Month: April 2014

Washington Redskins re-sign CB DeAngelo Hall

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Last off-season, DeAngelo Hall was cut from his large contract by the Redskins and brought back on a cheap one-year deal worth about a million dollars. It made sense. He was going into his age 30 season and had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 4 of his last 5 seasons, dating back to 2008. The only season he graded out above average was 2010. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he was 70th out of 113 eligible. He struggled again in 2013, grading out 84th out of 110 eligible and, now going into his age 31 season, I thought he’d have to settle for another cheap one year deal on the open market.

I guess the Redskins had different idea, giving him this 4-year deal worth 17 million. I’m not entirely sure what he did to deserve that. He was part of the problem for the Redskins in their terrible secondary last season, not part of the solution, and they could have gotten a much better cornerback for this kind of money. The only good part of this deal is that there is just 4.5 million over 1 season guaranteed. The Redskins can cut him after one year, which they probably will after he predictably struggles again next season, and not owe him anything more. This could easily be just a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the cap hit split over 2 seasons. Even that’s about 4 times too much over a year for Hall though.

Grade: C-

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign OT Jason Peters

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jason Peters was Pro Football Focus’ #1 offensive tackle in 2011 and by a large margin, dominating as both a run and pass blocker. However, he tore his Achilles in 2012 and missed the entire season. He came back in 2013 and he wasn’t the same player, but it would have been hard to be as good as he was in 2011 regardless. His season was still very impressive, especially for someone coming off the kind of injury he was coming off of, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked offensive tackle. He was also Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked offensive tackle in 2010 and 21st ranked offensive tackle in 2009.

Peters already had one year worth 9.65 million dollars left on his deal and this deal adds 38.65 million dollars over 4 years to that original deal (with an extra 3 million available through Pro Bowl escalators). This deal is total 48.3 million over 5 years. Giving someone going into his age 32 season with this kind of injury history (he also missed 9 games from 2008-2011 and 2013 was his first 16 game season since before 2008) this kind of money might seem a little excessive, but he’s definitely more than deserving of this money at his best.

The average annual salary of 9.66 million is 6th in the NFL, right ahead of Branden Albert, who got 46 million over 5 years this off-season as the open market’s highest paid offensive tackle. Peters is a significantly better player than Albert. Albert also got 25 million guaranteed, while Peters’ guarantee is just 19.55 million guaranteed, significantly less than Albert’s. It’s even less guaranteed when you take into account that about half of that (9.65 million) is money he would have gotten regardless of this extension as they would not have cut Peters going into his contract year.

It’s really only 9.9 million in new guarantees and the Eagles can get out of this as a 2-year, 19.55 million dollar deal for his age 32 and 33 seasons if they want to. His cash salaries for his non-guaranteed years in 2016, 2017, and 2018 are 8.3 million, 10.2 million, and 10.25 million respectively. They would probably not have been able to re-sign him to a deal with just 9.9 million guaranteed next off-season. This was a low-risk, forward thinking, and team friendly deal for a team to keep their incredibly valuable and incredibly talented blindside protector during what still seem to be his peak years.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Jeremy Maclin

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I like the idea of the Eagles re-signing Jeremy Maclin and cutting DeSean Jackson and his 10.7 million dollar salary. Maclin is actually the more versatile play maker and I think he can be a strong fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, though he’s yet to play for Kelly in a regular season game after tearing his ACL before last season. Injuries have been the problem for Maclin throughout his career as the 2009 1st round pick has missed 21 games in 5 years in his career, including all of last season and has only once played all 16 games.

Injuries are a big part of the reason why he’s never had a 1000 yard season in his career despite frequently flashing top level ability. He’s come close with a 70/964/10 line in 2010 and a 63/859/5 line in 13 games in 2011, but he’s never crossed that threshold. I think he has a good chance to do so this year, should he stay healthy. When healthy, he’s a better receiver than Riley Cooper and I think he and a rookie receiver can replace DeSean Jackson for less money.

I like the idea of giving Jeremy Maclin a one year prove it deal and I think he could break out on this deal in 2014, but 5.5 million dollars is a lot of money on a prove it deal for an injury prone receiver who has never had more than 1000 yards in a season. He could definitely prove to be worth it, but I think they probably could have gotten him cheaper. Compare this to the 3.975 million dollars that Hakeem Nicks got from the Colts on a prove it deal and this seems like a small overpay. That’s slightly nitpicking though and he could definitely prove to be worth this.

Grade: A-

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Riley Cooper

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This deal is part of the reason why the Eagles moved on from DeSean Jackson. They think they can replace DeSean Jackson with a healthy Jeremy Maclin and a rookie along with a bigger role for Riley Cooper. Cooper is getting 22.5 million over 5 years, though with only 9 million over 2 years guaranteed. I have a hard time seeing him getting that on the open market. A year ago, Cooper was the Eagles 4th receiver and had 46 catches for 679 catches and 5 touchdowns in his career in 3 years since being drafted in the 5th round by the Eagles in 2010.

He struggled to start the 2013 season as well, catching 8 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in his first 5 games in a starting role, before breaking out down the stretch. Once Nick Foles came under center, it was a big boost to Cooper’s stats as the Eagles’ passing offense broke out and Foles liked to throw to Cooper more often than Michael Vick did. Cooper caught 45 passes for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 12 games including playoffs. The Eagles are paying a lot of money for a system player who, as of early October, was a non-factor as a receiver in the league.

I like the Eagles’ general direction at wide receiver this off-season, re-signing Jeremy Maclin, cutting DeSean Jackson and his large salary, and replacing him with a combination of a hopefully healthy Maclin and a rookie, but this is too much money for Cooper. This is the definition of buying high. The other angle here is that Cooper may have struggled to get as much money as he otherwise would have on the open market because of the comments he made last off-season and the potential locker room issues that signing him could cause. The Eagles’ locker room generally seemed to forgive and accept him, but it’s not clear if the rest of the league would feel the same way.

Grade: C

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade WR Mike Williams to Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Trade for Bills: Mike Williams is on a big contract, but only 1.8 million of the deal is left guaranteed so the Bills are essentially getting Williams on a 1-year, 1.8 million dollar deal with “options” for 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 at 6.8 million, 7.2 million, 7.5 million, and 8.75 million respectively. He’s unlikely to be back with the team in 2015 at that salary as the Bills will likely cut him or force him to restructure his deal following this season.

Considering Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him, it’s a worthwhile gamble with little downside and potentially high upside. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9), grading out well above average on Pro Football Focus in each season. However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns, grading out well below average, and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury.

After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings. He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together.

All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. This move will allow the Bills to likely cut Steve Johnson and save 5.675 million dollars in cash and immediately 75K in cap space and a combined 5.675 million dollars in cap space over the next two seasons. They are likely getting a comparable player for about a third of the price. In that scenario, they’d go into 2014 with Mike Williams, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, and Marquise Goodwin as their top receivers with the option to add another receiver through the draft.

The only concern is that Williams has a good enough season that he tricks the Bills into keeping him for 2015 at 6.8 million and then he coasts again. There are also minor concerns about Williams polluting the locker room or eventually doing something bad enough that he gets suspended. It’s still a worthwhile gamble with high upside and high potential dividends at the price of a 6th round pick.

Grade: A

Trade for Buccaneers: I guess the Buccaneers were just done with Williams after everything. The new regime coming in under Lovie Smith seems to be instituting a no tolerance policy for this type of behavior. Cutting him wasn’t a good option as they’d have to pay him 1.8 million dollars for this season either way, so I guess credit them for getting out of that and getting a 6th round pick. However, I would have just kept him at that salary and dealt with him after the season. This could easily become a case of one team’s trash becoming another team’s treasure in the Bills’ favor.

Grade: C

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Washington Redskins sign WR DeSean Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Eagles cut Jackson because he was owed 10.7 million dollars and they didn’t want to pay him that when they already had 5+ million yearly committed to Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position (not because of racism). There are also reports of disrespectful behavior on Jackson’s part and he even confirmed that he was late to some meetings.

Whether or not any potential gang affiliation played a role is unknown, but comments from some people who have known Jackson since his childhood, coupled with the heavy interest Jackson was met with on the open market suggests that any affiliations were blown out of proportion by shoddy journalism. It really seems like, plain and simple, the Eagles didn’t want to pay Jackson 10.7 million dollars and think they can replace his production with a combination of a rookie and a now healthy Jeremy Maclin to go with Riley Cooper.

That makes a lot of sense. Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked wide receiver last year, but that’s not consistent with his history as he was actually about an average to slightly above average wide receiver on Pro Football Focus from 2008-2012. It’s possible that he was just a product of Chip Kelly’s offense last season. Even in his 1000 yard seasons in 2009 and 2010, Jackson was only catching about half of his targets as an inconsistent, one trick pony deep threat. Couple that with the fact that he can cause headaches to coaching staffs from time to time and I think the Eagles’ decision to move on from him makes a lot of sense, regardless of any gang affiliation.

The Redskins are getting him at a cheaper rate than the Eagles would have, giving him a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal with 16 million guaranteed, but they still might be overpaying for a system receiver. On top of that, the Redskins didn’t have a lot of cap space coming into this move, part of why they had to add a 4th “dummy year” to this deal to spread out the cap hit over 4 years instead of 3 years. This will be an expensive deal for the Redskins over the next few years and I don’t know if this is the right area for them to be allocating their cap space. They already have a #1 receiver in Pierre Garcon, but they have a large amount of holes on the defensive side of the balls, an amount that will grow next off-season if this deal makes the Redskins unable to retain Brian Orakpo long-term.

Jackson will make 8 million dollars per year in every season of this deal, including a non-guaranteed 8 million in the third year in 2016. This year, 5 million of that is the signing bonus so his cap hit will actually only be 4.25 million (3 million in salary, 1.25 million in prorated signing bonus). However, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2015 and if he’s cut after the 2015 season, he’ll have a cap number of 2.5 million in 2016. If he stays on the roster in 2016, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2016 and 1.25 million in 2017, his “dummy year.” It’s a lot to commit to a wide receiver when you already have a #1 receiver.

Grade: B-

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