Month: August 2014

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

In 2012, Luck relied on close victories against bad opponents, rather than his own strong play to win games, as he completed 54.1% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In 2013, he became a much improved quarterback, completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also improved as a runner going from 255 yards and 5 touchdowns on 62 carries in 2012 (4.11 YPA) to 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries in 2013 (5.98 YPA). He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league in 2014.

4150 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard)

RB Trent Richardson (Indianapolis)

Trent Richardson’s struggles last season are well documented. The 3rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Richardson averaged 2.92 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns on 157 carries in 14 games with the Colts. However, he averaged 1.90 yards per carry after contact and broke 47 tackles on 185 touches (he also added 28 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown), giving him the 10th highest elusive rating in the NFL. Richardson rushed for 3.56 yards per carry in 2012, but he ranked 16th in elusive rating, breaking 59 tackles on 318 touches and averaging 2.09 yards per carry after contact. In 2013 with the Browns, he rushed for 3.39 yards per carry. However, he rushed for 2.42 yards after contact and broke 16 tackles on 38 touches.

Much of Richardson’s struggles last season had to do with the Colts’ offensive line and he ran better than his numbers suggested. However, much of it also had to do with Richardson himself. Richardson showed poor vision and burst, which is part of why there were so few “blocked” yards from him to pick up. He wasn’t hitting the hole hard enough or in the right location, two things he’s had issues with since being drafted. On top of that, the Colts offensive line won’t be much better this season. Richardson will know the playbook better and the feature back role is his for the taking, but he’s a risky RB2.

220 carries for 840 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (148 pts standard)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

Bradshaw rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 carries in 3 games last season before going down with a serious neck injury. Bradshaw is now going into his age 28 season, which is like 33 for running backs, with a significant injury history, missing 19 games with various injuries over the past 3 seasons and being limited in many others. However, he’s a tough running back who has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 962 career carries and he’s only behind Trent Richardson on the depth chart. He’s not a bad late round flier, especially for Richardson owners.

100 carries for 400 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 150 yards (73 pts standard)

WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

One positive of Reggie Wayne’s injury last season was that it allowed TY Hilton to have a breakout year as the #1 receiver in his absence. Hilton caught 82 passes for 1083 yards and 5 touchdowns on 533 routes run, an average of 2.03 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked wide receiver. He’s no longer just a deep threat reliant on big plays to make an impact, as he was as a rookie when he caught 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on 479 routes run, an average of 1.80 yards per routes. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers, Hilton could be even better. The 2012 3rd round pick is going into only his age 25 season. He was dominant in the post-season, catching 17 passes for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’ll once again be the Colts’ #1 receiver in 2014.

79 catches for 1120 yards and 7 touchdowns (154 pts standard)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne was the Colts’ most reliable player prior to his injury, not missing a game since his rookie season in 2001 and catching 1006 passes for 13,566 yards and 80 touchdowns in his career. Those 13,566 career yards are 11th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done, but he’s going into his age 36 season now and coming off of that serious injury. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne showed some signs of decline last season and there’s no guarantee that he can be anything close to what the Colts are used to from him this year. Let someone else overdraft him. Hilton is the Colts receiver you want.

58 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

WR Hakeem Nicks (Indianapolis)

The Colts signed Hakeem Nicks to a one-year deal this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run and 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run. In 2011, he “only” averaged 2.08 yards per route run on 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons though thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others.

Nicks averaged 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7th worst among eligible wide receivers. All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he could be an asset for the Colts in the passing game. Off-season reports haven’t been great though and he’ll be the Colts’ #3 receiver as long as Wayne is healthy, so he’s only a late round flier.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Allen missed almost all of last season with a hip injury. That was a bigger loss than most people realize because of how good Allen was as a rookie in 2012. The 2012 3rd round pick only caught 45 passes for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he did so on 64 targets, meaning he caught 70.3% of targets, and on 368 routes run, meaning he averaged 1.42 yards per route run. Where he really excelled was as a blocker, both a run and pass blocker, but he has a great overall game. Essentially a younger version of Heath Miller, Allen could see more pass snaps and more production than he did as a rookie.

44 catches for 550 yards and 5 touchdowns (85 pts standard)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

In Allen’s absence, Coby Fleener led Colts’ tight ends in snaps played with 834. Fleener was a 2nd round pick in 2012, going before Allen, but he’s not nearly as good as Allen, especially as a blocker. Fleener caught 52 passes for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns on 482 routes run, an average of 1.26 yards per route run. He caught 52 of 84 targets (61.9%) and only dropped one pass all season. He’ll slide in as the #2 tight end this season, but there will still be pass catching opportunities.

42 catches for 530 yards and 4 touchdowns (77 pts standard)

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Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bills, Uncategorized

QB EJ Manuel (Buffalo)

Manuel looked like a reach as a rookie. Ignore the injuries (several lower body injuries limited him to 706 snaps in 10 games), Manuel really struggled on the field completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and even struggled, efficiency wise, as a runner, even though that’s supposed to be an added bonus he offers teams. He rushed for just 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 35 carries, a pathetic 3.51 YPC. He could be better in his 2nd year in the league, but so far his career is not off to a great start. He’s a QB2 with upside only because of his running ability and his first round draft status.

3500 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 350 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (233 pts standard)

RB CJ Spiller (Buffalo)

CJ Spiller, the 9th overall pick in 2010, was supposed to have a huge breakout year last year as the feature back in Buffalo’s run heavy offense. He was very impressive in 2012, averaging 6.01 yards per carry on 207 carries, rushing for 1244 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 43 catches for 459 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, Spiller only played 394 snaps last season for two reasons. The first reason was injury. He only missed 1 game with injury, but he was limited in others. He had single digit carries in 3 games and showed serious inconsistency, with 5 games in which he had 23 rushing yards or fewer. He averaged 4.62 yards per carry, rushing for 933 yards and 2 touchdowns on 202 carries, but inconsistency was a serious problem. He also only had 33 catches for 185 yards.

That leads into the second reason why he played so few snaps, which was his struggles on passing downs. He wasn’t awful as a pass catcher, but he was as a pass protector. Spiller could have better health in 2014, which will help him as a rusher and help him play more snaps. He could also bounce back as a pass catcher. The pass protection is the bigger issue though. 300+ touches are his for the taking in this run heavy offense and he could be incredibly efficient, but there’s no guarantee he takes them.

230 carries for 1060 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 300 yards (172 pts standard)

RB Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

Jackson has defied father time before, doing so just last year, rushing for 890 yards and 9 touchdowns on 206 attempts, while adding 47 catches for 387 yards and another touchdown, and it helps that he got a late start to his career, with just 1394 touches in his career. However, he’s still very old for a running back, going into his age 33 season, and he’s a year removed from a 2-year stretch in which he missed 10 games and a 2012 season in which he rushed for 3.80 YPC on 115 carries. He’s the #2 back on a run heavy offense behind a shaky starter, but his arrow is trending down and Spiller’s is trending up. Jackson could face pressure from Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon for the #2 role as well.

160 carries for 660 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (130 pts standard)

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo)

I hate rookie wide receivers in fantasy. They’re always over-drafted because of their name and that’s true of Sammy Watkins as well. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson were top-3 picks and they had 58/780/8 and 48/756/4 respectively as rookies. Watkins also has to deal with poor quarterback play. I don’t expect an AJ Green or Julio Jones type season from Watkins as a rookie.

45 catches for 650 yards and 5 touchdowns (95 pts standard)

WR Robert Woods (Buffalo)

Woods was a 2nd round pick in 2013 and caught 40 passes for 587 yards and 3 touchdowns. He averaged 1.21 yards per route run on 484 routes run and caught 40 of 81 targets, 49.4%. He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, grading out 79th, but he could be better in his 2nd year in the league.

42 catches for 620 yards and 4 touchdowns (86 pts standard)

WR Mike Williams (Buffalo)

Williams has shown he can be a very solid receiver when he has a fire lit under him. Williams had strong years in 2010 (65/964/11) and 2012 (63/996/9). However, in 2011, he had just 65 catches for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns and reportedly displaying a very poor work ethic. In 2013, he had 22 catches for 216 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 6 games before going down with injury. After his injury, he reportedly incurred 200K in fines for a variety of activity detrimental to the team, including missing meetings.

He has a history of this type of behavior, not just in 2011 and 2013, but dating back to his collegiate days at the Syracuse University, when he was kicked off the team, ironically by head coach Doug Marrone, who is now head coach of the Bills. Williams also has a myriad of minor off the field incidents over the past calendar year, which are concerning when you put everything together. All of that makes up why he was traded to the Bills for a 6th round pick, but this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to continue alternating bad years with strong years. His quarterback play could hold him back though.

35 catches for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns (79 pts standard)

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Scott Chandler was the Bills’ leading receiver last season, catching 53 passes for 655 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, the Bills can spread it around more this season with Watkins and Williams coming in and Woods going into his 2nd year in the league. Chandler isn’t going to see a ton of targets on this run heavy offense and he doesn’t have good quarterback play. He could score more than twice this season, but he’s only a bye week filler at tight end either way and he doesn’t have much upside.

51 catches for 590 yards and 4 touchdowns (83 pts standard)

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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a QB rating of 81.7. He also improved on the ground as the mobile Tannehill rushed for 238 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries, an average of 5.95 YPA, after rushing for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on 49 carries as a rookie, an average of 4.31 YPA. He’s not a fantasy football factor yet though. He’s a mid-level QB2.

3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 380 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (258 pts standard)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Lamar Miller is currently the front runner to be the starter for the 2nd straight season. Miller, a 2012 4th round pick, rushed for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns on 177 carries last season, an average of 4.01 yards per carry. In 2 seasons in the league, Miller has averaged 4.21 yards per carry, showing why he fell to the 4th round in the first place. I don’t expect him to be much better this season. The Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno this off-season to compete with him for the starting job, but injuries prevented him from doing that.

210 carries for 880 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (146 pts standard)

RB Knowshon Moreno (Miami)

Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage last season (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but was still available about 3 weeks into free agency. There were reasons for that. As much production as Moreno had last year, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning. Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He’s a talented pass catcher and pass protector, but he’s an average runner at best. He also missed 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons. Now he’s dealing with a bad knee that caused him to miss most of the off-season. He’ll be Miller’s backup and a passing down specialist.

100 carries for 420 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 180 yards (78 pts standard)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace didn’t really pan out in his first year in Miami. Wallace caught a career high 73 passes, but only for 930 yards. His 5 touchdowns were the smallest total of his 5-year career, as was his 12.7 yards per catch. This kind of disappointment shouldn’t be surprising from him. It’s always concerned me when a guy is obviously just chasing money. Wallace held out long into training camp going in 2012, rather than playing out the final year of his rookie deal and, as a result, he had a poor year by his standards in 2012, with 64 catches for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns despite a career high in targets. It was obvious when he went into that holdout that a down year like that was a possibility, but he didn’t seem to care. He was part of the reason why the Steelers missed the playoffs.

And then he chased the money and went to Miami, a team with a young quarterback that had made the playoffs just once in the previous 11 seasons. It was very possible he’d just coast once he had the money and it seems like he did. He’s a one trick pony anyway. He’s got great speed, but he’s still not a good route runner and the NFL has caught on to him over the past few seasons. It’s very possible the 1257 yards he had in his breakout 2010 season will be his career best when his career is all said and done. Some are saying that a new offensive coordinator, with Bill Lazor taking over from Mike Sherman, will help Wallace, but I’m skeptical.

60 catches for 950 yards and 7 touchdowns (137 pts standard)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

With Wallace disappointing last year, Brian Hartline led the Dolphins in receiving yards for the 2nd straight season. He’s put up pretty identical 74/1083/1 and 76/1016/4 seasons over the past 2 seasons, since the 2009 4th round pick broke out in 2012. He’s not an explosive athlete, a touchdown threat, or a deep threat, but he knows how to get open and Tannehill is obviously comfortable throwing to him. There’s a good chance he leads them in receiving for the 3rd straight season. He’s averaged 1.84 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons.

72 catches for 990 yards and 5 touchdowns (129 pts standard)

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Clay broke out last season in his 3rd year in the league. Clay caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns on 458 routes run, an average of 1.62 yards per route run. Clay is still a one year wonder, after playing a combined 744 snaps in his first 2 years in the league and catching a combined 34 passes, but he could have another solid season as a pass catcher this season.

62 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

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New York Jets Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

RB Chris Johnson (NY Jets)

Last year Johnson significantly declined in efficiency, averaging just 3.86 yards per carry, including just 1.84 yards per carry after contact and ranked 3rd worst in the NFL in elusive rating. He should become more efficient this season as he’ll see a smaller workload, splitting carries with power back Chris Ivory (probably in the neighborhood of 180-220 carries). He could also be healthier after dealing with significant knee problems all last season. However, he’s also going into his age 29 season with 2014 career touches so he’s not getting any better any time soon. Injury problems could become commonplace for him and there’s already some concern about a potentially arthritic knee. He’s on the decline and the Jets’ run blocking is significantly worse than the Titans. He shouldn’t be highly drafted anymore.

210 carries for 860 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 35 catches for 280 yards (144 pts standard)

RB Chris Ivory (NY Jets)

Chris Ivory probably won’t have 182 carries like he had last season and he’s useless on passing downs with 5 career catches, but he’ll still play a big role as a between the tackles power back and he’s averaged 4.89 yards per carry for his career, including 4.56 yards per carry last season. He’ll get all the short yardage and goal line looks. The issue is the Jets won’t be around the goal line very often.

160 carries for 720 yards, 5 total touchdowns, 5 catches for 40 yards (106 pts standard)

WR Eric Decker (NY Jets)

Eric Decker is going to get a massive downgrade at the quarterback position going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith/Michael Vick. The last time he played with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning, he averaged just 1.28 yards per route run. That was in 2011 with the combination of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton, which is comparable to what Decker will be dealing with in New York. Decker will also see more of the defense’s attention and, even though he’ll be the #1 receiver, he might not necessarily get more targets, simply because the Jets don’t pass as much as the Broncos do. Decker has had 120 and 135 targets over the past 2 seasons respectively, an average of 127.5 targets per season. That would have been 26.6% of the Jets’ 480 pass attempts last season.

That being said, it’s unfair to suggest that he’ll just go back to his 2011 level of production, when he caught 44 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. While much of his increased production since then is due to the arrival of Peyton Manning, he’s still an improved player over when he was in his 2nd year in the league in 2011, after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. After averaging 86 catches for 1176 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, Decker will probably have between 60-70 catches for 800-900 yards and 6-8 touchdowns next season.

67 catches for 820 yards and 6 touchdowns (118 pts standard)

WR Jeremy Kerley (NY Jets)

Jeremy Kerley was the Jets’ leading receiver last season with 43 catches for 523 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kerley had that production in 12 games and in 2012 he led the team with 56 catches for 827 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games. Kerley has averaged 1.77 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons, despite poor quarterback play. There’s not much upside here though, as Kerley is the #2 receiver on one of the worst passing offenses in the league.

48 catches for 700 yards and 4 touchdowns (94 pts standard)

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New England Patriots Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Patriots, Uncategorized

QB Tom Brady (New England)

Tom Brady arguably had the worst statistical season of his career last season, completing 60.5% of his passes (lowest since 2003), for an average of 6.92 YPA (lowest since 2003), 25 touchdowns (lowest in a full season since 2006), and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 87.3. That QB rating was the 4th worst of his career and the lowest since 2003, when the NFL’s rules didn’t favor the quarterback nearly as much as they do now. Those numbers were all significant declines from 2010-2012, when he completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 109 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions, a QB rating of 104.6. Part of the issue was Brady’s lack of supporting cast offensively though, which should be much better this season, with Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola all likely to be healthier than they were last season. He’s going into his age 37 season, which is a concern, but he’s not a bad mid-tier QB1 at all.

4525 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns (309 pts standard)

RB Stevan Ridley (New England)

Stevan Ridley had a breakout year in 2012 as the 2011 3rd round pick rushed for 1263 yards and 12 touchdowns on 290 carries (4.36 YPC). He was off to an equally good start in the 2013 season, rushing for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns on 131 carries (4.29 YPC) through 9 games. However, he lost a fumble in 3 straight weeks (4 total on the season) and got benched against Denver. The rest of the way, he had just 66 carries for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns (4.24 YPC) in 7 games, including playoffs. LeGarrette Blount is gone, leaving 4th round rookie James White as the only real threat to take away significant carries. Ridley will be on a short leash, but he has some nice buy-low value on one of the better offenses in the league.

220 carries for 970 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 12 catches for 80 yards (165 pts standard)

RB Shane Vereen (New England)

Vereen won’t be a threat for real carries, even if Ridley is benched for fumbling again. However, he’s a real threat in the passing game, catching 47 passes for 427 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets on 200 routes run, an average of 2.14 yards per route run that was 2nd only to Darren Sproles among running backs. He did that all in 8 games and could have a big season this year as a receiver.

80 carries for 380 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 75 catches for 600 yards (134 pts standard)

RB James White (New England)

White is only a 4th round rookie, but he’s the primary backup for both the early down role behind Ridley (who fumbles a lot) and Shane Vereen (who missed 8 games with injury last season). He’s not great at anything, but he’s drawn a lot of praise this off-season as a well-rounded back who can step into either role. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished 2nd on the team in carries and catches by a running back. There’s late round upside appeal with him.

120 carries for 540 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 22 catches for 160 yards (94 pts standard)

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Julian Edelman caught 105 passes for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns last season and was even better in the 2nd half of the season, catching 57 passes for 592 yards and 4 touchdowns, once he and Brady mastered their chemistry. He also caught 16 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets in two post-season games. However, he’s a one-year wonder who had 69 catches in the previous 4 seasons, while missing a combined 16 games over those 4 seasons. The Patriots also will have the ability to spread it out more this season with Brandon LaFell coming in and Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola all presumably going to be healthier than they were last season.

83 catches for 880 yards and 5 touchdowns (118 pts standard)

WR Danny Amendola (New England)

Another guy who should have better health this season is Danny Amendola. Amendola caught just 54 passes for 633 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, which obviously was a disappointment for the Patriots. He only missed 4 games, but he was limited all season with a groin injury. When healthy, he can be a great wide receiver. He averaged 2.04 yards per route run with the Rams in 2012 despite having Sam Bradford at quarterback. The issue is he’s never been able to stay healthy. He’s missed a combined 24 games over the past 3 seasons, not excluding the other games he’s been limited with injury. However, if I had to bet on it, I’d bet on him being more productive this season than last. He’s once again having a strong off-season (like he did last off-season) and he seems to be over that groin issue.

64 catches for 760 yards and 4 touchdowns (100 pts standard)

WR Brandon LaFell (New England)

He caught 167 passes for 2385 yards and 13 touchdowns in 4 seasons, proving to be a marginal receiver at best, averaging 1.36 yards per route run, including just 1.18 yards per route run last season. He’s a solid blocker and a big body at 6-2 211, but he lacks explosiveness. There’s some talk they could line him up at tight end on occasions, the way they did with Aaron Hernandez and Brady has a history of getting the most out of subpar athletes before so he’s worth monitoring, but I don’t expect huge numbers from him.

41 catches for 540 yards and 4 touchdowns (78 pts standard)

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

There was some optimism for a breakout year for Dobson in 2014. The 2013 2nd round pick caught 37 passes for 519 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The average first round pick rookie wide receiver averages 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Dobson was able to post comparable numbers despite missing 4 games and despite being a 2nd round pick. It’s a testament to Dobson’s athleticism and upside and Tom Brady’s ability to get the most out of his receivers. He averaged 1.65 yards per route run. He had a serious issue with drops, dropping 9 passes to those 37 catches and only caught 37 of 71 targets (52.1%), but he definitely flashed. However, he’s missed most of the off-season with a foot problem. Even if he plays all 16 games, he could be behind the 8-ball and behind Brandon LaFell on the depth chart all season.

42 catches for 640 yards and 4 touchdowns (88 pts standard)

TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

When Gronk returns, how close to 100% he is, and if he gets re-injured are all serious questions going into this season, but Gronkowski has caught 184 passes for 2709 yards and 32 touchdowns over his last 34 games, which is 87 catches for 1275 yards and 15 touchdowns over 16 games. Even 75-80% of that production makes him worth an early round pick in a thin year for tight ends. He’s currently reportedly 50/50 for week 1. He’s my pick to lead this bunch in yards and touchdowns.

71 catches for 1020 yards and 10 touchdowns (162 pts standard)

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Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Raiders, Uncategorized

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

McFadden was benched last season for Rashad Jennings mid-season for general incompetence, as he finished the season averaging 3.34 yards per carry. In 2012, he averaged 3.27 yards per carry. He has never been able to live up to his billing as the 4th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and was never able to live up to his huge 2010 season, in which he rushed for 1157 yards and 7 touchdowns on 223 carries (5.19 yards per carry) and added 47 catches for another 501 yards and 3 scores. In 3 seasons since, he’s played a total of 29 games out of 48 and rushed for just 1700 yards and 11 touchdowns on 446 carries (3.81 yards per carry). Even with the big 2010 season, he’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 223 carries or 270 touches. McFadden supporters always seem to make excuses for him, blaming the blocking scheme, and the lack of supporting talent, or injuries, but at a certain point he needs to be written off as a bust. He’ll split carries with Maurice Jones-Drew this season.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Oakland)

Maurice Jones-Drew might not be much better. MJD has seen a steep fall from his 2011 season, in which he led the NFL with 1606 rushing yards. That season, he averaged 4.68 yards per carry on 343 carries, added 43 catches for 374 yards, and scored 11 times. He did all of that on an otherwise abysmal offense during Blaine Gabbert’s rookie year, which makes it all the more impressive. However, after a 1084 touch workload from 2009-2011, MJD cracked in 2012, managing just 84 carries in 6 games, though he did average 4.81 yards per carry.

2013 was arguably worse as he averaged just 3.43 yards per carry on 234 carries, scored just 5 times on 277 touches, and had just 5 touches go for 20+ yards. MJD’s rough 2013 season could be largely the result of the complete lack of offensive talent, and thus running room, around him in Jacksonville. However, he averaged just 2.21 yards after contact, broke just 26 tackles, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst running back in terms of pure running grade. Now going into his age 29 season with 2139 career touches, he’s unlikely to get more explosive going into 2014. He also won’t get much more running room in Oakland. You don’t really want either Oakland running back.

WR Andre Holmes (Oakland)

Andre Holmes is a former undrafted free agent, going undrafted in 2011. However, he had a strong finish to last season, catching 22 passes for 366 yards and a touchdown in his final 5 games. That’s 70 catches for 1171 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games. He’s currently the 73rd receiver off the board on average, while Jones is going 60th and Streater is going 79th. I’d rather have Holmes at his current ADP. He’s worth a late round pick as a high upside sleeper.

52 catches for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns (116 pts standard)

WR Rod Streater (Oakland)

Streater, a 2012 undrafted free agent, has had two solid seasons in the NFL, averaging 1.69 yards per route run, despite poor quarterback play, including 1.80 yards per carry last season. Now heading into his 3rd season in the NFL, he could have his best year yet in terms of efficiency. However, all 3 Oakland wide receivers could cannibalize each other’s production and make it so none of them are startable.

59 catches for 740 yards and 4 touchdowns (98 pts standard)

WR James Jones (Oakland)

The Raiders’ big off-season addition at wide receiver was James Jones. Jones isn’t as good as the 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 would suggest. That rate of 14 touchdowns on 64 catches was unsustainable and he proved that last season when he caught just 3 touchdowns on 59 catches. In his career, he has 37 touchdowns on 310 catches. He’s never put up big numbers despite playing most of his career with either Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre. He’s averaged 1.49 yards per route run in his career, which is pretty mediocre, though his 33 catches for 427 yards and a touchdown in 8 games without Aaron Rodgers last season should give Raiders fans some hope that he can produce with sub-par quarterback play this season. Still, he’s only an average receiver at best and has seen some work with the 2nd team this off-season. There’s not much upside here, as he goes into his age 30 season.

48 catches for 700 yards and 4 touchdowns (94 pts standard)

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Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

QB Alex Smith (Kansas City)

Smith was never really on the fantasy football radar as a starter, but the arrow is trending downward for him. He lost arguably his best 3 offensive linemen this off-season and the receiving corps wasn’t fixed. He’ll have a tougher schedule this season and have more injuries around him, after the Chiefs were the healthiest team in the NFL last season. Dwayne Bowe, Smith’s best wide receiver, is already out for the opener with a suspension. Reach higher with your QB2.

3450 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 250 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (227 pts standard)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

Last season, Charles averaged 4.97 yards per carry on 259 yards, rushing for 1287 yards and 12 touchdowns, in addition leading the team in receiving with 70 catches for 693 yards and 7 touchdowns. In 2012, on a bad team and a year removed from a torn ACL, he averaged 5.29 yards per carry on 285 carries, rushing for 1509 yards and 5 touchdowns, a season that would have gotten much more recognition if the Chiefs had been better and if Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning hadn’t had more impressive comeback seasons. There’s an argument to be made that he’s the best running back in football. His 5.58 career yards per carry are the highest all-time by a modern era running back (1960-today). Jim Brown comes in 2nd and even the legendary Brown averaged “just” 5.22 yards per carry.

Charles will probably never be a 300+ carry back under Andy Reid, but the Chiefs pass to the running back enough to make up for it. There are some concerns here though. I already mentioned the Chiefs’ declining offensive line in front of him. It’s also just very tough to count on your star running back to do everything on offense. The 5-10 200 pound back now has 649 touches in 2 seasons back from that torn ACL and he could be wearing out a little bit going into his age 28 season. Injuries are always a concern with running backs though and there are few safer top-3 running backs than Charles.

250 carries for 1300 yards, 12 total touchdowns, 61 catches for 540 yards (256 pts standard)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

Dwayne Bowe was supposed to have the best season of his career last year. Bowe has always been able to put up big numbers, catching 415 passes for 5728 yards and 39 touchdowns in 88 games in his career before last season, despite playing with the likes of Brodie Croyle, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn at quarterback. However, last year with Smith, arguably the best quarterback he’s ever played with, he managed just 57 passes for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns. He and Smith showed terrible chemistry and Bowe looked out of shape after getting a big off-season contract. There’s been talk that he could bounce back this year, but off-season reports have been mixed, he’s going into his age 30 season, and he’s going to miss the opener with a suspension. I don’t expect much more from him this season.

61 catches for 760 yards and 7 touchdowns (118 pts standard)

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San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

After posting QB ratings of 100+ for 3 straight seasons from 2008-2010, Rivers saw his QB rating drop into the 80s in both 2011 and 2012. There were rumors of injuries and age, going into his age 32 season, was also seen as a factor. Aging, with just 2 years left on his deal, there was talk that the Chargers could draft a quarterback of the future behind Rivers. He wasn’t supposed to improve going into 2013. Instead, Rivers found the fountain of youth in 2013, completing 69.5% of his passes for an average of 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a QB rating of 105.5, tying his career high. The additions of Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and King Dunlap around him really helped, as did the additions of Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt as head coach and offensive coordinator respectively. Whisenhunt is gone and it’ll be hard for Rivers to match the best season of his career at age 33. He’s also a better quarterback in real life than fantasy because the Chargers run a lot, but he’s still a borderline QB1.

4250 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 50 rushing yards and 0 rushing touchdowns (269 pts standard)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

Ryan Mathews will continue being the lead back. Mathews was the 12th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft after the Chargers traded up for him. He had a disappointing first 3 years in the league, struggling to stay on the field (missing 10 games in 3 seasons) and totaling 564 carries from 2010-2012. However, he finally put it all together in 2013, rushing for 1255 yards and 6 touchdowns on 285 carries (4.40 yards per carry) and playing all 16 games. He didn’t contribute much in the passing game (26 catches), but he’s shown pass catching ability in the past (50 catches in 2011). Mathews could have another solid season in 2014, but he could just as easily get hurt.

240 carries for 1060 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 37 catches for 270 yards (175 pts standard)

RB Donald Brown (San Diego)

The Chargers did sign insurance for Mathews in the form of Donald Brown. Donald Brown has never had more than 150 touches in a season since being drafted in the 1st round in 2009. He averages 4.31 yards per carry for his career and he’s a liability on passing downs as he doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher or pass protector. He had a strong contract year, averaging 5.26 yards per carry, catching 27 passes for 214 yards and scoring a total of 7 times. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked running back and ranked 1st in elusive rating. That being said, that was on only 102 carries and 379 total snaps and, given his history, it’s a major leap to suggest he could be a consistently successful lead back if needed. He’s probably best off in this backup role, which is what he’ll be in San Diego. He should still carries from Danny Woodhead (429 yards on 106 carries) and could make a couple starts in the absence of Mathews is he gets hurt.

110 carries for 480 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 110 yards (83 pts standard)

RB Danny Woodhead (San Diego)

Neither Brown nor Mathews showed much as a pass catcher last season, but that’s fine because the Chargers have Danny Woodhead as a pass catching specialist. He caught 76 passes last season on 302 routes run for 609 receiving yards, an average of 2.02 yards per route run. He was Darren Sproles 2.0 for the Chargers, a big part of their short, quick throw offense, something they and Philip Rivers had been missing badly since Sproles left. He’s not much of a rusher though. Woodhead had 106 carries last season, a career high, but only rushed for 4.05 yards per carry. Brown will eat into his carries.

70 carries for 300 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 65 catches for 550 yards (109 pts standard)

WR Keenan Allen (San Diego)

Even though he didn’t play at all week 1 and didn’t move into the starting lineup until week 4, Allen still caught 71 passes for 1046 yards and 8 touchdowns as a rookie. Rookie wide receivers aren’t supposed to get it this quickly. Since 2005, 31 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 41 catches for 558 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. Allen blew those numbers out of the water and he was a 3rd round pick. Allen continued this strong play into the post-season, where he caught 8 passes for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games.

Allen did all of this despite “only” running 510 pass snaps and seeing the bulk of the defense’s attention as a #1 wide receiver as a rookie. He averaged 2.06 yards per route run. And it wasn’t like the Chargers were forcing him the ball. Allen’s 101 targets were 31st in the NFL (he caught 70.3% of them) and Philip Rivers had a 118.1 QB rating throwing to Allen. He doesn’t have massive upside like AJ Green or Julio Jones, who were productive as rookies, but he could have a career similar to Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin, who were also productive as rookies, and he should be even more productive this season simply by virtue of the fact that he’ll play more this season. An extra 50 routes run should be another 100 yards.

82 catches for 1160 yards and 10 touchdowns (176 pts standard)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

Antonio Gates turned in a vintage season last year, catching 77 passes for 872 yards and 4 touchdowns, his highest receiving total since 2009 and played all 16 games, something else he hadn’t done since 2009. However, now he heads into his age 34 season and his 2012 season in which he caught 49 passes for 538 yards and 7 touchdowns is still fairly recent and relevant. He also missed 10 games from 2010-2012 and caught just 24 passes for 223 yards and 1 touchdown in the Chargers’ final 8 games of the season, including playoffs.

48 catches for 600 yards and 5 touchdowns (90 pts standard)

TE Lardarius Green (San Diego)

If Gates starts to show his age more, it’ll probably be more snaps for Ladarius Green, a 2012 4th round pick and Gates’ heir apparent. Green only ran 141 routes last season, but impressed, catching 17 passes for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns, an average of 2.67 yards per route run. There’s a lot of off-season buzz around him so he’s worth a late round flier in deeper leagues.

32 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

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Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos, Uncategorized

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Expecting Manning to come close to putting up 55 and 5500 again in 2014 (both records) is very naïve and short-sighted. Manning is now going into his age 38 season, has lost Eric Decker, and last season is simply impossible to repeat. He could still throw up 4800 and 40 (which would be the 2nd highest yardage total and 3rd highest touchdown total of his career) and be the best passing quarterback in the NFL, but I like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers more because Brees is on an offense that is more pass heavy and Rodgers adds value on the ground.

4800 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 20 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (334 pts standard)

RB Montee Ball (Denver)

Ball is unproven, with only 140 career touches, all as a rookie in 2013. However, the 2013 2nd round pick showed good running ability, averaging 4.66 yards per carry and showing the kind of pass catching ability (20 catches for 145 yards) that he never really displayed in college. He’ll the clear lead back this season, at least on early downs, and he’ll have plenty of room to run and opportunities for touchdowns on this explosive Broncos offense.

250 carries for 1100 rushing yards, 11 total touchdowns, 28 catches for 220 receiving yards (198 pts standard)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas has broken out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL statistically over the past 2 seasons, combining to catch 186 passes for 2864 yards and 26 touchdowns in those 2 years. Obviously, Peyton Manning’s arrival had something to do with that, but the 2010 1st round pick had 35 catches for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs, with Tim Tebow in 2011. That’s 80 catches for 1703 yards and 9 touchdowns extrapolated over 16 games. Manning won’t throw as many yards or touchdowns this year, but with Eric Decker gone and Wes Welker aging, Thomas should exceed the 138 targets he had last season (only 12th in the NFL) and could have the best season of his career in his contract year.

98 catches for 1520 yards and 13 touchdowns (230 pts standard)

WR Wes Welker (Denver)

With Decker gone, Welker should have a bigger role this season. He played just 38.7 pass snaps per game last season, as opposed to 42.2 for Decker and 43.6 for Thomas. However, he’s an aging player going into his age 33 season. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Welker is “only” 47th in all-time receiving yards. He definitely showed some of this deterioration last season, missing 3 games with injury and averaging 1.64 yards per route run, pretty middle of the pack, especially considering he had the best quarterback in the NFL throwing passes to him. He’s also unlikely to score 10 times again, after averaging just over 6 touchdowns per season in New England.

77 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns (112 pts standard)

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Denver)

Sanders is Decker’s replacement and will play in 3-wide receiver sets, which the Broncos run often. In two years of significant experience in Pittsburgh, Sanders averaged 1.48 and 1.34 yards per route run in 2012 and 2013 respectively, showing himself to be just a guy. However, Manning has turned average receivers into productive fantasy players before. Sanders is a bench stash with nice upside.

60 catches for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns (121 pts standard)

TE Julius Thomas (Denver)

Thomas had a breakout year in Denver’s offense last season, catching 65 passes for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. I don’t see the production really going anywhere and he could be Manning’s #2 option this season with Decker gone, but I’m skeptical that he can catch 12 touchdowns on 65 passes again. Double digit scores isn’t out of the question though.

62 catches for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns (136 pts standard)

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2014 NFL Season Predictions

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Uncategorized
NE 12 4 CIN 12 4 IND 10 6 DEN 12 4
BUF 7 9 BAL 9 7 HOU 9 7 SD 8 8
MIA 6 10 PIT 9 7 TEN 6 10 KC 5 11
NYJ 4 12 CLE 6 10 JAX 2 14 OAK 5 11
PHI 10 6 DET 12 4 NO 12 4 SF 12 4
WAS 8 8 GB 12 4 ATL 9 7 SEA 12 4
NYG 5 11 CHI 6 10 CAR 8 8 ARZ 6 10
DAL 4 12 MIN 6 10 TB 7 9 STL 5 11

 

AFC Wild Card Round

Indianapolis Colts 24 Baltimore Ravens 17

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Houston Texans 9

NFC Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17

San Francisco 49ers 27 Green Bay Packers 20

AFC Divisional Round

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 13

NFC Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints 27 Seattle Seahawks 17

San Francisco 49ers 20 Detroit Lions 16

AFC Championship

New England Patriots 30 Denver Broncos 27

NFC Championship

New Orleans Saints 27 San Francisco 49ers 20

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints 34 New England Patriots 31

Awards

MVP: QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Defensive Player of the Year: DE JJ Watt (Houston)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: WR Brandin Cooks (New Orleans)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: OLB Jadeveon Clowney (Houston)

Comeback Player of the Year: WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

Coach of the Year: HC Jim Caldwell (Detroit)

Prop Bets

Chicago Bears under 8.5 (+135)

Detroit Lions over 8.5 (+110)

Green Bay Packers over 9.5 (-120)

New York Jets under 7 (+115)

Detroit Lions (+400) to win NFC North

Detroit Lions (+210) to make playoffs

Jacksonville Jaguars (+450) to have the worst record in the NFL

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