Month: March 2014

Oakland Raiders sign DE LaMarr Woodley

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Like the Justin Tuck deal, the money is about right here for LaMarr Woodley. He was overpaid in Pittsburgh and he isn’t the same player he was in 2010, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and he hasn’t played more than 641 snaps in any of the last 3 seasons, missing 14 games combined over that time period. However, he’s still graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, including a 10th place finish this past season. He’s not an every down player anymore and he’s going into his age 30 season, but he can still be a very solid player on about 600 snaps for the next couple of seasons, which is the length of this deal (2 year, 12 million). There is some concern that he hasn’t played in a pure 4-3 since college, but it probably won’t be a huge issue.

All that being said, like with the Justin Tuck deal, I really don’t understand what direction the Raiders are going in this off-season. They’re using all their cap space to sign players who are 30+ (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, Donald Penn) to replace talented young players that they let leave (Jared Veldheer, LaMarr Houston, Vance Walker, Pat Sims). They haven’t overpaid anyone and I really like the one year deal that they signed Tarell Brown to, but the Raiders need to be focusing on a two-three year rebuild and this isn’t really the way to do it.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders sign DE Justin Tuck

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

The price here is right for Justin Tuck, 11 million over 2 seasons. Tuck was a dominant defensive lineman from 2008-2010, grading out 4th, 6th, and 9th among 4-3 defensive ends, but he was only an average starter in 2011 and 2012. However, he had a great contract year in 2013, grading out 7th as Pro Football Focus ranked 4-3 defensive end. He’s going into his age 31 season so he’s probably on the decline, but I still believe he can be an average or above average starter over the next couple seasons and this deal is only for a couple of seasons.

That being said, I think it’s kind of weird the way the Raiders are approaching the off-season. I loved the cheap one year signing of Tarell Brown, but other than that, their approach has been weird. They let LaMarr Houston and Jared Veldheer, young, talented players in their prime of their career, leave on reasonable deals when they had so much cap room and then they used that cap room to sign over 30 veterans who won’t be around anymore at any point in time when the Raiders could even hope to be good.

They also didn’t re-sign Vance Walker and have made no effort to bring back Pat Sims, two underrated players who were part of the reason why the Raiders were even passable defensively last year. 5.5 million yearly to Justin Tuck isn’t a bad deal and neither is 6 million yearly to LaMarr Woodley (which I’ll get into next), but wouldn’t it make more sense to give Houston 7 million yearly (or 8 million yearly if that’s what it would have taken for him to stay in Oakland for their rebuild)?

Grade: B

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Dallas Cowboys sign DT Henry Melton

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Cowboys desperately needed defensive line help this off-season, especially defensive tackle help. After losing Jason Hatcher to the Redskins, there might not have been a single team needier for any single position than the Cowboys were for a defensive tackle. Things were so desperate for the Cowboys at defensive tackle this season that Nick Hayden not only started at defensive tackle, but lead all Cowboy defensive linemen in snaps played, this coming after he played a combined 22 snaps in 2011 and 2012. He predictably struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle. Their depth was awful as well. Hatcher was their only even functional defensive tackle.

However, the Cowboys are in one of the worst cap situations in the NFL. To even get to the point where they can sign their draft picks and depth, they had to push a significant amount of cap hit to future years (when they’ll be in the same situation) and get arguably their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware. When I saw they signed Henry Melton, I knew it could be a great fit, considering his history with defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli and the Cowboys’ need at defensive tackle, but I was worried they added another big contract to their cap, which would make their team even more top heavy and make it even harder for them to get under the cap in the future.

Fortunately, they were able to give Melton a very team friendly deal. It’s essentially a one-year deal with an option for the final 3 seasons. The first season is essentially a one-year prove it deal for a player who missed most of last season with a torn ACL, after being franchise tagged by the Bears in the off-season. He’ll make 2.25 million guaranteed worth up to 5 million in incentives (in per game roster bonuses and statistical milestones).

The Cowboys will then have an option for 2015-2017 at a combined 24 million (7.5 million in 2015 and 2016 and 9 million in 2017). This is a very team and cap friendly team for a Cowboys team that desperately needed one. Melton, meanwhile, will serve as an adequate replacement for Jason Hatcher if healthy, though they still need another defensive tackle or two (perhaps through the draft). Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 7th ranked defensive tackle in 2012, both seasons under Rod Marinelli. The torn ACL he suffered last season is a concern, but he’s still young (going into his age 28 season) and doesn’t have much of a history of injury. This was a very good move for the Cowboys in their current situation.

Grade: A

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Green Bay Packers re-sign CB Sam Shields

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

A lot of cornerbacks have been overpaid this off-season, Aqib Talib (57 million over 6 years), Vontae Davis (39 million over 4 years), and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (35 million over 5 years). However, I’m shocked that Sam Shields was also overpaid (39 million over 4 years) for two reasons. One, the Packers usually do a great job of not overpaying guys in free agency as Ted Thompson is one of the best in the business. Two, unlike the aforementioned three cornerbacks, Shields didn’t have his best season in his contract year.

He’s definitely flashed in the past, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked cornerback this past season. I would have thought they could have gotten him cheaper as a result. I’ve held off on grading this deal until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal to the deals received by Brent Grimes (32 million over 4 years) and Alterraun Verner (26.5 million over 4 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Sam Shields has definitely flashed in the past, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback in 2012 and dominating down the stretch as an undrafted rookie in 2010 on the Packers’ Super Bowl run. However, he also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in 2011 and then there was last year. He’s also never played a full 16 game season, missing 11 games in 4 seasons, including 6 games missed in his dominant 2012 season. That’s a very inconsistent history.

There’s no way he deserves to be the NFL’s 3rd highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary (9.75 million). The only reason this deal isn’t a D or worse in terms of my grade is because they only guaranteed 15 million and can cut him after the first season if he struggles, though at a cap loss of 250K. However, even a 1-year, 15 million dollar deal is too much for Shields and I highly doubt they’ll be bold enough to cut their losses after this season if the situation presents itself.

Grade: C-

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Minnesota Vikings re-sign DE Everson Griffen

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

This move was made right before the start of free agency and it was a real head scratcher. However, I’ve held off on grading it until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal (42.5 million over 5 years) to the deals received by LaMarr Houston (35 million over 5 years), Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) and Michael Johnson (43.75 million over 5 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Michael Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. LaMarr Houston was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 9th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Michael Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Meanwhile, Everson Griffen has one career start. It’s not quite as bad as that sounds because he’s been a talented reserve and he has upside.

However, those supporting this deal seem to be overestimating his upside. Sure, he has 14 sacks over the past 2 seasons despite being a reserve, but he’s actually played as much as some starters in terms of pass rush snaps with 423 pass rush snaps played in 2012 and 449 pass rush snaps played in 2013. All of a sudden, he doesn’t seem as efficient as he once did. He only ranked 29th out of 62 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012 and only ranked 21st out of 52 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013.

He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. With Jared Allen likely gone, I said in the Vikings’ off-season preview that I expected him to re-sign with the Vikings on a multi-year deal that paid him like a starting caliber player because I knew he had upside. I expected him to get something like 25 million over 5 years. That being said, the notion that he will suddenly become a dominant defensive lineman because he’s now a starter is absurd. And even if he somehow does, I don’t know who else would have paid him 42.5 million over 5 years with 20 million dollars guaranteed. They overpaid him by about 17.5 million dollars over 5 years.

Grade: F

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Chicago Bears sign DE Willie Young

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bears, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This was one of the underrated moves of the off-season and the Bears are having an underrated off-season, re-signing their own guys at reasonable rates (Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Jay Cutler, Roberto Garza, Matt Slauson) and overhauling the defensive end position, which was much needed. They got a fair amount of cap space by cutting Julius Peppers and replaced him with an upgrade in LaMarr Houston. Now they upgraded the other defensive end position, signing Willie Young to replace Corey Wootton, and they got a great deal. They will only pay him 9 million over 3 years, a very fair value for an above average starting defensive end.

Willie Young, a 2010 7th round pick, was a valuable reserve from 2010-2012, playing 618 snaps total. His best season as a reserve was 2011. He only played 259 snaps, but if he were eligible for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, he would have ranked 14th among 4-3 defensive ends despite his very limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps and graded out as highly as he did. He wasn’t nearly as good in 2012, as he actually graded out below average, but he got a chance to start in 2013 and made the most of it, playing 801 snaps and grading out as Pro Football Focus 16th ranked 4-3 defensive ends.

He played the run well and rushed the passer well, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and 48 quarterback hurries. Those hurries were 3rd most at the position. He’s still somewhat of a one year wonder, given that he was only a one-year starter, but he showed enough as a reserve that I’m fairly confident he can continue being a solid starter. At 9 million over 3 years and no guaranteed money after 3.95 million in the first year, this is absolutely worth the risk.

Grade: A

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Chicago Bears sign DE LaMarr Houston

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bears, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Bears had a desperate need for defensive line help after they cut Julius Peppers. With Corey Wootton and Henry Melton set to hit free agency, the Bears needed new starters at 3 of 4 defensive line positions, in addition to fixing the complete lack of depth that showed last season. LaMarr Houston was one of the best defensive linemen available this off-season. A 2010 2nd round pick, Houston has been a well above average 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons, grading out 19th, 9th, and 11th on Pro Football Focus among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively.

Considering Michael Johnson got 43.75 million over 5 years with 24 million guaranteed, the 35 million over 5 years with 17 million guaranteed that Houston got is very reasonable. This is certainly better than the 42.5 million over 5 years with 20 million guaranteed that the Vikings gave to the unproven Everson Griffin. Houston will line up at Julius Peppers’ old spot and move inside to defensive tackles on passing downs, presumably with Shea McClellin moving down from linebacker to be a nickel rusher. This was a good get at a reasonable price.

Grade: A-

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Oakland Raiders sign CB Tarell Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Tarell Brown has been an above average starter for the 49ers in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out at 13th overall in 2012, including 4th in pure coverage grade. However, the worst of his 3 seasons as a starter was this season as he “only” graded out 32nd and missed 3 games with a rib injury that limited him upon his return. As a result, the cap strapped 49ers only offered him 10 million over 3 years.

Apparently the rest of his market wasn’t much better as he decided it would be best for him to take a one-year deal to rehab his value and give free agency another shot, even if it was for only 3.5 million and even if it was with a terrible team like the Raiders. The Raiders are obviously the beneficiary. Normally bad teams have to pay a premium to get players to sign with them, but they were able to get an above average starter at a position of need at a very cheap rate.

Grade: A

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New York Giants sign CB Walter Thurmond

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Walter Thurmond had has a significant history of injuries, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked cornerback last season on just 480 snaps. He dominated on the slot, ranking 7th in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks, allowing 0.85 yards per coverage snap on the slot on 229 snaps. For that reason, I was worried someone would overpay him as an above average starting outside cornerback. He’s still an injury risk. There was still no guarantee that he could be as dominant outside. And there’s still no guarantee that he’d be the same play outside of Seattle’s system, without Seattle’s pass rush in front of him, and without the rest of Seattle’s secondary around him.

That being said, the Giants were really wise to give him just a one-year deal, worth just 3.5 million. Worst case scenario, they’re not out of a lot of money. Best case scenario, the Giants have a great value on a high level cornerback for a year. He’ll man the slot in between Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara. The Giants now have a very solid secondary all of a sudden. They’re playing free agency very well, waiting for the off-season to come to them (with the exception of overvaluing Jon Beason).

Grade: A

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New York Giants sign CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a very interesting history. A 2008 1st round pick, DRC made the Pro-Bowl in 2009 and looked on his way towards cementing his place as one of the league’s best cornerbacks, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback that year. However, 2010 was the exact opposite for him, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ dead last ranked cornerback, which turned him into a throw-in to Philadelphia in the Kevin Kolb trade.

His tenure in Philadelphia wasn’t good, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 86th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible in 2011 and 98th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible in 2012 as part of a massively disappointing Philadelphia secondary. That earned him a one-year prove it deal in Denver, worth about 4 million dollars, but he did prove it, grading out 5th among cornerbacks. However, he made some questionable comments before the Super Bowl about potentially retiring which, combined with his history of inconsistency and lethargy, raised some eyebrows.

The Broncos offered him a 6-year, 54 million dollar deal, which he turned down. That ended up not being wise as the Broncos gave similar money to Aqib Talib, while DRC was left as the odd man out on a dried up buyer’s market at cornerback. He was left “settling” for a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal with the Giants, with about 14 million guaranteed. He could still coast now that he’s gotten paid, but it’s a lot less money than he could have gotten with the Broncos, so it’s not nearly as bad of a deal as it could have been.

Credit the Giants for once again letting the off-season come to them and getting DRC at a “discounted” rate. Jerry Reese does this kind of thing almost every off-season and he’s been one of the most successful GMs in the NFL in his tenure. They had a need for a shutdown shadow cornerback and DRC could very well become that if he continues playing well. This deal could still backfire, but it could have been a much worse deal if they had signed him to it earlier in the off-season and it’s hardly the worst deal given to a cornerback this off-season. Sam Shields (4 years, 39 million), Vontae Davis (4 years, 39 million), and Aqib Talib (6 years, 57 million) were overpaid by much greater sums.

Grade: B-

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