even with all of their quarterback problems.

They added Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson to their secondary this off-season and could get big seasons from youngsters Johnathan Banks and Mark Barron back there as well. They return Adrian Clayborn, Davin Joseph, and Carl Nicks from injury, though the latter is still out with a staph infection. The loss of Michael Bennett hurts them, but he was their only serious loss. Of my top-200 players, they have 7, which is above average (Revis, Goldson, Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy). They should cover this game, but I’m not confident enough to put anything on it.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 New York Jets 9

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

A lot of people are really down on the Steelers right now, but I like their chances to have a bounce back year, as teams normally do after a significant win decrease. Teams that decrease by 4 wins, on average, have a win increase of about 2 the following season. Sure, they’re getting older and they lost guys like James Harrison and Mike Wallace this off-season, but neither was what they once were last season. Harrison definitely showed his age and should be replaced easily by Jason Worilds and Jarvis Jones, while Wallace was not himself at all coming off an extended holdout. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch.

The Steelers should also have better injury luck, after having the 7th most injuries last season, according to adjusted games lost. Sure, they’re already without Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller in this one, but they’re still in better shape than they were last season. Remember, they were 6-3 last year before guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Ike Taylor got hurt. And that was with guys like David DeCastro and Troy Polamalu barely playing.

Polamalu’s return is the biggest deal. Troy Polamalu has missed 22 games over the past 4 years and in those 22 games, the Steelers have allowed 20.2 points per game. With him, however, they allow just 15.5 points per game. As good as their defense is, he might be their single most important defensive player when healthy because he can impact the game with his mere presence. He’s only going into his age 32 season, so he shouldn’t be done and luckily injuries haven’t sapped his abilities when he has been able to suit up. He’s still been very effective when on the field. It’s just a matter of staying healthy, which he will be for this game. That’s a huge deal.

Given that, I think this seven point line is too low. The Titans are not that good of a team. I think most people would agree with that, but the Steelers shouldn’t have much trouble beating. On top of that, the Steelers are a much better home team than road team over the past few seasons. Over the past two seasons, they outscore opponents by 9.5 points per game at home and 2.5 points per game on the road. I have some confidence that this will be a double digit win.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 12

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions and Vikings are among the teams I picked to have big win changes, the Lions in a positive direction and the Vikings in a negative direction. Part of this has to do with the fact that the two teams did the opposite last season, with the Lions going from 10 wins to 4 and the Vikings going from 3 wins to 10. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 6 win decrease is, on average, followed by a 3 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level.

However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Both teams have other signs of impending win changes. The Lions won just 4 games last year despite outgaining opponents by the 2nd most yardage in the NFL, by over 1000 yards. This is largely because they surrendered a ridiculous 70 points on return touchdowns, without scoring once in that fashion. If you take that out of the equation, the Lions would have outscored their opponents on the season (they also were terrible in close games, something that should turn around in 2013). That alone should get them to 8 wins.

That return touchdown margin should even out for 2 reasons. The first is that their special teams, which were responsible for 4 of those return touchdowns allowed, should improve. That type of thing is inconsistent on a year to year basis largely because special teams personnel is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. The Lions have changed their punter, kicker, and both of their return men. The rest of their special teams personnel should look largely different as well. I’m not worried about their special teams being as bad as they were last season and that won’t just help eliminate that 10 touchdown gap, but it’ll help give them better field position.

The second reason is that I think they’re unlikely to allow 6 return touchdowns on 33 turnovers again, a ridiculous 18.2% rate. Ordinarily, teams who turn the ball over 33 times allow an average of 2 return touchdowns off of them over the course of the season. They’re probably score at least once or twice on return touchdowns this season, something they didn’t do last season. Add in the fact that the Lions suffered the 9th most injuries in the NFL last season and recovered the 2nd lowest percentage of fumbles recovered on the ground and this is a team that will be much closer to the 10 wins they had in 2011 than the 4 wins they had in 2012.

Minnesota is in the opposite situation. They excelled in close games, winning 5 out of 6 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. As a result, they won 10 games despite a point differential of +31 and a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.8 wins. Record in games decided by a touchdown or less tends to be very inconsistent and almost always evens out in the long run. For instance, they were 2-9 in such games in 2011.

There’s no reason to believe they’ll be that bad again in 2013, but at the same time there’s no reason to believe they’ll be as good as they were in 2012 again either. In terms of DVOA, they ranked 14th in the NFL last season and most importantly for their chances of making the post-season again in 2013, they ranked 9th in the loaded NFC in DVOA. I think that’s a more accurate assessment of their 2012 season: that they were the 9th best team in the NFC, but snuck into the 6th seed because of some “clutch” close wins.

I have reason to believe they won’t even be the 9th best team in the NFC this season. Keep in mind, the teams ranked 15th-17th in DVOA were also NFC teams, as were the teams ranked 19th-20th. The difference between being the 9th and the 14th best team (Tampa Bay) in the NFC last year was not very significant and if a few more things don’t go quite the Vikings’ way, they could be one of the worst teams in the NFC.

One thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again is injuries. Last year, they were 2nd in the NFL in adjusted games lost, essentially losing the equivalent of over 2 important players for the entire season fewer than the average NFL team. That tends to be unsustainable so the Vikings should suffer more bad luck in terms of injury in 2013. They’re already without defensive tackle Kevin Williams for this game, as well as key fullback Jerome Felton. It also doesn’t help that they lost Antoine Winfield, who was an invaluable member of their secondary last season, to free agency (as a cap casualty) and then eventually retirement.

The other thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again this season is the MVP, Adrian Peterson. Peterson played at a non-human level in 2012, coming up 9 yards short of the single season rushing record and becoming the 2nd running back since 1982 to average 6.0 yards per carry or more and carry the ball 300 or more times. It was arguably one of the best single seasons a running back has ever had. It’s a season that no running back will probably match for a long time and unfortunately for Vikings fans, that probably includes Peterson.

No running back in NFL history has ever rushed for 2000 yards twice in a career. No running back has even rushed for 1900 yards twice in a career. Among the top-16 in single season rushing yard totals there are 15 unique names. Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and OJ Simpson have both rushed for 1800 yards more than once in their career, but only Dickerson did it in back-to-back seasons and he was 23-24 in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. Peterson is going to try to do it when he’s 27-28.

Furthermore, of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. In fact, the average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to get hurt and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Finally, only 5 players in NFL history have had 3500 rushing yards in a 2-year stretch and only 2 have had 3600.

Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards. I think there’s a decent chance that Peterson gets to 1662 rushing yards, which would give him the 2nd most rushing yards all-time in a two year span, but either way there’s a very good chance Peterson is rushing for at least 400 yards fewer this season. Plus, remember, in Peterson’s 6 year NFL career, he’s rushed for fewer than 1400 yards 4 times. Last season was the best of his career, but he didn’t suddenly become a significantly better player.

Christian Ponder largely was a game manager for the Vikings last season, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt, hitching his wagon to Peterson and having him drag him into the post-season. How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. That’s why Peterson got my support for MVP, even though it’s near impossible for a running back to truly be the most valuable player in today’s NFL. Peterson was last year. He probably won’t be this year.

However, without Peterson rushing for an absurd amount of yardage this season, the Vikings could be in a lot of trouble if Ponder doesn’t improve statistically. Ponder could be a better quarterback going into his 3rd season in the NFL, but he was a very NFL ready quarterback coming out of Florida State. He was never a quarterback who had a lot of issues with the non-physical parts of the game (touch, accuracy, decision making, reading defenses), but he’s physically limited and that’s not something that really improves as your career goes along. He’s averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt throughout his career and considering how much he struggled last season without Percy Harvin, he could be even less than that this season. Harvin went down for the year midway through the 9th game of the season and Ponder averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in games 9-16 last season. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson come in, but the former has been very injury prone of late, while the later might not even start as a rookie.

The Vikings could easily be this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer and the Lions could easily be this year’s team that does the opposite. Unfortunately, the odds makers seems to know this as well, which is why Detroit’s over/under win total is actually higher than the Vikings’ and why this line is Detroit -5. It takes away a lot of the line value here, but it also re-affirms my stances on these two teams. The odds makers usually know what they’re doing. It’s not a big play, but the Lions should win this game by at least a touchdown so I will make a play on them.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

This is the annual week 1 absurdly late game. In order to kick off the football season, ESPN crams two NFL games into Monday Night Football Week 1. The second game usually starts after 10 PM ET and features West Coast teams, which, recently, has meant East Coasters have to watch crappy teams play football until well past Midnight. Last year’s San Diego/Oakland game was one of the worst games of the season, a game in which the Raiders botched 3 separate long snaps. The year before featured a riveting Kyle Orton/Jason Campbell battle.

This year, the Chargers are featured again, but they will be facing a Texan team that comes from 2 time zones over. That matters to this analysis. The Chargers will be playing this game from 7:15 until after 10 their time, but it’ll run until past Midnight on the internal clocks of the Texans. They could have lower energy than normal late in this game for that reason and that puts them at a disadvantage.

The Texans are an overrated team, as well. The Chargers aren’t good, but, considering the circumstances, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored by more than a field goal here on the road. They were much worse last season than their 12-4 record would suggest. They had a less than stellar scoring differential, going +85 on the season, including +9 in their final 11 games, +2 if you include the playoffs. Overall, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, despite a weak schedule. They ranked 11th in the NFL in DVOA, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily). They also were very reliant on winning the turnover battle, with a +12 turnover margin, with 29 takeaways and 17 turnovers.

That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). The Texans were actually just +2 in interceptions, but were +10 in fumbles, thanks to a fluky 64.1% fumble recovery rate. It’s not hard to see how the Texans’ turnover margin will even out in 2013. If it weren’t for this unsustainable turnover margin, the Texans would have been even worse in 2012.

Of course, they were off to a great start last year, before Brian Cushing got hurt. Without him, they ranked 18th in opponents’ scoring and 13th in opponents’ yardage, after starting the season as the top yardage and scoring defense in the NFL. They were 5-0 with him, including a win in Denver. The year before they were also a “what could have been team.”

They won 10 games in 2011 despite having their starting quarterback and top receiver only play together in 4 games. Before Matt Schaub went down with injury and missed the final 6 games of the season, the Texans were 7-3, scoring 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6, which would have been 5th and 3rd respectively over the course of the season. Those numbers translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.2 wins, which would have been second in the league that season. And all of that was despite Andre Johnson playing in just 4 of those 10 games, and Arian Foster missing 3 of those games.

Even after Schaub got hurt, they finished 10-6, going 3-3 without him and a 4th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis, winning a playoff game. I could say that the Texans will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season now that Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing are all healthy at the same time (it’s happened just 6 times in the last 2 seasons, all wins), but the NFL is messy. Nothing will ever be a perfect world. I’ve given up projecting them as that top, top level team. They’ll never be completely healthy and it’s not like they’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, ranking 8th in adjusted games lost in 2012 and 11th in 2011.

They just don’t seem to be able to take hits and keep on going and it’s very possible they’re just an above average team which flashes elite ability in the perfect scenario. This game isn’t a perfect scenario either as Antonio Smith, a talented starting defensive end, is out for this game with suspension. Furthermore, Brian Cushing might not be quite his usual self to start the season. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Chargers, I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Houston Texans 17 San Diego Chargers 16

Pick against spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

I actually have the Cowboys winning this division. I think they’re the best team in the NFC East. Turnovers were an issue overall for the Cowboys in 2012 as they had a turnover differential of -13 and managed just 16 takeaways. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

They should be better in that aspect this season and for that reason a better team. They actually have a good deal of talent on both sides of the ball so as long as they don’t get in their own way turnover wise or continue struggling to produce takeaways defensively, they should be an improved team in 2013. I actually like their defensive scheme change, as it’ll get top linebackers Bruce Carter and Sean Lee into positions that better fit their skill set. However, they won’t be as good to start the season, especially week 1, with injuries. Defensive tackle Jay Ratliff is out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season, while defensive end Anthony Spencer will miss at least this game with a knee injury. If the Cowboys have one weakness, it’s lack of depth. George Selvie and Nick Hayden will take their spots. Both had strong pre-seasons, but neither have had any significant impact thus far in their career.

The Giants, meanwhile, are normally a much better team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83. There’s a good chance they’ll get off to another hot start this season, only to fall back to the pack in November and December. They’re also a better road team than home team (in terms of record) and better when they’re being overlooked and under-dogged, which they are here. They’re 16-6 ATS as road dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Raiders suck. Like they’re really, really bad. They won 4 games last year and appear a long shot to even match that total this year. For one thing, they have over 50 million in dead money on their cap. Of their 10 biggest cap numbers this season, 6 are dead money cap casualties who are on other teams, 1 is a backup quarterback, and another is a kicker. They had a first round pick this off-season, for the first time since 2010, but for various reasons had to cut 2010 middle linebacker Rolando McClain, 2009 1st round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey, and 2006 1st round pick Michael Huff this off-season, the latter of whom was actually still an asset for this team, but was a necessary cut for cap reasons.

Prior to drafting DJ Hayden 12th overall this past April, they had just two former 1st round picks on their roster, one of whom is a kicker. Hayden himself could be very behind the 8-ball as a rookie, as he wasn’t cleared for contact until late August after off-season surgery to repair scar tissue in his abdomen. Their cap situation also caused them to lose top defensive lineman Desmond Bryant, top linebacker Philip Wheeler, and leading receiver Brandon Myers this off-season.

On top of all of this, the Raiders will be without Jared Veldheer, one of their very few remaining good players, early in the season with a torn triceps. 2nd round rookie Menelik Watson, who has never played left tackle in his live, is supposed to play in his absence, but he’s dealing with a knee injury of his own. If he can’t go in this one, the Raiders would move Khalif Barnes to left tackle, which would be disastrous considering how overmatched he’s been on the easier right side over the past few seasons. Tony Pashos, a 33-year-old who didn’t play last season, would be the right tackle in that scenario.

The Raiders attempted to plug some holes with cheap signings of Vance Walker, Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett, and Charles Woodson defensively, but they’re, any way you look at it, a worse team than they were last season. They are going to be awful this season. However, the Colts had a lot of trouble beating awful teams last season. They only won 2 games all last season by more than a touchdown and that includes close calls against Tennessee, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Detroit, among others.

The good news for the Colts is the Raiders are worse than any team they played last season, including Kansas City. The Colts also should be a better team this season, though it probably won’t show in their win-loss record. Andrew Luck is going into his 2nd year in the league and should be better in Pep Hamilton’s system, which will resemble the one Luck ran at Stanford under Hamilton, rather than Bruce Arians’ system which had Luck throw 20+ yards downfield more than any quarterback in the NFL last season. He also should have a better offensive line, after being pressured more often than any quarterback in the NFL last season.

However, for all the money they spent this off-season, I don’t know that their supporting cast is that much better than it was last season, especially on defense. If this line were still -7 like it were before the pre-season, I could take the Colts, but as long as it’s -10, I can’t take the Colts, especially with all of the public action on them. They don’t have a history of blowing teams out and this could very well be week 1’s meaningless garbage touchdown for a backdoor cover that causes everyone to lose a ton of money game. That being said, I can’t put any money on the Raiders, even if they were -20. Indianapolis is also my Survivor Pick of the week. I’d be shocked if they lost this game.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Oakland Raiders 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Oakland +10

Confidence Level: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I think the Seahawks are a little overrated because of how good their home field advantage is. Fortunately, as long as they’re home, they are the toughest team in the NFL to beat, but if they have to go on the road, they’re definitely beatable. Considering their home/road disparity goes back so far, I think they’re currently an above average team that looks elite at home, but show its true colors on the road. Going back to 2007, they are 15-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.63 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game.

Last season, they went 3-5 on the road, including losses in St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit, all sub-.500 teams a year ago. In the post-season, they were down 14-0 in Washington before Robert Griffin got hurt and they lost the following week in Atlanta.  At home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9) last season, beating 4 eventual playoff teams, and on the road, they outscored opponents by just 2.3 points per game (21.1-18.8), despite playing just one playoff team in that stretch (San Francisco).

The good news for the Seahawks is they got better as last season went on, both at home and away, thanks to the improvement of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. I think that has a good chance of carrying over in 2013, at least somewhat. However, The Panthers are an underrated team that is going to be a very tough team for the Seahawks to beat in Carolina, especially on the East Coast at 1 PM ET, a situation the Seahawks haven’t won in since 1998.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit.

Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively. He and Charles Johnson give them one of the best 4-3 defensive end duos in the NFL, with Hardy moving to defensive tackle on passing downs and talented reserve end Frank Alexander coming in to allow the Panthers to play 3 defensive ends at once. This season, Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short come in as rookies with Dwan Edwards at defensive tackle and give the Panthers one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

At linebacker, they have Jon Beason back healthy with Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Their secondary is a problem, but you can mask a mediocre secondary with good front 7 play. The 49ers have been doing it for 2 seasons and the Panthers did it to end last season. For those reasons, I like their chances of carrying their strong finish into 2013. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Panthers, this is my Pick of the Week, especially since the public continue to put all their money on Seattle.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Carolina +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Top-200 NFL Players: 1-20

stevenlourie Top-200 2013, Uncategorized

1-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 101-120 121-140 141-160 161-180 181-200

With 10 days left until the regular season opener, this 10-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

1. DE JJ Watt (Houston)

At 23 years of age in his 2nd year in the league, playing with torn ligaments in his elbow, Watt had what defensive coordinator Wade Phillips called the “absolute best” season by any defensive lineman in NFL history. Phillips would know, considering he’s been in the NFL since 1976 and has coached DeMarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Clyde Simmons, who, along with Watt, have combined for 6 of the 13 highest single season sack totals in NFL history.

I haven’t seen as much football as Phillips, but I’m inclined to agree with him. While his 21 sacks don’t break the single season record, Watt had those 21 sacks despite being an interior defensive lineman, having to fight through more junk to get to the quarterback. You can’t say that about any other player who has ever had as many sacks in a season as Watt did last season. He also had an NFL record 15 batted passes and played the run incredibly well. His 57 solo tackles not only led his position and not only led all defensive linemen in 2012, but they came for an average gain of 0.16 yards by the ball carrier, best in the NFL among players at any position.

I can definitely understand why Phillips sees it as the greatest season a defensive lineman has ever had. He won the Defensive Player of the Year, winning 49 of 50 votes, and he should be the heavy early favorite to repeat in 2013, with another year of experience and a healthy elbow. He’d join Lawrence Taylor, Joe Greene, Mike Singletary, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Ray Lewis as the only players to win the award multiple times and join Taylor as the only one to win it in back-to-back seasons (he did it in a strike shortened season). At the end of the day, he could surpass Lawrence Taylor’s record 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards. Watt might not improve on 2012, but that will only be because it’s tough to improve on the best. There’s no non-quarterback I’d rather start a team with, hands down and he deserves to be tops in this list.

2. DT Geno Atkins (Cincinnati)

If it weren’t for JJ Watt, Geno Atkins would be getting a lot more attention. A 4-3 defensive tackle, Atkins was almost as good as Watt in all aspects of the game last year, recording 16 sacks in the process, an incredible number for an interior defensive lineman. While Watt pretty much broke ProFootballFocus’ rating system by recording the first ever 100+ rating in its history, Atkins had the second best grade in its history. He’s also been doing it longer as the 2010 4th round pick has been great for 3 years, even as a rookie when he wasn’t yet a starter. Going into a contract year, he signed a 5-year, 55 million dollar extension this off-season and he’s one of the few players in the NFL who is a bargain at that rate. He’s a defensive end in a defensive tackle’s body at 6-1 303.

3. OLB Von Miller (Denver)

I might have put Von Miller 2nd if it weren’t for his recent 6 game suspension. That’s concerning both because he’ll miss 6 games, but also because he’s probably a mistake away from a yearlong suspension. Still, he’s supremely talented and will be missed big time by the Broncos when he’s gone. He’s had 31 sacks in his first 2 seasons in the league, purely as a sub package rusher and, in base packages, he’s as good as any linebacker against the run and also holds his own in coverage. He was the only player to steal a vote away from JJ Watt for Defensive Player of the Year last year and rightfully so.

4. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Adrian Peterson would be #1 on this list if I were more confident he could even come close to what he did last year in 2013. Of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. The average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to do so and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards. He’s the top ranked running back and offensive player though. He’s earned that.

5. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 45 games, including playoffs, Aaron Rodgers has completed 1026 of 1510 (67.9%) for 12738 yards (8.4 YPA), 122 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 901 yards and 8 touchdowns on 175 carries in those games. He’s gone 35-10 in those 45 games, winning an MVP and a Super Bowl in the process. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in interception rate and QB rating to boot. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL and will continue to keep this team in Super Bowl contention as long as he’s under center.

[yard_barker]

6. DE Cameron Wake (Miami)

Cameron Wake is the highest ranked of actually a surprisingly high amount of undrafted free agents on this list, but how he slipped through the cracks is the most baffling. Wake went to Penn State of all places, where he was a linebacker at Linebacker U, though he’d move to defensive end at times in passing situations. Wake was a final cut of the Giants in 2005 as an undrafted free agent and eventually ended up in Canada, where he converted to defensive end and had an absurd 39 sacks in 2 years and won Defensive Player of the Year twice. That got him back on the NFL’s radar and he signed with the Dolphins before the 2009 season. Wake was incredible as a reserve that season, recording a sack, hit or hurries on a ridiculous 24.6% of his pass rush snaps. He turned that into a starting job in 2010 and has emerged as arguably the best edge rusher in the NFL over the past 3 seasons as a starter, playing both rush linebacker and defensive end in the process, with 42 sacks in 3 seasons, including a career high 17 in 2012. On top of that, he’s excellent against the run.

7. MLB Patrick Willis (San Francisco)

I’ve said this a bunch of times throughout this series, but there isn’t a middle linebacker in the NFL that compares to Patrick Willis. You could even argue he deserves to be higher on this list for that reason. He’s been the best middle linebacker in the NFL pretty much 6 years running, dating back to his Defensive Rookie of the Year season as the 11th overall pick in 2007. He’s made both the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro team in each of his first 6 years in the league and, at age 28, he could conceivably do that over the next 6 seasons as well. I don’t like to call players future Hall of Famers before they’re 30, but Willis is a Future Hall of Famer, perhaps on the 1st ballot.

8. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s single season receiving yardage record last season, shattering it you could even say, as his 1964 receiving yards were over 100 more than Rice’s 1848 in his 1995 season. He actually surpassed Rice’s mark in week 16. However, it’s not a fair comparison. It’s easier to get open as a receiver nowadays with all of the rule changes. Also, Rice’s 49ers passed 644 times, as opposed to 740 times for the 2012 Lions. Johnson was actually only 4th in the NFL in yards per route run last season, tied with Michael Crabtee, behind Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon (who ran a lot fewer routes), and Brandon Marshall. He’s still the best wide receiver in the league though. The 96 catches for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns he had in 2011 seem like a statistical floor for him at this point.

9. G Evan Mathis (Philadelphia)

Of all the top-10 players on this list, Evan Mathis is by far the most overlooked, even by his fellow players, who didn’t even vote him to the top-100 players. He’s also never made a Pro-Bowl or an All-Pro team. However, he’s been by far the best guard in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, allowing 1 sack total (the only sack the 2005 3rd round pick has allowed in 53 career starts) and dominating in the run game. Part of the reason why he’s overlooked is because he wasn’t really much before coming to the Eagles in 2011, a solid starter in 2009 for the Bengals and a reserve in 2010. He played so well on a one year deal in 2011 that he was given a 5-year, 25.5 million dollar deal last off-season and he played so well in a repeat season in 2012 that now that deal even looks like a bargain.

10. QB Tom Brady (New England)

Even going into his age 36 season, Brady himself probably won’t significantly decline this season. He’s shown no significant signs of decline. Last season was the worst of his past 3 seasons as he “only” completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but those were still all at or above his career averages. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 109 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. His supporting cast could hurt him a little, but at the same time, no one has done the next man up thing in the receiving corps better than Brady. Remember, from 2001-2007 Brady had 5 different leading receivers in 7 years and only Randy Moss, who the Patriots got for a mere 4th round pick, ever did anything of note before or after joining forces with Tom Brady. Aside from Moss, those receivers were Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, David Givens, and Deion Branch.

[google_ad]

11. OT Duane Brown (Houston)

I’m giving Duane Brown the edge as the top left tackle in the NFL, as he’s been better than Joe Thomas over the past 2 seasons and more consistent than Joe Staley. A great zone run blocker in Houston’s system, Duane Brown is even better in pass protection. Sacks aren’t a tell all stat, but from week 16 of the 2010 season to week 7 of the 2012 season, he didn’t allow a single sack, 27 games including playoffs.

12. CB Richard Sherman (Seattle)

Richard Sherman/Darrelle Revis is the debate for the top cornerback in the NFL. I have Sherman a little bit higher only because he’s not coming off a torn ACL like Revis. Revis had been playing better for longer than Sherman before getting hurt so he has the higher upside of the two, when talking about their 2013 expectations, but few things are safer than a 25-year-old cornerback who has allowed less than 50% completion over his first two years in the league and 5 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

13. C Nick Mangold (NY Jets)

Since being drafted in the 1st round out of Ohio State in 2006, Nick Mangold has been the best center in the NFL. He didn’t have quite as good a season as he’s used to in 2012. Minnesota’s John Sullivan was better, but I’m giving Mangold the nod for consistent excellence. When you spend a 1st round pick on a center, you have to hope he turns out like Mangold because it’s just not worth the pick if you’re just getting a solid starting center. Mangold looks on his way to the Hall of Fame. It’s a shame he’s stuck on the Jets right now.

14. CB Darrelle Revis (Tampa Bay)

Though he’s coming off a torn ACL, Darrelle Revis has allowed 153 completions on 371 attempts (41.2%) for 1946 yards (5.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, while deflecting 62 passes, and committing 13 penalties over the past 5 seasons. That’s a QB rating allowed of 45.3. No one else even comes close to that and he does it despite shadowing the opponent’s #1 wide receiver on every snap, something that most #1 cornerbacks don’t do anymore. Apologies to Richard Sherman, but he’s the only cornerback in the NFL who, when healthy, you can legitimately build your defense around. Sherman is a safer bet at a younger age with less of an injury history, but at his best, no one is better than Revis. Players like him are almost never available and, when they are, they are usually sold for a price that doesn’t meet their value because that’s simply not possible. It was a perfect storm that led to the Jets trading him, the cornerback equivalent of Peyton Manning being available last off-season.

15. C John Sullivan (Minnesota)

As I said in Mangold’s write up, John Sullivan actually outplayed him last season. Sullivan has actually been one of the top centers in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, doing his best work in 2012, when he was a huge part of Adrian Peterson’s 2000+ yard season. Peterson averaged 6.4 yards per carry running between the center and right guard last season, even higher than his season average of 6.0 yards per carry. On top of that, he had just 12 combined allowed sacks, hits, hurries, and committed penalties, tied for best in the NFL among centers.

[switch_ad_hub]

16. DT Kyle Williams (Buffalo)

In 2010 and 2012, Kyle Williams was one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, with an injury plagued 2011 season in between. In 2010, he was a nose tackle who dominated on the nose in base packages, but also led the defensive line in snaps played and was very productive as a penetrating pass rusher in sub packages and obvious passing situations. In 2012, he was a defensive tackle in a 4-3 and appeared to be a better fit for that position, though he can play anywhere. This year, the Bills are moving to a hybrid scheme and he’ll play some nose tackle, some 4-3 defensive tackle, and some 5-technique defensive end. There might not be a more versatile high level defensive lineman in the NFL.

17. S Eric Weddle (San Diego)

This is the first and only Charger on the list, making the Chargers the only team in the NFL with just 1 player in the top-200. They’re better than teams like Oakland and Jacksonville who only have 2 because they have better quarterback play and because their top-200 player is ranked much higher than anyone on the Raiders or Jaguars, but it just speaks to the lack of talent in San Diego as a result of years of poor drafting by AJ Smith and poor player development by Norv Turner and his coaching staff. Weddle, however, is the best safety in the game.

18. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Peyton Manning surprised everyone last season, coming off of 4 neck surgeries, with a completely different team after being cut, completing 68.6% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, all better than his career average. In terms of QB rating, it was the 2nd best season of his career, behind only his then-record-setting 2004 season, in which he threw 49 touchdowns. It’s possible that the addition of Welker can lead to an even further improved Manning, but I don’t find it that likely that Manning will surpass the arguably 2nd best season of his career in what is his age 37 season. It’s more likely that regression to the mean and normal diminishing physical skills for a 37-year-old who has recently had a serious injury lead to an inferior 2013 as compared to 2012 for Manning. Sure, Manning’s mean is still one of the best in the game, but I don’t buy that he’ll be improved over last season just because of Wes Welker’s presence on the slot. Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s post-season success is the primary factor that puts than above Manning.

19. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. As a rookie in 2011, AJ Green 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns, the most receiving yards of any 1st round receiver in that timeframe. In 2012, he improved on that, catching 97 passes for 1350 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s done all of this before his 3rd year in the league, when receivers normally break out and, going into only his age 25 season, he should continue to get even better. He’s the best receiver this side of Calvin Johnson.

20. OT Joe Staley (San Francisco)

I mentioned Joe Staley in Joe Thomas’ write up. He was probably the best left tackle in the game last season, but he’s not my highest ranked left tackle because he’s only really had one season on that level. In 2011, his first Pro-Bowl season, he wasn’t really that great yet. I have one left tackle ahead of him because of his recent consistency and you can argue that Thomas is deserves to be ahead of him because of his longer term consistency.

Go on to 21-40

[google_ad]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]