Year: 2013

2013 MLB Mock Draft

stevenlourie News, Uncategorized

1. Houston Astros- RHP Jonathan Gray (Oklahoma)

It’s between two right handed pitchers for the Astros right now, Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray, but I think Gray’s signability gets him the nod here given the state of the Astros’ organization. They can’t really go wrong with either and need as many talented prospects as they can get with a major league worst roster and a middling farm system.

2. Chicago Cubs- RHP Mark Appel (Stanford)

The Cubs will probably take whichever right hander the Astros don’t and in this case that’s Appel. Appel might be the superior prospect, but Scott Boras is his agent and he didn’t sign after being drafted 8th overall by the Pirates last year. The Cubs have money to spend and don’t seem scared off as they are widely known to be interested in both of the top two pitchers.

3. Colorado Rockies- 1B Kris Bryant (San Diego)

Bryant is a power hitter who can really play any of the corner infield or outfield spots. He is widely projected to the Rockies as the top offensive player in this draft and to them he makes the most sense as a 1st baseman. Todd Helton is aging and they don’t have a 1st baseman in the pipe among their top prospects.

4. Minnesota Twins- RHP Braden Shipley (Nevada)

This is where the draft really gets interesting as there’s no clear pick. The Twins have a bunch of high upside high schoolers to choose from and they’ve certainly gone in that direction often in the past, taking high schoolers in the 1st round 9 out of 15 times since 2001, including both times they’ve had a top-5 pick. However, after taking a huge chance on Bryon Buxton 2nd overall last year, they may want a safer alternative this year.

5. Cleveland Indians- 3B Colin Moran (North Carolina)

While the Twins love high schoolers, the Indians are the complete opposite. Prior to selecting Francisco Lindor in 2011, they hadn’t used a 1st round pick on a high schooler since 2001, so it makes sense that they are widely expected to take the best available college bat and that’s Moran in this case. They don’t have a 3rd baseman in the pipe among their top prospects and they don’t have a good one in the major league roster either, which is why they’ve been forced Mark Reynolds to play there when he’s a natural 1st baseman.

6. Miami Marlins- OF Clint Frazier (High School-GA)

The Marlins have no issue taking a high schooler early as the selection of Oklahoma State’s Andrew Heaney last year snapped a 5-year long streak of high schoolers. Frazier has the most upside of any prospect in this class and with the Marlins in the position they are, they really need to swing for the fences and they need help everywhere they can get it.

7. Boston Red Sox- RHP Kohl Stewart (High School-TX)

You can go back and forth between Stewart and Frazier for top high school prospect, but Frazier is the consensus top high school hitter and Stewart is the consensus top high school pitcher. He’d go earlier if it were known he’d sign, but he has a scholarship from Texas A&M to play quarterback. The Red Sox have the resources and the cachet to get the deal done though.

8. Kansas City Royals- LHP Sean Manaea (Indiana State)

The Royals gave away a lot of their farm in the James Shields/Wade Davis deal so they can really go in any direction here. Manaea would seem to be the best available, however. He’s the top lefty in this class and has an outside shot at the top-5 for that reason. If the Twins decide on a lefty college pitcher over a righty or the Indians decide to go pitcher over hitter, Manaea is the obvious choice. The Red Sox could have interest too if they want a safer pick.

9. Pittsburgh Pirates- C Reese McGuire (High School-WA)

The Pirates’ top two prospects are former top-2 pick pitchers and among the best prospects in baseball so I doubt they go with another pitcher here. Catcher is a needy position as they don’t have a highly rated catching prospect and on the big league roster Russell Martin is just on a 2 year deal. Last year’s 2nd round pick, Wyatt Mathisen, is having a lot of trouble with his defense and could be converted back into a shortstop. McGuire is another prospect that could go higher than this as catchers are reached for because of need more often than any other position. He also offers signability which the Pirates could put a greater value on after losing Appel last year.

10. Toronto Blue Jays- OF Austin Meadows (High School-GA)

The Blue Jays spent a lot of their farm bringing in Jose Reyes and RA Dickey and all them and it hasn’t really worked out, at least not yet. Because of this, they can really go anywhere and they are widely projected to take a high upside high schooler. Meadows looks like the favorite, with two way kid Trey Ball as the runner up.

11. New York Mets- 1B DJ Peterson (New Mexico)

Before last year, the Mets hadn’t drafted a high schooler since 2003 so expect them to focus on college players again this year. How they feel about Ike Davis, who has shown plenty of promise, but should be farther along than this at age 26, will impact this choice a lot. With Davis currently hitting .148 at 1st base, DJ Peterson seems awfully tempting as a 1st baseman of the future. He’s projects as a righty middle of the order power hitter and he’s one of the more MLB ready players in this class. The other option is Arkansas right handed pitcher Ryne Stanek, with Mississippi State outfielder Hunter Renfroe as the dark horse.

12. Seattle Mariners- 1B Dominic Smith (High School-CA)

The Mariners are once again a light hitting team, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored and 4 of their top 6 prospects are pitchers, so they’re probably thinking hitter here. Smith offers significantly more long term upside than light hitting 1st baseman Justin Smoak, who has not panned out as the Mariners would have liked when they traded Cliff Lee to the Rangers for him. The Mariners are without a power hitting 1st base prospect on their farm.

13. San Diego Padres- LHP Trey Ball (High School-IN)

The Padres have taken high schoolers with 4 of their last 5 first round picks and they do so again here. Ball is this draft class’ top two way player as he can play both shortstop and pitch left handed. Expect him to be a pitcher long term as lefties that can hit 94 like him are a rarity. Either way, he might be too good for the Padres to pass on.

14. Pittsburgh Pirates- RHP Ryne Stanek (Arkansas)

While the Pirates do have two of the top pitching prospects in baseball, you can’t completely rule out a pitcher for them with one of their two first round picks, especially if one like Stanek falls to them. After all, they drafted Appel 9th last year (before losing him) despite having two top pitching prospects. Stanek is one of the most MLB ready pitchers in this draft class and could have an impact as soon as 2015.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks- OF Hunter Renfroe (Mississippi State)

The Diamondbacks could go in a number of different directions with this pick. However, after trading Justin Upton and not receiving an outfield prospect in return, they don’t really have a top outfield prospect unless you count Adam Eaton, who is still rookie eligible, but is currently at the major league level on the DL with a serious elbow injury. He’s a different type of outfielder than Renfroe anyway.

16. Philadelphia Phillies- OF Austin Wilson (Stanford)

The Phillies have a real shortage of top outfield prospects at the moment as they are without one in their top-10. This is a problem because Delmon Young is currently playing right field and he’s not a long term solution. The Phillies go with a more MLB ready outfielder here in Austin Wilson, who is likely going to be seen as the top outfield prospect available ahead of high schooler Ryan Boldt.

17. Chicago White Sox- LHP Marco Gonzalez (Gonzaga)

Before breaking the trend last year, the White Sox had drafted only college players in the first round since 2001 so they’ll probably take a college player here. Gonzalez would seem to be the best available and he could instantly be the top left handed pitching prospect in an organization that lacks an elite one. Their farm system is also much more hitter heavy than pitcher heavy.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers- C Jonathan Denney (High School-OK)

The Dodgers have gone to the high school level for 8 of their last 10 first round picks and figure to look there again. The Dodgers don’t have a top catching prospect and while AJ Ellis is currently getting the job done now at the big league level, he’s already 32. Backup Ramon Hernandez is even older, just turning 37 in May. Youth desperately needs to be added.

19. St. Louis Cardinals- SS JP Crawford (High School-CA)

The Cardinals’ farm system is widely regarded as the best in baseball, but the one thing they lack is an elite shortstop prospect. They can afford to wait on the young Crawford and he might just be too good to pass on, despite their preference to draft college players. After all, their last high school 1st round pick, Shelby Miller in 2009, has worked out pretty well. Crawford could definitely go a lot earlier than this as the top middle infielder in the draft class.

20. Detroit Tigers- RHP Chris Anderson (Jacksonville)

The Tigers like taking power arms early and are widely expected to do so again this year considering their farm system is a little lighter on power arms than they’re used to. Anderson is a very MLB ready prospect and would instantly bolster what is seen as one of the worst farm systems in the majors. As good as their starting rotation and their major league team as a whole is right now, you always have to be looking towards the future.

21. Tampa Bay Rays- OF Ryan Boldt (High School-MN)

The Rays have the 2nd best farm system in the majors behind the Cardinals and their off-season trade of James Shields only made it better. They love drafting high upside high schoolers, going to that level with 7 of their last 9 1st round picks and they have time to wait on Boldt, who fits what they look for and has as much upside as anyone in this draft class. He’s got all 5 tools.

22. Baltimore Orioles- OF Aaron Judge (Fresno State)

The Orioles’ farm system lacks an elite outfield prospect and major league left fielder Nate McLouth is a journeyman who has bounced all over. Judge’s game has holes, but the 6-7 outfielder has as much power as anyone in this draft and won’t fall much farther than this. With Adam Jones and Nick Markakis already excelling in the majors, Judge could give them one of the best outfields in the majors if he develops by 2015, as some expect.

23. Texas Rangers- RHP Hunter Harvey (High School-NC)

The Rangers have gone with a high schooler with their last 6 first round picks and go there again. Harvey is a power arm who fits the Rangers’ bill and his name has been tied to them on several occasions for obvious reasons. The Rangers can afford to wait on him and he could eventually be a top end of the rotation starter as he has as much upside as any pitcher in this draft class.

24. Oakland Athletics- RHP Andrew Thurman (UC Irvine)

As anyone who has watched or read Moneyball can tell you, Billy Beane hates drafting raw high school players with a passion, due in large part to the fact that he was once one and totally flamed out. He must have seen something different last year when he took Addison Russell out of high school in the first, but before that it was a string of 15 straight college players in the first round. I expect him to get back to that. Thurman doesn’t have the best upside or velocity, but he has command of all of his pitches and he’s very MLB ready.

25. San Francisco Giants- SS Oscar Mercado (High School-FL)

The Giants’ farm system is awfully light on offensive prospects, which is an issue because that’s what their major league roster lacks of the most. Mercado’s bat needs improvement, but he’s young and he’s got a great glove. The Giants will have to wait on him, but he could end up being the best middle infielder from a draft class weak at the shortstop and 2nd base positions. The Giants need both and Mercado projects best to shortstop long term.

26. New York Yankees- LHP Matt Krook (High School-CA)

The Yankees’ last 4 first round picks have been high schoolers and they go there again to grab a high upside lefty. This makes a lot of sense because the Yankees’ position as perennial contenders allows them to sit back in the bottom of the 1st round and wait for the prospects to fall to them and they don’t have to force things and draft for need or draft for someone who can provide more immediate help.

27. Cincinnati Reds- C Nick Ciuffo (High School-SC)

The Reds lack a top catching prospect or a solidified major league level catcher so they could definitely focus on the position. Ciuffo has plenty of upside and a great bat, but he’s got a scholarship waiting at South Carolina and he needs a lot of work behind the plate. Still, the Reds take the risk and should be able to buy him out of his commitment.

28. St. Louis Cardinals- RHP Jonathan Crawford (Florida)

It doesn’t seem fair that the Cardinals get another two first round picks to add to their #1 rated farm system and their major league best squad, but they get this pick for losing Kyle Lohse this off-season. After going high school with their first pick, the Cardinals are likely to look at college with this one and they have a few collegiate arms to pick from, the likely highest rated of whom is Florida’s Jonathan Crawford.

29. Tampa Bay Rays- LHP Rob Kaminsky (High School-NJ)

As I mentioned during their first pick’s writeup, the Rays love high schoolers. After taking a hitter with their first pick, they add a pitcher into their 2nd ranked farm system with this one. Kaminsky is technically a two way player who can play the outfield, but his arm is much better than his bat so his long term future appears to be on the mound.

30. Texas Rangers- OF Michael Lorenzen (Cal State-Fullerton)

The Rangers add one of the draft’s most intriguing players to the fold in Lorenzen here with their 2nd pick of the first round. Lorenzen can play all over the field and he also was Cal State-Fullerton’s closer last year and tops out at 96 MPH with his fastball. The Rangers will find somewhere for him and his future right now seems to be as a cannon armed outfielder.

31. Atlanta Braves- RHP Bobby Wahl (Missouri)

Wahl is one of the more major league ready pitchers in this class and could have gone as many as ten picks earlier, but it didn’t work out that way. The Braves take him here and add him to a farm system that is already heavy on pitching prospects. Still, he might just be too good to pass on for a team without obvious needs.

32. New York Yankees- RHP Phil Bickford (High School-CA)

With three first round picks, the Yankees double up on high school arms. Like Krook, Bickford comes from California and has a big time upside. Bickford is a righty, while Krook is a lefty. The Yankees’ farm system is very hitter heavy right now so pitching figures to be the focus of their draft as they somehow ended up with three picks in the first round this year.

33. New York Yankees- RHP Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts)

I thought about a hitter here, but I really wanted to get Gonzalez into the first round and the Yankees have a big enough need for young pitchers that this does make sense. Like Wahl who went 31st, Gonzalez could have gone ten picks earlier, but it just didn’t work out that way for him. The Yankees gladly add him to the fold here.

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Minnesota Vikings Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Fred Evans

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Uncategorized, Vikings

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Minnesota Vikings, that player is defensive tackle Fred Evans.

Evans played the 4th fewest snaps among Minnesota defensive tackles last season, behind Kevin Williams, LeTroy Guion, and Christian Ballard, serving as a run-down specialist and a pure backup at right defensive tackle behind Guion. This position is also known as the 4-3 nose tackle spot and in Minnesota’s defense it was the spot occupied for so many years by Pat Williams. With Williams now gone, the Vikings are searching for his replacement and have given Guion the first crack at doing so. Ballard served as a situational pass rusher on sub packages. Kevin Williams is firmly entrenched as a starter at left defensive tackle, the under tackle spot. And the Vikings just used a first round pick on defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd.

So how could Evans still have a breakout year? Well, Floyd is more of a threat to Ballard’s role immediately and projects more as a long term solution at the under tackle spot than someone who is going to play the nose in the base packages. Playing the run is not his strength and his role as a rookie will probably be as a situational pass rusher, coming in for the base nose tackle on passing downs. So the only one Evans will be battling with for a starting job is Guion and according to Head Coach Leslie Frazier, he’ll be given every chance to win that job.

If Evans shows himself in camp to be the player he was last year, he should win that job. Evans finished the regular season as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle and no one played as few snaps as him, 342, and had a higher grade. That doesn’t even take into account his best performance of the season, in the Vikings’ playoff game against the Packers, when he had 5 tackles for offensive failure (within 4 yards of the original LOS on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd and 4th down). Post-season included, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle.

His biggest strength was playing the run, which will be important as he attempts to win that right defensive tackle job. Only 2 players had a higher rating against the run on ProFootballFocus than him, with post-season included, as he had 20 tackles for offensive failure on the season, also known as a stop. With 17 of these coming on 166 running plays, he had a run stop percentage of 10.2%, good for 5th in the NFL among eligible defensive tackles. He wasn’t too shabby as a pass rusher as well, as he graded out just about average with 2 sacks, 2 hits, and 4 hurries on 188 pass rush snaps.

Guion, meanwhile, had just 18 stops all season, despite playing 539 snaps. With 14 of these coming on 235 run snaps, his run stop percentage was just 6.0%, closer to the bottom of the league, 53th out of 85 eligible. He graded out dead last among 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus in the regular season, 76th out of 79 eligible with post-season included. His biggest weakness was the run, which is not a good thing when you’re trying to win a starting nose tackle job against someone who was one of the best in the league in that regard last season. I expect Evans to win this starting job and have a great year as a starter in the base packages, with Floyd spelling him in sub packages and being eased in. Guion, meanwhile, is not a lock for a roster spot, owed a non-guaranteed 2.45 million.

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Atlanta Falcons Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Peter Konz

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Falcons, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Atlanta Falcons, that player is center Peter Konz.

Konz was one of the better center prospects I’ve scouted, a 3 year starter at the offensive line factory that is the University of Wisconsin and a big time road grader at 6-5 315, with the balance and technique to excel inside despite his height. Konz also had 33 inch arms and help up in pass protection one on one when asked. Centers rarely go in the 1st round, but Konz had a chance to. An ankle injury sustained late in the season dropped him into the 2nd round, where the Falcons took him 53rd overall, which I thought was an excellent pick. Despite giving up their 1st rounder the year before in the Julio Jones trade, I still thought they got a 1st round talent out of the draft.

The original plan was for Konz to be a reserve as a rookie at center behind veteran Todd McClure, but 6 weeks into the season, right guard Garrett Reynolds went down for the year with a back injury and Konz was inserted at right guard, an unnatural position. Konz struggled mightily in 12 starts, 10 in the regular season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 76th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in the regular season, allowing 5 sacks, 7 hits, and 13 hurries, while struggling as a run blocker.

However, with Reynolds set to return at right guard and center Todd McClure retiring, Konz is expected to be the starter at center this year, where he’s a much more natural fit and he could easily have a breakout year and emerge as one of the better centers in the league. He has the talent to and I wouldn’t put much stock into his rough first season in the league.

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San Diego Chargers Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Danario Alexander

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Chargers, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the San Diego Chargers, that player is wide receiver Danario Alexander.

Alexander had a very productive career at the University of Missouri, especially in his senior year, when he caught 113 passes for 1781 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, in spite of that, Alexander went undrafted in 2010 due to serious concerns about his left knee, which had been operated on 4 times. Alexander spent 2 years in St. Louis after making the practice squad as an undrafted free agent and he had some big games, including 5 games of 72 yards or more.

However, he struggled with injuries to his knee and hamstring and played just 18 games in those 2 seasons, catching a total of 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 touchdowns. After he had a 5th knee surgery before the 2012 season, Alexander was waived/injured by the Rams and became a free agent. Despite his natural ability at 6-5 217, his collegiate production, and the fact that he flashed on several occasions in St. Louis, he lasted as a free agent until October 18th, when he was signed by the receiver desperate Chargers.

With the Chargers, he began playing serious snaps by week 9 and became a starter by week 10. In 9 games with the team, he caught 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 66 catches for 1170 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. Those 658 yards on 314 routes run equaled 2.10 yards per route run, 17th in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps he did. He caught those 37 passes for 658 yards and 7 touchdowns on 54 targets and only 2 passes intended for him were intercepted, good for a QB rating when thrown to of 134.1, best in the NFL among receivers who played as many snaps as he did. For comparison, Philip Rivers’ overall QB rating was 88.6

This off-season, he was slapped with an original round tender, which means anyone could have signed him to an offer sheet and not had to surrender draft pick compensation (the Chargers had right of to match any deal, however). Though several teams reportedly considered doing so, none did, likely scared off by his history of knee injuries and the commitment that comes with a multi-year deal. That’s also probably why San Diego didn’t slap a higher tender on him. His history of knee injuries still is the huge elephant in the room with him. They could creep up at any time.

However, if they don’t, Alexander could have a real chance at having a 1000 yard season and being the Chargers’ #1 receiver. He’s plenty talented and doesn’t even turn 25 until August. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a ton of question marks at wide receiver. Malcom Floyd is a marginal talent who turns 32 this season. Vincent Brown is coming off a lost season with a broken ankle and is still very unproven. Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem combined for 37 catches in the first year of multi-year deals last off-season and might not both make the roster. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, is just a 3rd round rookie. Alexander has the most talent by far. He’ll just need to stay healthy.

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Jacksonville Jaguars Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Cecil Shorts

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Jaguars, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, that player is wide receiver Cecil Shorts.

When your quarterbacks are Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert, it’s tough to put up big time numbers as a receiver, but 2nd year receiver Cecil Shorts did a good job of that in 2012 as the 2011 4th round pick caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns. He caught his 55 passes on 101 targets, which is a low catch rate of 54.5% and he did drop 9 passes, but he was a big time big play receiver, averaging 17.8 yards per attempt and quarterbacks threw 7 touchdowns to 4 interceptions when throwing to him.

That’s good for a 94.5 QB rating when thrown to, 15th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, which is absurd considering his quarterbacks were Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, who combined for a 74.7 QB rating on the season. How did he manage that? Well, he ranked 10th among eligible wide receivers averaging 6.7 yards after catch per catch. Only Percy Harvin caught more passes and averaged a higher yards after catch per catch than Shorts.

Even more impressive, he did this despite missing 2 games with injuries and not playing more than 50% of his team’s snaps until the team’s 6th game of the season. He ran 423 routes on the season, giving him 2.31 yards per route run, 8th in the NFL behind Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, and AJ Green. In his 9 starts, he caught 47 passes for 774 yards and 5 touchdowns, which extrapolates to 84 catches for 1386 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games.

On top of that, it didn’t seem to matter to him which crappy quarterback was throwing to him. In his 3 starts with Blaine Gabbert, he caught 12 passes for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns. With Chad Henne, he caught 35 passes for 532 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s good news because the Jaguars could go with either Chad Henne or Blaine Gabbert this year and will probably have both start at least one game.

In 2013, Shorts will be in his 3rd year in the league, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and he’ll be the starter from week 1. Provided he stays healthy, he should make 16 starts. Justin Blackmon is suspended for the first 4 games of the season, so Shorts will see plenty of targets. He’ll also see more attention from defenses and he won’t seek up on anyone this time around, but he should be fine. He probably won’t reach those aforementioned extrapolated stats, but he has a very good chance to be Jacksonville’s first 1000 yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005.

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New York Jets Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Chris Ivory

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Jets, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Jets, that player is running back Chris Ivory.

When Mike Tannenbaum was fired this off-season and John Idzik was hired as the new GM of the New York Jets, he had a tough job ahead of him. The Jets had 8 starters set to hit free agency and no cap space to re-sign them or to sign replacements. They had to cut 3 more starters just to get under the cap (Calvin Pace was eventually re-signed) and Darrelle Revis was in a situation where he needed to be traded. And this was on top of having one of the worst quarterback situations in the league and coming off a 6-10 season.

The Jets had two 1st round picks after the Revis trade and rookies Dee Milliner and Sheldon Richardson will both be rookie starters. They brought in 3 veterans, Dawan Landry, Stephen Peterman, and Willie Colon, to plug holes cheap, which were nice signings. However, I think Idzik’s best move so far with the Jets has been trading for New Orleans’ Chris Ivory and making him their starting running back. Ivory cost just a 4th round pick and a cheap 3 year, 6 million dollar deal, but he has the ability to be a real breakout star and give them a strong running game once more.

Ivory was a real find for the Saints as an undrafted free agent from Tiffin in 2009. He made the roster as a rookie and though he was never high on the depth chart behind Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles, when injuries struck, and they frequently did, he always made the most of his opportunity. In 3 seasons with the Saints, Ivory rushed for 1307 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 256 carries, an impressive 5.0 YPC.

Now going to the Jets, he’ll finally get a chance to be atop the depth chart. The Jets have 5 running backs on their roster currently. Bilal Powell has a 3.7 career YPC. Joe McKnight is not expected to stick on the roster and briefly was a cornerback last year. John Griffin is just roster filler. Mike Goodson actually got a more lucrative contract than Ivory’s extension, but he’s not an every down back was recently arrested for DUI and gun charges. Ivory was named the starter even before Goodson’s arrest, but with Goodson’s roster spot now in doubt, it looks very possible Ivory could be a 250+ carry feature back.

We’ve seen what Ivory has done in 250 carries in his career and it would be huge if he could do that again. He probably won’t do quite that as he’ll be running against stacked boxes more often with Mark Sanchez/Geno Smith under center than he was with Drew Brees, but the Jets actually have a solid run blocking offensively line, so they’ll give him help. The other concern is if he can remain effective when getting 15-20 carries per game for an extended period of time, something he’s never done. He’s also had injury issues. However, he could still be a big time breakout player.

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Kansas City Chiefs Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Rodney Hudson

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Chiefs, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Kansas City Chiefs, that player is center Rodney Hudson.

Hudson was a 2nd round pick of the Chiefs in 2011. He was as accomplished as a collegiate offensive lineman could be, starting all 4 years, making the All-ACC team in his final 3 years, and the All-American in his final 2 years, doing so unanimously in his senior year. However, the NFL doesn’t have a lot of sub 300 pounds offensive lineman and Hudson weighed in at 299 at The Combine, while not posting a particularly fast 40 time at 5.31. In spite of 27 reps of 225, there were still major questions about his ability to anchor.

Hudson barely played as a rookie, serving as a reserve guard. However, with long-time NFL veteran Casey Wiegmann retiring, a hole opened up at center for the Chiefs and Hudson was moved there for the 2012 season. The move made sense. Hudson’s lack of strength and athleticism wouldn’t be as big of an issue at center and his intelligence and technique would be big time assets.

Hudson started out very well in his first season at center, only allowing 1 pressure in his first 2 and ½ games, but he went down with a broken leg during the middle of that 3rd game, costing him his season. In spite of the limited playing time, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 23rd ranked center, grading out above average as a run and pass blocker. Only Dallas’ Phil Costa played fewer snaps than him and graded out better than him. Provided he can stay healthy (injuries have never been an issue for him before last year), Hudson could certainly pick up where he left off and emerge as one of the better centers in the game.

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Dallas Cowboys Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Bruce Carter

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Cowboys, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Dallas Cowboys, that player is outside linebacker Bruce Carter.

When the Cowboys selected Bruce Carter in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft, they were taking a real chance. Carter had first round ability, with legitimate 4.4-4.5 speed at 6-1 241 and great weight room strength, throwing up 25 reps of 225 at The Combine, but was widely expected to go on day 2 because he had torn his ACL in the prior November. Not only would he likely not contribute as a rookie, he was a real question mark going forward. He couldn’t run the 40 at The Combine and it was a question whether he’d ever be able to regain that same explosiveness.

The Cowboys didn’t wait long into the 2nd day to take him, taking him 40th overall with the 8th pick of the 2nd round, doing so despite having 3 established middle linebackers ahead of him, Sean Lee, Keith Brooking, and Bradie James and also despite running a 3-4 scheme that Carter didn’t seem to be a natural fit for. He’d be playing 3-4 middle linebacker, a position more focused on size and strength, coming up to plug the run, rather than speed, instincts, and athleticism, making plays in space. His sideline to sideline speed would not be best utilized in that scheme.

Carter predictably barely played as a rookie, but in his 2nd year in the league in 2012, with Brooking and James gone, Carter beat out free agent signee Dan Connor, widely perceived as the favorite for the job after landing a multiyear deal in free agency. Carter eventually became an every down linebacker at middle linebacker after injuries knocked out Sean Lee for the season, but once again, injuries found Carter when he dislocated his elbow on Thanksgiving and had to be put on IR. Still, despite only playing 625 snaps and despite playing out of position, Carter graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 15th ranked inside linebacker out of 62 eligible, with only 3 players ranked higher than him that played fewer snaps than him.

Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Carter is healthy again, but more importantly the scheme has changed. Rob Ryan and his 3-4 defense are gone and Monte Kiffin and his Tampa 2 scheme are in. Carter will be moving outside to weakside linebacker, where he will play every down in the role that Derrick Brooks thrived in with the Buccaneers for so many years under Kiffin. Carter’s skill set fits that role perfectly as his natural athleticism, instincts, and range will be allowed to shine. Provided he stays healthy, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Carter emerged as one of the best outside linebackers in the NFL this season.

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Houston Texans Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Whitney Mercilus

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Texans, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Houston Texans, that player is rush linebacker Whitney Mercilus.

Mercilus was a first round pick, 26th overall, of the Houston Texans in 2012. I gave him a top-10 grade, calling him the best pure pass rusher in the draft class, comparing him to Aldon Smith, and praising his work ethic. Mercilus comes from humble beginnings in more ways than one. He grew up as the son of Haitian immigrants, but he was also just a 3-star recruit in the 2008 draft class, a rarity among 1st round picks.

Mercilus did well to bulk up from 225 to the 260 range while in college and after recording just 2 sacks in his first 2 seasons as a backup, Mercilus earned his way to a starting job in 2011 and made the most of it. He led the country in sacks, with 16, and also had 22.5 tackles for loss and 9 forced fumbles. He showed a wide variety of pass rush moves and never took a play off. At The Combine, he flashed excellent athleticism for his size, running a 4.68 at 6-4 261 and putting up 27 reps of 225.

However, as a rookie, he struggled. He managed just 6 sacks, 1 hit, and 15 hurries, including playoffs, on 327 pass rush snaps, a mediocre 6.7% pass rush rate, splitting snaps with Brooks Reed opposite Connor Barwin. He was ProFootballFocus’ 29th rated 3-4 outside linebacker out of 34 eligible and his pass rush productivity was 26th out of 32 eligible.

That being said, plenty of players struggle as rookies and then go on to have excellent NFL careers. Mercilus still doesn’t turn 23 until July and he still has plenty of natural ability and upside. With Connor Barwin gone, he’ll be an every down player opposite Brooks Reed with rookies Sam Montgomery and Trevardo Williams sprinkled in as depth. He’s expected to line up almost exclusively at right outside linebacker, the primary pass rushing position in Wade Phillips’ scheme (the DeMarcus Ware, Connor Barwin role), rather than moving around the formation, as he did as a rookie. This could very well help him, especially since he played almost entirely on the right side in college at Illinois. He’ll have every opportunity to shine and I expect him to breakout.

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New York Giants Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Brandon Myers

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Breakout Players, Giants, Uncategorized

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Giants, that player is tight end Brandon Myers.

The Raiders had one of the least talented rosters in the NFL last season thanks to a decade of poor drafting and recent salary cap hell. One of several positions without a clear proven starter for the Raiders last year was tight end. When 4th year tight end Brandon Myers, a 2009 6th round pick, won the starting job, he was described as a decent blocker and little else and for good reason.

He had just 32 career catches in his 3 year career so far, including just 7 in 5 starts in place of an injured Kevin Boss the year before. He wasn’t a premium draft pick, going in the 6th round and he didn’t have special athleticism. After not being invited to The Combine, he ran a 4.79 40 at 6-3 250 at his Pro Day in 2009, with a 31 inch vertical and 17 reps of 225.

However, Myers really surprised as a pass catcher, catching 79 passes for 804 yards and 4 touchdowns, leading the team in receiving ahead of bigger names like Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore. He did this on just 101 targets, a very impressive 78% catch rate, and he was sure handed, dropping just 6 passes. He ranked 8thamong eligible tight ends in terms of yards per route run.

While he managed just 10.2 yards per catch, and 3.6 yards after catch per catch, both towards the bottom of the league, he did break 8 tackles and, because of his high catch rate, the Raiders actually averaged a very impressive 8.0 YPA throwing to Myers last year, over a full yard over the 6.8 YPA Raider quarterbacks averaged on the season. Overall, Raider quarterbacks had a 100.7 QB rating when throwing to Myers, well above their overall 82.5 rating.

Surprisingly, the one area Myers really struggled with his blocking, both pass and run blocking, which was supposed to be the only thing he was good at. No tight end graded out worse as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus than Myers, which actually led to him being the 2nd worst rated overall tight end, despite his great play in the passing game. However, it was revealed after the season he played most of last year with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, which really effected his blocking. With an off-season to heal, he should do a better job of blocking in 2013.

Myers hit the open market this off-season and did not command a big deal, signing for just 2.25 million over 1 year in New York with the Giants. One of the things that is noteworthy is that Giants tight end coach the legendary Mike Pope requires his tight ends to be great blockers to get on the field so the fact that they signed him and are listing him as a starter is a good sign for his ability to bounce back as a blocker.

One other thing about New York and tight ends that is noteworthy is that Giants tight ends always seem to be productive in the passing game, regardless of who they are. Mike Pope is a big part of the reason for this, as is the offensive system and Eli Manning’s tendency to throw to the tight end. The Giants took Jeremy Shockey in the 1st round in 2002 and turned him into one of the league’s best tight ends.

Injuries didn’t allow him to play a full 16 game set in 6 seasons with the Giants, but he averaged 70 catches for 796 yards and 5 touchdowns per 16 games, back before the days of tight ends really putting up huge numbers. For his efforts, he was named to the Pro-Bowl 4 times in 6 seasons. However, when he got hurt down the stretch in their eventual Super Bowl winning 2007 season, a no name rookie named Kevin Boss took over and did well enough for the Giants to win without Shockey.

Boss ended up driving Shockey out of town that off-season, as the Giants got a 2nd and 5th round pick for him from the Saints, a good haul. The Saints, however, would not get what they paid for, as Shockey last just 3 years in New Orleans, averaging 59 catches for 615 yards and 3 touchdowns per 16 games despite Drew Brees throwing him the ball. He spent a final nondescript season in Carolina in 2011 before being forced to retire (technically he hasn’t retired, but if you’ve been out of the league for at least a year, you’re essentially retired) at age 31, due to lack of interest in his services around the league.

Boss, meanwhile, did a solid job filling in for Shockey, averaging 39 catches for 527 yards and 6 touchdowns per 16 games in 3 years as a starter, despite being just a 5th round pick in 2007. He earned himself a multiyear deal in Oakland and lasted just one year before getting cut. He then went to Kansas City, where the same thing happened and now he remains a free agent at just age 29, after 31 catches in the last 2 years combined.

Boss was replaced by Jake Ballard, a similar player, a blocker first that put up surprising pass catching numbers in 2011, catching 38 passes for 604 yards and 4 touchdowns. After he tore his ACL in the Giants’ Super Bowl victory, the Giants waived him and replaced him with Martellus Bennett. Bennett was a former 2nd round pick of the Cowboys, but largely a blocker first who had caught just 85 passes for 848 yards and 4 touchdowns in 4 seasons. Bennett nearly matched those numbers in his one year in New York, catching 55 passes for 626 yards and 5 touchdowns, before signing a multiyear deal with the Bears, only to be replaced by Myers on the cheap.

Myers now comes to New York as the most NFL proven tight end they’ve brought to the team in at least over a decade and he should be able to continue to get his in the passing game as the 3rd option after Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. Assuming he also bounces back as a blocker, by the end of the season, we may be able to call Myers one of the most complete all-around tight ends in the NFL. Not bad for a 6th round pick with limited athleticism.

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