Year: 2013

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10)

What’s reportedly happening in Washington between Head Coach Mike Shanahan and Owner Dan Snyder is one of the most dysfunctional things that has happened between a head coach and Owner in a long while. Shanahan has benched Robert Griffin and will be shutting him down for the season, leaving the team with Kirk Cousins as the starter and Rex Grossman as the backup going forward. That much is known. What’s also being reported is that the reason Shanahan is doing this is out of spite to owner Dan Snyder in an attempt to get fired.

Snyder wants Shanahan to quit so he wouldn’t have to pay him his $7 million dollar salary for 2014, but Shanahan wants that money (possibly knowing this is the end of his career as an NFL head coach) so he is standing his ground and trying to get himself fired. This is despite the fact that he reportedly thought about quitting last season because his relationship with Snyder had broken down and only didn’t because Griffin got hurt. Ironically, the guys at ESPN floated around the idea of benching Robert Griffin for Kirk Cousins as a legitimate idea a few weeks ago and now Shanahan is doing exactly that out of sabotage. Great job guys.

If it’s true, it’s obviously a very dysfunctional situation, but even if it’s not true, Kirk Cousins is going to start this one here. Cousins is a downgrade over Griffin, who wasn’t having that bad of a season. He wasn’t playing at the level he was at last year because of an ACL injury, an off-season for the league to adjust, and an unsustainable interception rate and rate of fumbles recovered. However, he was still completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with 489 rushing yards on 86 carries. The Redskins offense, moving the chains at a solid 71.73% rate, has been the strength of the team. Their defense is just allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.60% rate.

Cousins could have a good game though. He’s definitely flashed in limited action in relief of Griffin thus far in his two year career, but overall his numbers have left something to be desired, as he’s completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.89 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He hasn’t done enough to prove the league wrong for letting him fall to the 4th round yet. However, Atlanta’s defense is almost as bad as Washington’s, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.87% rate, so Cousins could have some success. He’ll also be able to lean on Alfred Morris against the Falcons’ putrid run defense.

Given that, this line seems too high. This line has actually shifted a ridiculous 4.5 points from this week to last week, as the early line had Atlanta favored by 2.5, but now they are favored by 7 points and the public is still all over them. That’s significant as it passed the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6 all the way to the key number of 7. On average, about 25% of games are decided by 3-7 points, so that line movement is much more significant than the public seems to realize. A line will only shift that much if a top level quarterback gets injured. I don’t think that line movement is valid.

Yes, I guess Griffin is “injured,” but I don’t think the downgrade from him to Cousins is significant enough for the line to shift that much. The dysfunction surrounding the franchise is also a factor, but, at the end of the day, the individual players care more about proving themselves on the field for the new coaching staff and maybe for new teams in 2014 than they do about bickering between the owner and the head coach.

I think the main factor for the line movement was Washington’s blowout loss at home to Kansas City last week, as they lost 45-10. However, it wasn’t as bad as that would suggest as the Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns on returns. That’s inconsistent and the Redskins were actually much more competitive in terms of first downs (20 to 13 Kansas City) and yards (346 to 257 Washington), than the final score would suggest.

Actually, the fact that they got blown out last week makes it more likely that they’ll cover the spread this week. Teams are 44-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think all three are definitely going to be true this week.

Starting with undervalued, I already mentioned the huge line movement, but the fact that the Redskins are underdogs of 6 or more here is very relevant. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Falcons, however, sit at 3-10 and cannot possibly finish better than 6-10. In spite of that, they are still favored by a touchdown. For what it’s worth, the Falcons are the first 3-10 teams favored by more than 6 points as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, the Falcons have just three home victories of more than a touchdown over the past two seasons combined and that includes last season when they went 13-3. Of those three wins, only two came by more than a touchdown and they haven’t won all season by more than 8 points.

Now going onto overlooked, it definitely makes sense that the Falcons would overlook a dysfunctional team like the Redskins this week, especially with a trip to San Francisco and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game on the schedule next week. The Falcons will almost definitely be underdogs of 10 or more in San Francisco next week and teams tend to be distracted and struggle to cover the spread before being double digit underdogs.

Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. Going off of that, teams are 9-26 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 7 or more before being double digit underdogs. Atlanta has proven they’ll get up for big games even in the midst of their disappointing season, almost knocking off New Orleans a few weeks ago. However, they also don’t seem to put up a ton of effort for lesser opponents, getting blown out by Tampa Bay, losing in Green Bay to Matt Flynn, and barely beating the Bills on essentially a neutral field, to go with that New Orleans game in their last 4 game stretch. With the biggest game remaining on their schedule coming up next week, I’d be shocked if they brought their “A game” for Washington this week.

Finally, going onto embarrassed, I think this one is pretty self-explanatory and I think the Redskins’ level of embarrassment right now as professional football players will allow them to play as well as they can, despite what’s going on between Shanahan and Snyder. Their “A game” isn’t very good anymore, but it’s still good enough for them to keep it close with a mediocre at best Atlanta team that almost definitely won’t have their A game. This would be my Pick of the Week if Griffin were playing or if I trusted Cousins more, but there’s too much stuff going on in Washington’s favor this week for me to not make them a high confidence pick at the very least.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8)

One thing people who make picks way too often fail to do is look at who the team plays next. In this case, the Cardinals play arguably the best team in the NFL next week when they go to Seattle, while the Titans play arguably the worst team in the NFL next week when they go to Jacksonville. That matters. The Cardinals could easily not be focused here for the non-conference Titans when a trip to divisional Seattle for one of the biggest games of the season is on deck. Teams are 36-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. Making matters worse, they face San Francisco the following week. Those two games are going to be so much more important for this team.

The Titans, meanwhile, have no distractions with a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams usually cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, going 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more. It might not seem like the Titans will be favored by more than a field goal in Jacksonville, but, remember, they were favored by 12 points at home over the Jaguars a few weeks ago. On top of that, the Texans were favored by 3.5 points in Jacksonville last week and the Bills are favored by 2 points there this week. The odds makers don’t have a lot of respect for the Jaguars (and rightfully so).

Even if, for whatever reason, they don’t end up being favored by that much in Jacksonville, they’re still in a very good spot simply because they will be road favorites of some amount in Jacksonville next week. Non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites cover at one of the highest rates I’ve ever seen, going 41-11 ATS since 1989.

The lowly Texans covered in this situation two weeks ago against the Patriots, before going to Jacksonville, where they lost. The Titans are in the same situation. The odds makers won a lot of money with that one as the public was all over New England. The same thing is true here. Combining the situation the Cardinals are in and the one the Titans are in, teams are 13-5 ATS since 1989 as home underdogs before being road favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

This line is a little big anyway. I don’t understand how the Cardinals are giving a field goal to the Titans in any situation, let alone this one. The Cardinals are a good football team, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 68.41% for their opponents, but the Titans are also pretty decent, moving the chains at a 70.76% rate, as opposed to 71.67% for their opponents. The Cardinals are 8th in differential, while the Titans are 17th. That suggests this line should be around 1, at most, in favor of Arizona.

This line suggests the Cardinals would be favored by 9 at home. Last week, the Cardinals were favored by 6 over St. Louis at home. The Rams are not 3 points better than the Titans. The Titans were favored by 3 in St. Louis a few weeks ago and covered in a touchdown victory. The Cardinals also aren’t as good on the road as at home. While they are 6-1 at home, including wins over Detroit, Carolina, and Indianapolis, on the road, they’ve lost in St. Louis, Philadelphia, got blown out in San Francisco and New Orleans, and their only wins were against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, who each started the season 0-8. As long as this line is 3, giving us field goal protection, Tennessee is my Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)

Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.50 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while leading the Broncos to 42.3 points per game. The Broncos have surpassed 35 points per game in 6 of 7 home games this season, with the exception being against a Kansas City defense that was the best in the NFL in points per game allowed at that point, when the Broncos “only” hung 27.

As a result, the Broncos have won all 7 home games by an average of 20.43 points per game and they’ve covered in every game except for one, when they were 27 point favorites over Jacksonville, the largest line in NFL history, and “only” won by 16. They’ve also won every game by at least 10 points, with the closest being against a solid Kansas City team, which is very relevant considering this line is at 10. Their home dominance is nothing new as they are 12-4 ATS at home since Peyton Manning came to town last season, with one of those ATS losses being in the playoff game to Baltimore.

The Broncos will essentially be able to name their point total against San Diego this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.32% rate. The Chargers are a solid football team. In fact, they move the chains at a 78.29% rate, which is not only better than their opponents, but the 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver (81.54%). They’ll be able to move the ball against a vulnerable Denver defense (72.04%), but not nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos. Even if the Chargers are an average football team, the Broncos have beaten the average football team by 20.43 points per game this season at home and no one has been closer than 10.

Especially helpful is how good Peyton Manning is at night. I don’t know if he’s a vampire or something, but he’s 31-13 ATS in night games since 2003, including 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights. The Broncos also have no distractions here with a trip to Houston on deck. Teams generally cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, which the Broncos will almost definitely be against one of the worst teams in the NFL next week. Teams are 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more.

The Chargers also don’t have any distractions this week, which is part of why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. They host the lowly Raiders next. Double digit underdogs before being favorites are 50-32 ATS since 2002. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 60-38 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more since 2002, including 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more before being favorites of 7 or more. However, I don’t think that helps them out enough to keep this one close. This is going to be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 45 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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2013 Week 14 NFL Pick Results

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Week 14

Straight Up: 10-6

Against the Spread: 5-11

Pick of the Week: 0-1

High Confidence: 1-1

Medium Confidence: 0-3

Low Confidence: 0-4

No Confidence: 4-2

Upset Picks: 0-4

2013

Straight Up: 140-67-1

Against the Spread: 122-80-6

Pick of the Week: 8-6

High Confidence: 20-6

Medium Confidence: 28-19

Low Confidence: 31-18-2

No Confidence: 35-31-4

Upset Picks: 24-22

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Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

Offense

Team First downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts  Percent
Denver 363 61 52 25 0 19 81.54%
San Diego 306 33 47 17 1 29 78.29%
New Orleans 288 40 48 14 8 27 77.18%
Carolina 272 32 54 16 2 23 76.19%
Chicago 286 36 55 16 4 27 75.94%
Detroit 293 39 54 28 9 20 74.94%
Seattle 256 36 52 16 5 28 74.30%
Dallas 261 37 69 13 1 21 74.13%
Atlanta 266 29 52 23 7 22 73.93%
New England 304 36 64 18 7 32 73.75%
Philadelphia 281 39 71 16 5 23 73.56%
Green Bay 274 30 53 20 4 33 73.43%
Cincinnati 266 36 64 24 6 20 72.60%
Indianapolis 257 31 61 13 6 30 72.36%
Washington 278 29 69 22 11 19 71.73%
Arizona 270 30 66 25 3 26 71.43%
Kansas City 264 30 74 13 6 25 71.36%
Pittsburgh 255 29 64 19 6 26 71.18%
Tennessee 240 31 66 20 5 21 70.76%
Minnesota 251 31 62 25 7 27 69.98%
St. Louis 236 26 65 17 11 22 69.50%
San Francisco 225 32 66 18 3 26 69.46%
Houston 262 24 67 23 10 31 68.59%
Miami 234 28 66 20 6 33 67.70%
Cleveland 247 26 72 23 13 23 67.57%
NY Giants 239 26 69 34 6 20 67.26%
Tampa Bay 224 23 71 16 9 26 66.94%
Baltimore 241 24 75 22 5 31 66.58%
Oakland 218 26 73 21 3 26 66.49%
Buffalo 239 25 82 24 7 27 65.35%
Jacksonville 215 18 83 20 12 21 63.14%
NY Jets 214 18 77 28 6 29 62.37%

 

Defense

Team First Downs Touchdowns Punts Turnovers Failed 4th downs Field goal attempts  Percent
Baltimore 223 24 83 17 6 30 64.49%
Kansas City 239 25 77 28 9 21 66.17%
Carolina 219 16 57 26 7 28 66.57%
Cincinnati 236 23 75 23 7 25 66.58%
San Francisco 227 23 70 24 10 20 66.84%
Buffalo 256 33 78 23 4 30 68.16%
Arizona 248 27 70 25 9 23 68.41%
Seattle 243 18 61 28 7 23 68.68%
NY Jets 235 31 70 10 8 32 68.91%
New Orleans 229 24 66 17 6 24 69.13%
Detroit 238 31 67 18 3 31 69.33%
Houston 221 33 73 9 3 26 69.59%
Miami 258 26 64 22 6 30 69.95%
Pittsburgh 243 31 65 15 6 30 70.26%
Cleveland 263 33 78 16 4 27 70.31%
New England 280 30 68 24 10 23 71.26%
Tennessee 271 30 63 20 2 34 71.67%
NY Giants 270 29 64 21 9 24 71.70%
Tampa Bay 263 30 56 29 4 25 71.99%
Denver 284 38 71 23 10 21 72.04%
Philadelphia 300 28 63 25 10 25 72.73%
Oakland 259 35 66 18 4 22 72.77%
St. Louis 273 34 62 24 6 19 73.44%
Indianapolis 270 33 57 19 6 27 73.54%
Green Bay 265 35 58 16 7 24 74.07%
Chicago 280 36 49 23 4 26 75.60%
Jacksonville 283 41 63 18 2 21 75.70%
Atlanta 268 37 50 12 4 31 75.87%
Minnesota 305 42 62 18 5 24 76.10%
San Diego 272 31 51 14 5 24 76.32%
Washington 280 44 57 19 4 19 76.60%
Dallas 324 40 49 25 7 24 77.61%

 

Differential

Team  Percent
Carolina 9.62%
Denver 9.50%
New Orleans 8.05%
Cincinnati 6.02%
Seattle 5.62%
Detroit 5.61%
Kansas City 5.19%
Arizona 3.02%
San Francisco 2.61%
New England 2.49%
Baltimore 2.09%
San Diego 1.97%
Pittsburgh 0.92%
Philadelphia 0.84%
Chicago 0.35%
Green Bay -0.64%
Tennessee -0.91%
Houston -1.00%
Indianapolis -1.18%
Atlanta -1.94%
Miami -2.25%
Cleveland -2.73%
Buffalo -2.81%
Dallas -3.48%
St. Louis -3.95%
NY Giants -4.44%
Washington -4.87%
Tampa Bay -5.05%
Minnesota -6.12%
Oakland -6.29%
NY Jets -6.55%
Jacksonville -12.56%

 

Projected Week 15 Lines

DEN/SD 10.53409
IND/HOU 2.822029
NE/MIA 1.738824
PHI/MIN 3.957251
ATL/WAS 5.930963
CHI/CLE 0.079841
BUF/JAX 6.74346
SEA/NYG 7.059799
SF/TB 4.667042
CAR/NYJ 19.16456
KC/OAK 8.481073
DAL/GB 0.161535
ARZ/TEN 0.930098
NO/STL 8.999742
CIN/PIT 2.093642
DET/BAL 6.521617

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 14th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Bears move them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th in the NFL. The Cowboys, however, sit at 24th, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents.

However, the Bears have only covered two games this season, which could explain why this line is even. They have two pushes, but they are 2-8-2 ATS on the season and one of those covers was in the game Aaron Rodgers got knocked out in the first quarter and they still struggled to beat the Packers with an unprepared Seneca Wallace under center. Last week, they lost to the Vikings, who are among the worst teams in the NFL.

They’ve been very reliant on their offense this season, but as Josh McCown has played very well in Jay Cutler’s absence, completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 75.8, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. If this is the week McCown decides to shit the bed, the Bears could be in a lot of trouble and that could happen. The Cowboys’ defense sucks, but they get Sean Lee back this week, which helps. Gun to my head, I’m taking the team that, on paper, has the better offense, and defense, and is at home, but I’m not confident in it.

Chicago Bears 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans. Their 2 losses came by a combined 59 points against the Cardinals and Rams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule, but they are still -45 in point differential since the bye.

Some people may point to the loss of Reggie Wayne as the reason why and that would be a valid point. Wayne went down right before the bye in a huge win against the Broncos and they’ve really struggled since that game. Andrew Luck has completed 107 of 194 (55.2%) for 1219 yards (6.28 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his last 5 games without Wayne. However, their offensive line and defense have been playing down to their 2012 level again.

Overall, they are playing like 2012 again, when they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in order to get to the 11-5 record at which they finished. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 16th in the NFL and even that takes into account their hot start to the season when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

That could mean trouble for them here as they did terribly on the road against quality football teams last season, losing by 12 in Houston, 20 in Chicago, and 35 in New England. The Bengals are certainly a quality football team who could blow them out if they play like they did last year. They’ve been dominant at home this year, winning all 5 games straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points per game. I’m not confident in Cincinnati because this spread seems awfully high at 6.5 (even rate of moving the chains says this line should be around 5.5) and because the Colts might play up to their level of competition again, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time since 1989 that a team won the yardage battle by that much. They again won the yardage battle by that much last week, outgaining the Packers 561 to 126, the 4th time a team had won the yardage battle by that much since 1989. They also won by 30, despite losing the turnover battle, the 15th time a team had done that since 1989. The Lions are now moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 5th in the NFL. They need to avoid turnovers, but that type of thing can be very inconsistent.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Obviously, they’re better than that now that Nick Foles is under center. Foles is completing 63.3% of his passes for an average of 9.14 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and no interceptions on the season. They are 6-1 when he leads the team in passing attempts and 1-4 when he doesn’t.

However, they still have defensive problems and Foles has yet to beat a team as talented as Detroit. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles are 7-24 ATS at home since 2010 (11-20 straight up). They’ve only had Foles for 3 of those games, but he’s 1-1-1 ATS. The Eagles are also in a bad spot at home off of back to back home wins. Teams are 32-55 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Lions should be the right side, but I am nervous about going against Foles again. I definitely wish I was getting field goal protection as well.

Detroit Lions 27 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Packers are home favorites here and will probably be road underdogs in Dallas next week, while the Falcons will be home favorites for the Redskins. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, there’s also a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns next week, in which case the Packers would probably be favored in Dallas next week, which would make that trend irrelevant. Given that, I actually like the Packers this week. They aren’t as bad as they looked last week, when they were playing on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters of football in a tie the week before. I’m not saying they’re a good team without Rodgers by any means. After all, they played Minnesota to a tie in Green Bay. However, they’re better than they looked last week. They have the most talented quarterback under center since Rodgers went down in Matt Flynn and he has now had more time with the play book. The Packers are well rested after that Thursday game and they should be the right side here. I’m not confident though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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