Month: March 2014

Washington Redskins sign DE Jason Hatcher

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jason Hatcher, now going into his age 32 season, has been a late bloomer in the NFL, but he’s a versatile defensive lineman who can really get after the quarterback. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011 as a talented reserve on 428 snaps and then he became a starter in 2012. In 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end and in 2013 he was their 8th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle.

He’ll be going back to a 3-4 in Washington and will serve as a much needed difference maker on that defense. He’ll play on a defensive line with Barry Cofield and fellow ex-Cowboy Stephen Bowen, serve as a needed 3rd starter and probably leading the line in snaps played. 27.5 million over 4 years is a very solid deal for him, though his age is a slight concern. That being said, only 10.5 million of this contract is guaranteed and nothing after the 1st season. This could end up being a 2-year, 13.5 million dollar contract if he declines quickly and they’d endure a 4.5 million dollar cap hit (with 2 million in cap savings) by cutting then. Having that kind of out is helpful when dealing with an older player.

Grade: A-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign G Zane Beadles

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Every off-season it’s the same thing. Bad teams make bad moves and good teams make good moves. I understand that the Jaguars have to pay a premium to free agents to get them to sign with them, but this is still too much money for the inconsistent Beadles. The 6 million dollars in annual value on this deal is the 10th highest in the NFL. He’s not a top-10 guard.

Beadles has been a starter since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, but he’s been massively inconsistent. As a rookie in 2010, he was very solid as a guard, but struggled mightily as a tackle. In 2012, he had his best season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked guard. However, in 2011 he was 73rd out of 78 eligible and in 2013 he was 51st out of 81 eligible. All in all, he’s about an average starting guard, but in no way does he deserve 6 million yearly, not even from a guard needy team that needs to pay a premium to sign free agents.

Grade: C

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Miami Dolphins sign CB Cortland Finnegan

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I rarely give F’s for signings, but this one is an F. Actually, it’s more like a WTF. Cortland Finnegan was a train wreck last season with the Rams. He only played 367 snaps in 7 games for a variety of reasons, including injuries and poor performance, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked cornerback. He allowed 26 of 34 completion for 353 yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating against of 136.0 that was 3rd worst among eligible cornerbacks. He also committed 6 penalties. There’s a reason why the Rams cut him 2 years into an absurd 5-year, 50 million dollar deal.

That was the worst season of his career, but he’s going into his age 30 season so he’s probably not getting any better any time soon. He was great in his contract year with the Titans in 2011, which is why he got such a big deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback. However, that’s the only year in the last 4 years that he’s been even remotely good. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked cornerback in 2010 and ranked 86th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks in 2012. In what world did he deserve 11 million over 2 years? Who else was paying him that? I would have thought he’d be looking at deals close to the minimum, but I guess not.

Grade: F

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New York Giants sign G Geoff Schwartz

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Geoff Schwartz is one of the most underrated players in football. He played well in 2010 with the Panthers, in 11 games at guard and 5 games at tackle. His composite grade would have been 5th among guard and 13th among tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, he missed the entire 2011 season with injury and was relegated to reserve work in Minnesota in 2012, impressing in limited action. In 2013 with the Chiefs, he played 549 snaps at left guard, right guard, and right tackle and his composite grade would have been 7th among guards and 20th among tackles, despite the limited playing time.

Schwartz is only going into his age 28 season and will be a full-time starter in New York with the Giants, who were desperate on the offensive line, particularly at guard, where Schwartz figures to play. Now that he’ll be a full-time starter, Schwartz has the ability to emerge as a top-10 or even a top-5 guard in the NFL. At 16.8 million over 4 years with 6.2 million guaranteed, that’s a steal. The Giants are lucky the rest of the NFL hasn’t caught up with how good Schwartz is because this was one of the best moves of the off-season.

Grade: A

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Seattle Seahawks sign DT Tony McDaniel

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

This is very similar to the deal that the Buccaneers gave Clinton McDonald. Like McDonald, Tony McDaniel was a little thought of defensive tackle before this season, playing 590 snaps in 2011 and 2012 combined, but broke out this season with the Seahawks (though McDaniel came from Miami, while McDonald moved up Seattle’s depth chart). McDaniel is a couple of years older, but I actually like this deal better than McDonald’s for 4 reasons.

The first is that it’s less money. While McDonald got 12 million over 4 years with 4.75 million guaranteed, McDaniel got 5.75 million over 2 years with just the 1.25 million dollar signing bonus guaranteed. That’s less money per year, fewer years, and less guaranteed money, which offsets the minor age factor (they’re both under 30 anyway). The second is that McDaniel stays in Seattle, while McDonald goes to Tampa Bay. There’s no guarantee that McDonald will be as good outside of Seattle’s system. We don’t have to find out with McDaniel.

Three, McDaniel was actually the better of the two players last season. They’re different players, as McDonald is a sub package player who specializes in getting to the quarterback, while McDaniel is a base player who specializes in stuffing the run. However, McDaniel was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle (including 4th against the run), while McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle (including 16th as a pass rusher).

The final reason is that McDaniel has more of a history of success than McDonald. Neither has much, but while McDonald literally came out of nowhere, playing 794 snaps from 2009-2012 after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009 and getting cut as a final cut, McDaniel had some decent years as a reserve in Miami. For instance, in 2010 he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end on 426 snaps. Both deals were good deals, but all in all, I like McDaniel’s deal better. This was a great signing for a Seattle team that needed to keep McDaniel after losing McDonald.

Grade: A

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DT Clinton McDonald

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Clinton McDonald was a 7th round pick in 2009 and played just 794 snaps in his career before this season. He was actually cut by the Seahawks in final cuts and re-signed in mid-September. Given that, it might seem weird that McDonald is getting a 12 million dollar deal over 4 years from the Buccaneers now here in March, but McDonald had a very solid season as one of the cogs on a Seattle defensive line that helped them win the Super Bowl.

McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle, excelling as a pass rusher and grading out above average overall. He’s still a one year wonder and you don’t know how he’ll do outside of Seattle’s system, but 3 million dollars yearly, with 4.75 million guaranteed, is not very much money. That’s a small enough gamble for the defensive tackle needy Buccaneers to bet that McDonald will continue to be a solid contributor at defensive tackle. The price is right here.

Grade: A-

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New York Jets sign QB Michael Vick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Michael Vick has been on the decline in every season since 2010, which makes sense considering how reliant he is on his legs and how many injuries he’s suffered in the past. He put up decent numbers in 7 games last season, completing 54.6% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries. However, a closer examination shows that much of that was Chip Kelly’s system making him look better than he was, much like it did with Nick Foles.

In 2012, he completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 332 yards and a touchdown on 62 carries. That’s probably more accurate and now he’s two years older, going into his age 34 season. He’s played all 16 games once in 10 seasons in the NFL and has missed 22 games over the past 4 seasons.

That being said, he might still be a top-32 quarterback in the NFL and the money is right (5 million over 1 year) when you compare it to deals that Josh McCown (2 years, 10 million), Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) have gotten over the last two off-seasons. I think Vick is better than all 5 of those quarterbacks. He’s probably also better than Geno Smith, with whom he is being brought in to compete. Either he’ll win the starting job or Geno Smith will beat him out and be a better quarterback for it. It’s not a huge signing for the Jets or anything, but it was the right one at the right money.

Grade: A-

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Pittsburgh Steelers sign S Mike Mitchell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Steelers, Uncategorized

Mike Mitchell was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2009 based on his freakish athleticism (4.39 40 at 6-1 216), but he never really put it together in Oakland, playing an average of 394 snaps per season, maxing out at 508 snaps, and grading out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his last 3 seasons. He only played 334 snaps in 2012, his contract year, as a reserve and was forced to settle for a one year deal in Carolina worth about the veteran’s minimum.

He turned out to be a brilliant signing for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman as he became a 14-game starter (920 total snaps) at safety, a huge position of need for the Panthers, flashing often and showing his athleticism. He wasn’t spectacular, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked safety, slightly above average, and was a key part of a surprisingly good Carolina team, led by a stifling defense.

Now he gets a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal from the Steelers. He fills a position of need for the Steelers, slotting it at safety next to Troy Polamalu, in place of the departed Ryan Clark, but this is the definition of buying high. 12 months ago no one wanted Mitchell and now after one year he’s worth 5 million yearly? It’s not like he was incredible last year and much of his strong play was as a result of a dominant Carolina front in front of him, which, by the way, won’t be following him to Pittsburgh. Buy high deals like this rarely work out.

The only reason this isn’t a terrible deal is because there’s barely any guaranteed money, as the Steelers guaranteed just 6 million, which is his 1st year’s salary. If Mitchell doesn’t work out, the Steelers can get out of this deal after one year and have it be just a 1-year, 6 million dollar contract with the cap hit split over 2014 and 2015 (2.2 million in 2014, 3.8 million in 2015). That’s still too much for Mitchell and there’s no guarantee the Steelers are humble enough to admit their mistake if it comes to it, but that is worth mentioning. The small guarantee saves this deal.

Grade: C+

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Indianapolis Colts sign WR Hakeem Nicks

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Colts, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Hakeem Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He ranked 8th in yards per route run in both 2009 and 2010, doing so on just 344 routes run as a rookie and then developing into a starter with 453 routes run in 2010. In 2011, he “only” ranked 22nd in yards per route run, doing so 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team.

However, since that 2011 season in which he caught 76 passes for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns, he hasn’t gone over 1000 yards. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others. He’s ranked 41st and 33rd in yards per route run over the past 2 seasons respectively, combining for just 109 catches for 1588 yards and 3 touchdowns over that time period. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7th worst among eligible wide receivers.

All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he was well deserving of this one year prove it deal worth 3.6 million dollars (with another 400K available through per game incentives). This is a much better value than the 5.5 million the Eagles gave to Jeremy Maclin, who is coming off of a completely lost season with a torn ACL and who has never had a 1000 yard season in his career. Nicks will slot in as the 3rd receiver in Indianapolis behind TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne and provide valuable insurance for Wayne, a 36-year-old coming off of a torn ACL. He’ll be an obvious upgrade over Darrius Heyward-Bey, who got a similar deal last off-season (1-year, 2.5 million). This is a much better value than that.

Grade: A

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New England Patriots re-sign WR Julian Edelman

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Patriots, Uncategorized

I thought that Julian Edelman should have been higher on the Patriots’ off-season to do list than Aqib Talib. Talib is an overrated player who can’t stay healthy and was sure to be overpaid on the open market. A cornerback trio of Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, and Kyle Arrington would have been passable (though the signings of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner certainly help), while a Patriots’ receiving corps without Julian Edelman would have been a huge question mark.

Brady said it himself after the end of last season that Edelman was his only reliable target last year. They couldn’t let him get away. Edelman caught 105 passes for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and was even better in the 2nd half of the season once he and Brady perfected their chemistry, catching 57 passes for 592 yards and 4 touchdowns in the final 8 games. He may have been replaceable, like Patriots’ slot receivers before him, but I highly doubt Brady and the Patriots wanted to have to try to make another Edelman on the fly next season like they tried to make a new Welker on the fly in 2013 before Edelman stepped up. It’s just so much easier to keep him, especially with the receiving corps in flux.

He’s still a one year wonder and his injury history is concerning, which is why it’s great they were able to keep him for just 17 million over 4 years (compare that to 28.5 million over 5 years for Danny Amendola last off-season). You can also compare that to the 12 million over 2 years that Wes Welker got from the Broncos last off-season. Edelman did a great job imitating Welker last season, especially down the stretch, and he’s 5 years younger, only going into his age 28 season. The Patriots made a mistake giving Amendola so much money, but they made the right move last off-season letting Welker walk because of Edelman and now they’ve made the right move by locking him up long-term.

The common narrative is that Edelman was just a target hog last season, but that’s not the whole story. His 146 targets were 10th in the NFL, but his catch rate of 71.9% was tied for 4th best in the NFL, higher than Welker (67.0%) with the Broncos last year and Welker with the Patriots in 2012 (71.1%). He might not have the same numbers next year with fewer targets, if Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy and Aaron Dobson can step up, but he was still too valuable to let go. Credit the Patriots for getting him at the right value after letting him test the open market.

Grade: A

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