RB Arian Foster (Houston)

Foster was off to a strong start to last season, rushing for 542 yards and a touchdown on 121 carries, an average of 4.48 YPC. He finished 23rd among eligible running backs last season despite playing just 334 snaps, before going down with injury. Foster was breaking down before the injury though, largely as a result of the 1115 touches he had in the previous 3 seasons. His YPC went down from 4.94 YPC in 2010 to 4.40 YPC in 2011 to 4.06 YPC in 2012. Now coming off of a significant back injury and going into his age 28 season, he could continue breaking down. At the same time, he could also continue playing well, like he was last season, now that’s he’s had some time to rest and rebuild. My bet would be that he continues breaking down, after seeing him deal with more injuries in training camp, but there’s bounce back potential here.

240 carries for 1010 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 38 catches for 260 yards (169 pts standard)

WR Andre Johnson (Houston)

Johnson missed valuable time with a new quarterback and head coach thanks to an off-season holdout. He’s also going into his age 33 season, which makes that holdout even more concerning. Johnson’s 12,661 yards are 17th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Johnson isn’t quite there right now, but he’s at the point in his career where is age is becoming a concern. Couple that with poor quarterback play and the fact that he’s never been a big touchdown guy and you have someone who you should let be someone else’s problem in the early part of the draft.

88 catches for 1210 yards and 6 touchdowns (157 pts standard)

WR DeAndre Hopkins (Houston)

Any production Johnson loses this season should be the gain of 2^nd year wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who was the 26th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Hopkins was working as the #1 receiver in Johnson’s absence, becoming better acquainted with the new offensive system and the new quarterback. Hopkins had a decent rookie year, catching 52 passes for 802 yards and 2 touchdowns. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 lines respectively as rookies, both inferior to Hopkins’ rookie year. Wide receivers usually take a year or so to get adjusted to the NFL and Hopkins could make a leap in his 2nd year in the league in 2014. Reports on him this off-season have been very promising.

59 catches for 930 yards and 5 touchdowns (123 pts standard)

TE Garrett Graham (Houston)

With the injury prone and aging Owen Daniels gone, Garrett Graham will once again be the #1 tight end. He rose to this role last season after Daniels went down for the season week 5. He caught caught 49 passes for 545 yards and 5 touchdowns last season and I expect more of the same from him this season. He’s a weak TE2.

48 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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