Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expect their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.
I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. The Bears have already lost 3rd wide receiver Marquess Wilson to a significant injury.
Defensively, they had injuries last season, losing Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Henry Melton for significant periods of time, but Melton is gone and Briggs and Tillman are going into their age 34 and 33 seasons respectively and see could never be the same. I like what they did at defensive end bringing in LaMarr Houston, Jared Allen, and Willie Young to replace Julius Peppers, Corey Wootton, and Shea McClellin, but Allen isn’t what he used to be and he gives them 4 players who are over 40 (Allen, Briggs, Tillman, and Tim Jennings). It’s not going to be a significantly improved unit and it’ll need to be with the offense likely “only” being an above average offense.
I’m not thrilled about the Bills either, but, as long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, they’re the right side. These two teams are essentially equal (the Bills’ offense is equally bad as the Bears’ defense and the Bears’ offense is equally good as the Bills’ defense) so this line should be around 3. I’m certainly not laying a touchdown with a mediocre Bears team. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites. The Bills are the right side here.
Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 17
Pick against spread: Buffalo +7
Confidence: Medium
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Football Fan Spot 