QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

Manuel looked like a reach as a rookie. Ignore the injuries (several lower body injuries limited him to 706 snaps in 10 games), Manuel really struggled on the field completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and even struggled, efficiency wise, as a runner, even though that’s supposed to be an added bonus he offers teams. He rushed for just 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries, a pathetic 3.51 YPC. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but so far his career is not off to a great start. He’s a QB2 with upside only because of his running ability and his first round draft status.

3500 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (233 pts standard)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

CJ Spiller, the 9th overall pick in 2010, was supposed to have a huge breakout year last year as the feature back in Buffalo’s run heavy offense. He was very impressive in 2012, averaging 6.01 yards per carry on 207 carries, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 43 catches for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Spiller only played 394 snaps last season for two reasons. The first reason was injury. He only missed 1 game with injury, but he was limited in others. He had single digit carries in 3 games and showed serious inconsistency, with 5 games in which he had 23 rushing yards or fewer. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry, rushing for 933 yards and 2 touchdowns on 202 carries, but inconsistency was a serious problem. He also only had 33 catches for 185 yards.

That leads into the second reason why he played so few snaps, which was his struggles on passing downs. He wasn’t awful as a pass catcher, but he was as a pass protector. Spiller could have better health in 2014, which will help him as a rusher and help him play more snaps. He could also bounce back as a pass catcher. The pass protection is the bigger issue though. 300+ touches are his for the taking in this run heavy offense and he could be incredibly efficient, but there’s no guarantee he takes them.

230 carries for 1060 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 300 yards (172 pts standard)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Jackson has defied father time before, doing so just last year, rushing for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns on 206 attempts, while adding 47 catches for 387 yards and another touchdown, and it helps that he got a late start to his career, with just 1394 touches in his career. However, he’s still very old for a running back, going into his age 33 season, and he’s a year removed from a 2-year stretch in which he missed 10 games and a 2012 season in which he rushed for 3.80 YPC on 115 carries. He’s the #2 back on a run heavy offense behind a shaky starter, but his arrow is trending down and Spiller’s is trending up. Jackson could face pressure from Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon for the #2 role as well.

160 carries for 660 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (130 pts standard)

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. They’re always over-drafted because of their name and that’s true of Sammy Watkins as well. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Watkins also has to deal with poor quarterback play. I don’t expect an AJ Green or Julio Jones type season from Watkins as a rookie.

45 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

WR Robert Woods (Buffalo)

Woods was a 2nd round pick in 2013 and caught 40 passes for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns. He averaged 1.21 yards per route run on 484 routes run and caught 40 of 81 targets, 49.4%. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, grading out 79th, but he could be better in his 2nd year in the league.

42 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

WR Mike Williams (Buffalo)

Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9). However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury. After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings.

He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together. All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. His quarterback play could hold him back though.

35 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Scott Chandler was the Bills’ leading receiver last season, catching 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, the Bills can spread it around more this season with Watkins and Williams coming in and Woods going into his 2nd year in the league. Chandler isn’t going to see a ton of targets on this run heavy offense and he doesn’t have good quarterback play. He could score more than twice this season, but he’s only a bye week filler at tight end either way and he doesn’t have much upside.

51 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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