RB Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville)

The Jaguars signed former Vikings backup running back Toby Gerhart to be their starting running back and the Jaguars are talking him up as a 300+ carry three-down back. The 2010 2nd round pick clearly has some talent, averaging 4.73 YPC on 276 carries (1305 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns) in 4 years in the league. However, he has limited action, with an average of 69 carries per season. He has played the majority of his snaps in passing situations, meaning, when he does carry the ball, he’s doing it against a defensive front that’s not expecting the run.

The 6-0 231 pounder has caught 77 passes in his career, which is solid, but unspectacular. He has some three down potential, but he’s a serious projection to that role. The Jaguars are expected to pound the rock with Gerhart to take the pressure off of their passing game, though that plan is best executed when leading, which the Jaguars probably won’t be doing a lot of this season. He’ll be an RB2 on volume, but it’s hard to get excited about him, especially on such a poor offense.

250 carries for 1050 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 300 yards (177 pts standard)

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

With Blackmon likely out for the season, Cecil Shorts will remain as the #1 receiver. Shorts showed potential in 2012, when he caught 55 passes for 979 yards and 7 touchdowns on 423 routes run, an impressive average of 2.31 yards per route run. He seemed poised for a breakout year in 2013 in a bigger role. However, Shorts didn’t live up to expectations and showed himself to pretty much just be a complementary receiver who needs someone opposite him to take the pressure off of him. He caught 66 passes on 117 targets (56.4%) for 777 yards and 3 touchdowns on 472 routes run in 2013, an average of 1.65 yards per route run. He’s also never played more than 14 games in a season in the 3 seasons he’s been in the league, showing a tendency to get injured, and is dealing with hamstring problems in training camp.

58 catches for 750 yards and 4 touchdowns (99 pts standard)

WR Marqise Lee (Jacksonville)

There’s been buzz about Marqise Lee this off-season, but I don’t trust rookie wide receivers, especially not ones who play in passing offenses like Jacksonville’s. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Lee wasn’t even good enough to go in the 2nd round. He should struggle out of the gate.

45 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

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