Chris Johnson hasn’t been the same player since 2009, his 2000 yard season, though few people are able to repeat that kind of season. He was still an above average starting running back and an incredibly durable one at that, not missing a game since his rookie year in 2008 and totaling over 250 carries in all 6 of his professional seasons. However, last year he significantly declined in efficiency, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, including just 1.8 yards per carry after contact and ranked 3^rd worst in the NFL in elusive rating. He was Pro Football Focus’ 42^nd ranked running back out of 55 eligible. That’s why the Titans cut him, instead of paying him a large salary.

He still was the highest paid running back on the open market this off-season, getting 4 million dollars yearly in this deal, while the 2^nd highest paid running back got 3.5 million dollars yearly. This deal is worth a total of 8 million dollars (with an extra million dollars available through incentive) with 4 million over 1 year guaranteed (3 million dollars signing bonus and 1 million dollars base salary). I don’t think he’s quite worth that much money.

He should become more efficient this season as he’ll see a smaller workload, splitting carries with power back Chris Ivory (probably in the neighborhood of 180-220 carries). He could also be healthier after dealing with significant knee problems all last season. However, he’s also going into his age 29 season with 2014 career touches so he’s not getting any better any time soon. Injury problems could become commonplace for him and there’s already some concern about a potentially arthritic knee. He’s on the decline and this is an overpay.

Grade: C+

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