Month: March 2014

Denver Broncos sign CB Aqib Talib

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I really don’t understand giving top cornerback money to Aqib Talib. This contract is worth 57 million over 6 years, an average annual salary of 9.5 million, making him the 5th highest paid cornerback in the NFL in that regard. I don’t get the appeal. He’s never made it through a full 16 game season, missing 23 games in 6 seasons since being drafted in the 1st round in 2008. He also has a variety of off-the-field problems in his past.

He’s definitely flashed from time-to-time, for instance when he allowed 13 of 33 completion through 6 games last year with the Patriots, picking off 4 passes in the process, but then he suffered another injury, missed 3 games, and wasn’t the same upon return, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 58th ranked cornerback by regular season’s end. And then, he got hurt in the AFC Championship game again, the 2nd time he had done that in as many years.

He’s never graded out higher than 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus and after a rough contract year in 2012, in which he missed 6 games with injury and suspension and got traded for a mid-round pick to New England, he was forced to settle for a one-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. He was better in 2013, but why is he suddenly worth 57 million over 6 years? Who is to say he doesn’t just coast and/or get in trouble again?

The Broncos would have been much better off giving this money to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (who turned down 54 million over 6 years) or waiting for the cornerback market to play out and sign DRC to a deal like the one the Giants were eventually able to get him for (35 million over 5 years). DRC has a history of inconsistency and his retirement comments before the Super Bowl were troubling given his history, so it wouldn’t have been a fantastic deal, but at least DRC has had the top level years that Talib has never had (Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked cornerback in 2009, 5th ranked cornerback in 2013).

This might be the worst contract given to a cornerback this off-season. DRC’s deal with the Giants and especially the contracts given to Alterraun Verner (26.5 million over 4 years) and Brent Grimes (32 million over 4 years) were much better. The only reason this deal isn’t a D or worse in terms of my grade is because they only guaranteed 12 million and can cut him after the first season if he struggles, at a net cap gain of 4 million. However, even a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal is too much for Talib and I highly doubt they’ll be bold enough to cut their losses after this season if the situation presents itself.

Grade: C-

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Indianapolis Colts re-sign CB Vontae Davis

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Colts, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Vontae Davis had a dominant contract year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and 2nd in terms of coverage grade. However, the Colts are overpaying him based on his contract year. He has an inconsistent past and the Colts are paying high, giving him a 36 million dollar deal over 4 years with 20 million dollars guaranteed. That type of move doesn’t usually end well. This contract has an average annual value of 9 million per year, which is the 7th highest average in the NFL among cornerbacks, and the guaranteed money of 20 million is the 5th highest in the NFL among cornerbacks. I don’t think that’s appropriate for him.

Davis was a 1st round pick in 2009 by Miami and he’s never been able to consistently put it all together. He had a solid rookie year on 709 snaps, grading out 26th among cornerbacks, and then looked like one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in 2010, grading out 12th. However, he missed 4 games with injury in 2011, fell down to 37th, and then fell out of favor with the coaching staff when Joe Philbin came in, getting benched in the pre-season for being out of shape. The Dolphins were able to trade him to the Colts for a 2nd and 6th round pick and it looked like the Colts got hosed in that trade, as he missed 6 more games in 2012 and graded out 74th. He put it all together for his contract year, but who is to say he won’t coast and get out of shape again now that he has 20 million guaranteed? This deal could pan out, but it’s a huge risk.

Grade: C+

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New York Giants re-sign MLB Jon Beason

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jon Beason was a decent linebacker, drafted in the 1st round in 2007, but he was massively overpaid going into the contract year of his rookie year on a 5-year, 50 million dollar deal. Making things even worse, he missed 27 of 32 games from 2011-2012 with a variety of injuries. Upon his return in 2013, he had his contract slashed to a one-year deal at the veteran’s minimum, was moved to outside linebacker, and forced into two-down work as a pure base player. He was then benched and sent to the Giants for a late round pick.

The popular narrative is that he rehabbed his value in 12 games with the Giants, back at his natural position at middle linebacker, but that’s not exactly the case. His tackle numbers look good, with 93 tackles in 12 games with the Giants, but people get too caught up in that. He was torched in coverage, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked middle linebacker in terms of coverage grade, and 6th worst ranked middle linebacker overall. He’s simply not the same player he was before the injury and he never graded out higher than 26th among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus even before the injury. The Giants got hosed in those contract negotiations, paying him 16.8 million over 3 years, which is embarrassing because Beason was his own agent.

Grade: D

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Miami Dolphins re-sign CB Brent Grimes

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This year’s cornerback free agent class was hyped as one of the better in recent memory and there are valid arguments for that, but each of the top cornerbacks had their warts (except cap casualty Darrelle Revis). Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Vontae Davis all have been inconsistent in their careers, before putting together strong contract years (usually a red flag). Sam Shields and Aqib Talib were purely overvalued. Alterraun Verner has been Mr. Consistency, grading out as a top-24 cornerback on Pro Football Focus in every season since 2010, making all 64 starts, but maxed out at “just” #11 this season.

Given all that, Brent Grimes was probably the best non-Revis cornerback available this off-season. He has warts too, going into his age 31 season with an injury history, missing a combined 19 games from 2011-2012. That forced him to take a one-year (5.5 million dollar) deal last off-season, before he played in all 16 games this season. However, when healthy, Grimes is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked cornerback in 2010, 3rd ranked in 2011, and 2nd ranked in 2013. He joined Antoine Winfield, Brandon Flowers, and Jason McCourty as the only 4 cornerbacks to grade out in the top-10 in 3 of the last 4 seasons.

His age is a concern, but this deal has no guaranteed money after the first 2 seasons and the signing bonus is only 6 million, so they’d only incur a cap hit of 3 million if they cut him after 2015, which would essentially make this a 2 year, 17 million dollar deal (4 years, 32 million max value). Given the contracts guys like Sam Shields (4 years, 39 million), Vontae Davis (4 years, 39 million), and Aqib Talib (6 years, 57 million) got this off-season, the Dolphins proved to be smart by locking up Grimes before free agency hit. Only the Buccaneers with Alterraun Verner (4 years, 26.5 million) got a better value signing a free agent corner (except Revis) this off-season.

Grade: A-

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Arizona Cardinals sign OT Jared Veldheer

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Cardinals, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

There might not have been a team needier for offensive tackles than the Cardinals, not just because of their lack of talent at the position last year, but because of their lack of talent at the position for many years. It’s been seemingly forever since they had competent offensive tackle play. Bradley Sowell was horrific this season at left tackle, after taking over for Levi Brown, an overpaid offensive tackle who was traded to Pittsburgh. Sowell graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle.

Neither of youngsters Nate Potter nor Bobbie Massie did anything of note this season, playing 80 and 57 snaps respectively this season. Meanwhile, free agent acquisition Eric Winston was awful as well at right tackle, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 69th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible. He’s a free agent this off-season anyway. They needed one, if not two new starters at offensive tackle this off-season. Jared Veldheer is a new starter and a very good one at that.

Veldheer comes cheaper than he would have because of an injury that limited him to 335 snaps in 2013, as the Cardinals get him for 35 million over 5 years when he probably could have commanded upwards of 40 million over 5 years he had not been hurt. It was smart for the Cardinals to pounce on him after an injury plagued year because he doesn’t have much of a history of injury before last season, because it was an upper body injury (torn triceps), which usually doesn’t cause many long-term problems, and because he’s still young, going into his age 27 season.

The 2010 3rd round pick was Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 and 12th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, one of 7 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-17 in both seasons (Joe Thomas, Duane Brown, Eugene Monroe, Tyson Clabo, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). With the exception of Clabo, a right tackle who aged rapidly and struggled in 2013, all of those players make more money yearly than him.

This deal makes Veldheer only the 16th highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL. It’s not quite the Ravens getting Monroe for 37.5 million over 5 years, but it sure is better than Branden Albert, who has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus, getting 46 million over 5 years. Carson Palmer has to be happy about the massive upgrade on his blindside (with the man who protected his blindside in Oakland) and Cardinals fans should be happy about this deal too.

Grade: A-

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign MLB Daryl Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

Daryl Smith was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, but missed most of the 2012 season with injury and was undervalued on the open market, coming from Jacksonville and going into his age 31 season. The Ravens wisely snatched him up and plugged him in at Ray Lewis’ old spot at middle linebacker. Smith proved to be a great addition, providing an upgrade over the late career Lewis, grading out as Pro Football Focus 16th ranked middle linebacker.

He’s now going into his age 32 season, but 4.1 million annually (16.4 million over 4 years) is a very reasonable sum to pay for him and there isn’t a lot of guaranteed money. Ozzie Newsome continues to prove he’s one of the best general managers in the NFL. Teams with rotating doors at GM overpay on big splash moves early in free agency that usually don’t work out, while the top GMs, guys like Ted Thompson (Green Bay), Bill Belichick (New England), Trent Baalke (San Francisco), John Schneider (Seattle), Jerry Reese (NY Giants) and Newsome draft well, re-sign their own guys on reasonable deals, and wait for free agency to come to them.

Grade: A-

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Baltimore Ravens re-sign OT Eugene Monroe

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Ravens, Uncategorized

It’s crazy how much the league seems to undervalue Eugene Monroe. The Ravens were able to steal him from the Jaguars for a mid-round pick this season, probably the equivalent to what they would have gotten in a compensation pick had he just left as a free agent this off-season. Now they lock him up long-term for 37.5 million over 5 years with 19 million guaranteed. Monroe has been a top-16 offensive tackle on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, maxing out as #6 in 2011. He graded out 16th overall this season, but playing even better once he was traded to Baltimore. The Baltimore “version” of Monroe was the #12 offensive tackle this season.

Even if we use his composite grade for the 2013 season, Monroe is still one of just 4 offensive tackles to grade out in the top-16 on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons (Joe Thomas, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth). Despite that kind of consistency, Monroe’s average annual salary of 7.5 million is just 11th in the NFL, behind both Thomas and Whitworth and only slightly ahead of the underpaid Roos, who happens to be going into his age 32 season, while Monroe is going into his age 27 season.

Compare this deal to the one the Dolphins gave Branden Albert, who got 46 million over 5 years. Albert has never graded out higher than 18th on Pro Football Focus and has declined in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out 18th, 25th, and 28th. Albert also is going into his age 30 season and has a history of injury. It looks like Ozzie Newsome, annually one of the league’s best GMs, has done it again, locking up a player at or below market value.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns sign MLB Karlos Dansby

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This was a fairly strong free agent class overall, but the one position where it was weak was at middle linebacker. Middle linebacker in general was a weak position in the NFL last season, as only 16 of 55 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus graded out positively last season. Karlos Dansby was by far the best of the free agent middle linebackers and Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season.

The Browns were one of the league’s neediest teams in terms of the middle linebacker position with D’Qwell Jackson gone and Craig Robertson not resembling a starting caliber middle linebacker (52nd out of 55 eligible last season). They cut Jackson, saving 5.23 million on the cap in doing so, and get Dansby at 24 million over 4 years (6 million dollar annual value). This deal has 14 million guaranteed, but none after the first two years, so it’s essentially a two-year, 14 million dollar deal, which is good in case he begins to decline.

Dansby might never have another year as good as last season again, as he’s going into his age 33 season, and as he had never been a top-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus before this, but he graded out 12th in 2010, 11th in 2011, and 13th in 2012. He’s two years older than Jackson, but he’s still an upgrade at a comparable cost, as Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season. Considering Jackson got 22 million over 4 with the Colts, with 11 million guaranteed, and the Browns had money to spend, this is a solid deal.

Grade: A-

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Cleveland Browns sign RB Ben Tate

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Ben Tate has certainly flashed the ability to be a feature back in the NFL. Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. The running back position is becoming devalued because of their short career spans and injury proneness.

Given all that, credit the Browns for getting him on a cheap short-term deal that will pay him just 7 million dollars over 2 millions. The Browns should still add a solid backup for Tate in case the injury bug comes back, but Tate could be a dominant runner in their zone blocking scheme under Kyle Shanahan. Comparing this deal to some of the other contracts received by running backs this off-season, Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million), the Browns definitely got a very solid deal.

Grade: A-

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New Orleans Saints re-sign OT Zach Strief

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Saints, Uncategorized

These are some contracts given to right tackles over the past 2 off-seasons: Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million), Austin Howard (5 years, 30 million), and Michael Oher (4 years, 20 million). Given that, it’s a great value that Saints got Zach Strief for 20.5 million over 5 years, less average annual value than all of the aforementioned right tackles, and only 8.5 million guaranteed.

Strief is going into his age 31 season, which is part of why they were able to get him so cheap, but there’s no guaranteed money on this deal after the first 2 seasons, so the Saints can cut him fairly pain-free once he begins to decline. With the exception of an injury plagued 2012 season, Strief has been one of the best right tackles in the game over the past 3 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th ranked offensive tackle in 2011 (6th right tackle), and 7th ranked offensive tackle in 2013 (1st right tackle). His age and injury history are a concern, but this is a relatively risk-free deal that could pay big dividends for a Saints team struggling to keep their offensive line together.

Grade: A-

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