Year: 2013

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (7-5) at St. Louis Rams (5-7)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Rams are in a great spot as road underdogs off of a road loss, after last week’s loss in San Francisco. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects.

However, the Rams have to host the Saints next week so they might not be able to be focused enough to compete here. Teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 5 in favor of New Orleans.

We’re also not getting any line value either way as this line is right around where it should be. The Cardinals rank 10th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. The Rams, meanwhile, 20th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. I have this line calculated at 6, which is exactly where it is. We can’t even fade the public because the public is also split almost completely. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Cardinals because of how fluky some of the Rams’ victories have been this season, but I have no confidence at all.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans, I think the odds makers are set to make a lot of money here. I love fading the public and I think they are flat out wrong here because they aren’t seeing the whole picture.

This line suggests that the Redskins would be underdogs of about 9.5 points in Kansas City. This is the same team that didn’t cover as 7.5 point home favorites against the Texans and Browns and that was when they still had Justin Houston. They really miss him and their pass rush has suddenly become non-existent. They have 1 sack in the past 3 weeks, after 36 in their first 9 games. As a result, they have allowed 103 points over the past 3 games, after allowing just 111 in their first 9 games combined.

Sure, they’ve faced a very tough batch of offenses in the last 3 weeks, going against Denver twice and San Diego, but you can just as easily point out that they faced a very easy batch of offenses in their first 9 games. Over their last 5 games before the first Denver game, they faced a backup quarterback in 4 of 5 games, including three 3rd string quarterbacks. They beat those three 3rd string quarterbacks by a combined 17 points. They were way too dependent on easy competition, recovering fumbles, winning the turnover battle, and return touchdowns for close wins early in the season. They’ve just been exposed over the past 3 weeks, especially without Justin Houston.

Also, the Redskins don’t have a bad offense at all, moving the chains at a 75% rate. Their biggest issue is their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, but we’re still getting line value with them. The Chiefs’ offense moves the ball at just a 73% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 2 points and that’s before you take schedule into account. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs have faced the easiest schedule, while the Redskins have faced the 12th hardest.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. They put everything they had into that Denver game last week and came up short. They’re essentially locked into the 5th seed no matter what they do. They have a 3 game lead over the 6th seeded Ravens and they are essentially two games back of the Broncos for the division (1 game and tiebreaker) who have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. Teams are 38-51 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as home favorites since 1989.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a situation teams are 65-45 ATS in since 2002. They’re actually in their third straight game as home underdogs. It’s a small sample size obviously, but teams are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs off of back-to-back losses as home underdogs since 2002, 13-6 ATS if you go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. It would be a bigger play on the Redskins if I trusted they hadn’t mailed in the season, unfamiliar with struggling after what happened last year, but they should get up for this one and as long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 140 points. They’ve lost their last 3 games by the combined score of 79-20 and Geno Smith has completed 29 of 74 for 374 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over his past 4 games, a quarterback rating of 22.0 and might not start the next game, after being pulled for Matt Simms at halftime last week. Their offense is the worst in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65% rate, nullifying their solid defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72% rate, a differential that ranks 31st in the NFL.

They’re also in a bad spot here as they have to go to Carolina next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 34-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could just be too distracted here. The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Dallas. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. It also helps the Raiders that they got extra rest off of a Thursday game last week.

There are four reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Raiders. For one, they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. Teams tend to struggle in that spot. Two, the Raiders aren’t much better than the Jets. The Jets may rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 30th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponent. We’re not really getting any line value with them.

Three, the Raiders are a huge public underdog. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially on heavy leans on the underdog. Any time the public thinks one team is going to pull an upset, it’s definitely a concern. The fourth and final reason is I really like the way the Jets have dealt with the public being against them over the past couple of years. They do a great job bouncing back, going 5-3 ATS off of a loss of 17+ and 5-3 ATS as dogs off of a loss. As long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, the Raiders should still be the right side though.

Oakland Raiders 13 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)

The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being even in some other places and Atlanta being favored by a 1 point or two at the beginning of the week. However, with the exception of that, the last time they were favored was at home for Arizona week 4 and the only other instance was week 1 in New York for the Jets, both non-covers.

This is an obvious sandwich game situation, as the Bills as favorites in between a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. The Buccaneers lost in Carolina last week and host San Francisco next week. Teams are 76-99 ATS in that spot since 2008. It gets worse for the Buccaneers because teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 6 in favor of San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are in a much better situation with only a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being home underdogs since 2008. The underdog has no distractions to compete with a favorite, who could be distracted. I know the Bills will be road favorites and the Buccaneers will be home favorites, but the same logic should work and it might be an even more powerful situation. There’s just not enough of a sample size with that specific situation as this is just the 10th time it’s happened since 1989 (5-4 ATS). Going off of that, teams are 33-51 ATS before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

The Bills are also the better team. They move the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 28th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 71% for themselves. It’s not enough that we’re getting significant line value, but it’s definitely worth noting. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Bills, but they definitely seem like the right side.

Buffalo Bills 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Steelers, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of thing usually evens out and the Steelers are +5 in turnovers since then. As a result, they are 5-3 since their bye and they played good football in two of their losses and easily could have won (@ Oakland, @ Baltimore).

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, as they’ve had major offensive line problems and their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests this line should be somewhere around 5.5 instead.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, as they head home to face the Patriots next week. Teams are 52-78 ATS in that spot. They’ll probably be too distracted to compete on the road against a superior football team. Going off of that, teams are 60-101 ATS before being home underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2010. Also, fun fact, Dolphins are 17-27 ATS since 1989 before playing the Patriots. It’s not, on its own, a reason to take the Steelers, but it’s worth noting. The Steelers are also rested off of a Thursday night game. I like the Steelers chances here as long as they are only laying a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, completing just 59.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, obviously different numbers than he’s used to. I don’t know if that statistic is as powerful as it seems because he has some strong games in the 33-40 degree range and I don’t think there’s anything magic about the number 32 that makes him terrible, unless he’s secretly a liquid.

However, there’s definitely a trending down of his play as the temperature gets colder, more than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks. Those problems seem to be more pronounced as he’s gotten older and dealt with more injury problems (the loss in New England and the home loss to Baltimore last year are 2 of his 6 losses since coming to Denver) and now he’s going to have to deal with incredibly cold temperatures at home in Denver this week with Tennessee coming to town. The game time temperature for this one is expected to be somewhere around 10 degrees and fall into single digits over the course of the game.

Peyton Manning probably won’t lose the game solely because of the cold, but it’s going to make it very tough for the Broncos to cover this 13 point spread. That spread is ridiculous to begin with. The Titans are a decent football team, which moves the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which ranks 17th in the NFL in terms of differential. They’ve been competitive with both Seattle and Kansas City this year and they don’t deserve to be 13 point underdogs against anyone. I have this line calculated around 8.5 points.

The Broncos have really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 7 games, Peyton Manning has completed 177 of 288 (61.4%) for 2241 yards (7.78 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is and not taking the weather into account. In spite of that, the public is still all over the Broncos, which is why the odds makers can inflate the line and still make a lot of money with a Tennessee cover. Fading heavy public leans is always a good idea.

The Titans are also in a good spot here as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Indianapolis. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a bad spot, as they play on Thursday night next week. They could definitely get caught looking forward to that, especially since the divisional Chargers are coming to town. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. I have confidence that the Titans will keep this one closer than 13.

Denver Broncos 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +13

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)

The Chargers are in an incredibly tough situation this week because they have to face the Broncos a few days after this one in Denver on Thursday Night Football. That is undoubtedly the biggest game of their season. They’ll obviously not want to overlook the Giants here as they are in the midst of a playoff race, but it might be unavoidable. It’s going to be very, very hard for them to get up for a non-conference opponent they see every 4 years with that game up next.

The Chargers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in Denver next week. The early line has them has 11 point underdogs and a few weeks ago they were underdogs of a touchdown at home against the Broncos (and failed to cover). Teams generally really struggle before being double digit underdogs because they get caught looking forward to such a big game. Teams are 34-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010.

The fact that this game is on Thursday Night Football doesn’t help matters. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. This is a near impossible situation for the Chargers to succeed in. I personally believe the Chargers are a better team than the Giants. The Chargers rank 12th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. The Giants, meanwhile, rank 27th, moving them at a 69% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents.

However, it’s not always about that. We’re getting more than a field goal here, which makes me more willing to take the Giants in spite of my personal opinions about these two teams. The Giants have been playing better football of late as their turnover problem has predictably corrected itself. They’ve won 5 of their last 6 and came close to beating Dallas. Granted none of those teams were very good, but it’s hard to argue the Chargers are significantly better. The Giants are also a dominant road team and have been since the beginning of the Tom Coughlin era in 2004. They are 34-19 ATS as road dogs in that time period. This is my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 27 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The Seahawks blew the Saints last week, winning 34-7 on Monday Night Football. Ordinarily, teams carry over that momentum off of a Monday night blowout into their next game, going 31-13 ATS since 2002 off of a win of 21 or more. However, I don’t think the Seahawks were as good as they looked last week. I’m not saying they’re bad at all. In fact, they might be the best team in the NFL. But they’re not 27 point win over the Saints good. Away from their incredible home field advantage, they could be exposed here in their biggest road test of the season.

They ordinarily don’t do well as road underdogs, going 14-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2007, including 8-17 ATS after a home game (teams generally cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are adjusted to being away from home). They’ve yet to be road underdogs yet this season. In fact, they’ve been road underdogs just once over the past 2 seasons, last year in San Francisco. They covered that game as 7.5 point underdogs because the 49ers declined a safety that would have been it a 9 point game, in favor of just running out the clock.

We also didn’t know how good the Seahawks were at the time. We do now, which is why this line is at 2.5 points, so we’re not getting any line value. The 49ers are a huge test for the Seahawks on the road. This game also means a lot more for the 49ers than the Seahawks. I’m not saying the Seahawks will completely sleepwalk through this game, but they are essentially locked into the #1 seed, unless they completely implode. The 49ers, meanwhile, need every win they can get to stay in the playoff picture and this is also a big revenge game for the 49ers. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS against teams that beat them in their last matchup, since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011.

I’m not that confident, however. The 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this season. Against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 6 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. In their other 6 games, Kaepernick has completed 70 of 137 for 747 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 166 yards and no touchdowns on 27 carries. They are 2-4 in those 6 games. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)

The Saints got blown out in Seattle last week 34-7, but there’s not a lot of shame in getting blown out in Seattle. They have the most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL and they also might be the best team in the NFL. This week, the Saints return home, where they have probably the 2nd most powerful homefield advantage in the NFL. The Saints haven’t lost against the spread, or straight up, at home under Sean Payton since 2010, 15 games.

Their only non-cover of that time period was three weeks ago at home as 3 point favorites against the 49ers, a 3 point win and push. Even that game should not have been that close, as they won despite losing the turnover battle by 2. They had 23 first downs to 12 for the 49ers and could have won by much more if it wasn’t for a muffed punt and a fumbled pick six. New Orleans at home is almost always as auto-bet. They’re 30-13 ATS as home favorites since 2008, including 27-10 ATS under Sean Payton.

This line would ordinarily suggest these two teams are even, as home field advantage is usually 3 points. They are very evenly matched teams. The Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2nd, as they move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. In terms of DVOA, the Panthers are 3rd, as opposed to 4th for their opponents.

However, 3 points is not the appropriate adjustment for the Saints’ home field advantage. This line should be at least 5 or 6, instead of 3, even if we agree these two teams are even, which I think they are. The Saints also usually dominate after a loss, going 20-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton. They’re also 11-3 ATS at home at night since Drew Brees came to town in 2006. They should put up a dominant performance here. I’m very confident they’ll win by at least 3. It’s worth noting I’m 12-0 ATS picking Saints games this season.

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

The Texans are 2-10, a game behind the Jaguars, and lost to the Texans at home two weeks ago. Why do they deserve to be favored here on the road by 3.5 points? Well, it’s because the Texans aren’t as bad as their record, while the Jaguars aren’t as good and just because one team beats another team, doesn’t mean they’d necessary win more than 50 times out of 100.

The Jaguars have 3 wins, but all 3 of them were by a touchdown or less against bad teams and they probably would not have beaten any of the 3 teams more than 50 times out of a 100, given how they played in the rest of their games. Their nine losses have all come by double digits. They’re still, by far, dead last in the NFL in point differential, DVOA, and rate of moving the chains. The Texans, meanwhile, have just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

However, the Texans could have completely quit on the season. They aren’t used to losing like this and they hadn’t been showing a lot of effort over the past month, up until last week’s near home win against the Patriots, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they’re done with that game, they might just completely mail it in. Teams usually struggle as road favorites off of a home loss as underdogs, going 38-51 ATS since 1989 in that spot.

The Texans might actually benefit from mailing it in, given that they are currently in the driver’s seat for the first pick. The Jaguars used to be in the driver’s seat for the first pick, but they didn’t seem to care about that, winning 3 of their last 4. However, there’s no reason to trust they’ll definitely put any effort into this one.  That’s the issue. This is a completely meaningless game that teams could actually benefit from losing. I’m not putting anything on that. You’d have to be a degenerate gambler to put any money on this game. Gun to my head, I’ll fade the public (slight lean on Houston) and hope for a field goal game, but I have no confidence.

Houston Texans 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: None

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