QB Tom Brady (New England)
Tom Brady arguably had the worst statistical season of his career last season, completing 60.5% of his passes (lowest since 2003), for an average of 6.92 YPA (lowest since 2003), 25 touchdowns (lowest in a full season since 2006), and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 87.3. That QB rating was the 4th worst of his career and the lowest since 2003, when the NFL’s rules didn’t favor the quarterback nearly as much as they do now. Those numbers were all significant declines from 2010-2012, when he completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 109 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, a QB rating of 104.6. Part of the issue was Brady’s lack of supporting cast offensively though, which should be much better this season, with Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola all likely to be healthier than they were last season. He’s going into his age 37 season, which is a concern, but he’s not a bad mid-tier QB1 at all.
4525 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns (309 pts standard)
RB Stevan Ridley (New England)
Stevan Ridley had a breakout year in 2012 as the 2011 3rd round pick rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC). He was off to an equally good start in the 2013 season, rushing for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns on 131 carries (4.29 YPC) through 9 games. However, he lost a fumble in 3 straight weeks (4 total on the season) and got benched against Denver. The rest of the way, he had just 66 carries for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns (4.24 YPC) in 7 games, including playoffs. LeGarrette Blount is gone, leaving 4th round rookie James White as the only real threat to take away significant carries. Ridley will be on a short leash, but he has some nice buy-low value on one of the better offenses in the league.
220 carries for 970 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 12 catches for 80 yards (165 pts standard)
RB Shane Vereen (New England)
Vereen won’t be a threat for real carries, even if Ridley is benched for fumbling again. However, he’s a real threat in the passing game, catching 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets on 200 routes run, an average of 2.14 yards per route run that was 2nd only to Darren Sproles among running backs. He did that all in 8 games and could have a big season this year as a receiver.
80 carries for 380 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 75 catches for 600 yards (134 pts standard)
RB James White (New England)
White is only a 4th round rookie, but he’s the primary backup for both the early down role behind Ridley (who fumbles a lot) and Shane Vereen (who missed 8 games with injury last season). He’s not great at anything, but he’s drawn a lot of praise this off-season as a well-rounded back who can step into either role. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished 2nd on the team in carries and catches by a running back. There’s late round upside appeal with him.
120 carries for 540 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 22 catches for 160 yards (94 pts standard)
WR Julian Edelman (New England)
Julian Edelman caught 105 passes for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns last season and was even better in the 2nd half of the season, catching 57 passes for 592 yards and 4 touchdowns, once he and Brady mastered their chemistry. He also caught 16 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets in two post-season games. However, he’s a one-year wonder who had 69 catches in the previous 4 seasons, while missing a combined 16 games over those 4 seasons. The Patriots also will have the ability to spread it out more this season with Brandon LaFell coming in and Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola all presumably going to be healthier than they were last season.
83 catches for 880 yards and 5 touchdowns (118 pts standard)
WR Danny Amendola (New England)
Another guy who should have better health this season is Danny Amendola. Amendola caught just 54 passes for 633 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, which obviously was a disappointment for the Patriots. He only missed 4 games, but he was limited all season with a groin injury. When healthy, he can be a great wide receiver. He averaged 2.04 yards per route run with the Rams in 2012 despite having Sam Bradford at quarterback. The issue is he’s never been able to stay healthy. He’s missed a combined 24 games over the past 3 seasons, not excluding the other games he’s been limited with injury. However, if I had to bet on it, I’d bet on him being more productive this season than last. He’s once again having a strong off-season (like he did last off-season) and he seems to be over that groin issue.
64 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)
WR Brandon LaFell (New England)
He caught 167 passes for 2385 yards and 13 touchdowns in 4 seasons, proving to be a marginal receiver at best, averaging 1.36 yards per route run, including just 1.18 yards per route run last season. He’s a solid blocker and a big body at 6-2 211, but he lacks explosiveness. There’s some talk they could line him up at tight end on occasions, the way they did with Aaron Hernandez and Brady has a history of getting the most out of subpar athletes before so he’s worth monitoring, but I don’t expect huge numbers from him.
41 catches for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns (78 pts standard)
WR Aaron Dobson (New England)
There was some optimism for a breakout year for Dobson in 2014. The 2013 2nd round pick caught 37 passes for 519 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The average first round pick rookie wide receiver averages 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Dobson was able to post comparable numbers despite missing 4 games and despite being a 2nd round pick. It’s a testament to Dobson’s athleticism and upside and Tom Brady’s ability to get the most out of his receivers. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run. He had a serious issue with drops, dropping 9 passes to those 37 catches and only caught 37 of 71 targets (52.1%), but he definitely flashed. However, he’s missed most of the off-season with a foot problem. Even if he plays all 16 games, he could be behind the 8-ball and behind Brandon LaFell on the depth chart all season.
42 catches for 640 yards and 4 touchdowns (88 pts standard)
TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)
When Gronk returns, how close to 100% he is, and if he gets re-injured are all serious questions going into this season, but Gronkowski has caught 184 passes for 2709 yards and 32 touchdowns over his last 34 games, which is 87 catches for 1275 yards and 15 touchdowns over 16 games. Even 75-80% of that production makes him worth an early round pick in a thin year for tight ends. He’s currently reportedly 50/50 for week 1. He’s my pick to lead this bunch in yards and touchdowns.
71 catches for 1020 yards and 10 touchdowns (162 pts standard)
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