Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

Those who follow these picks know I like to use a lot of situational trends. For example, if a team is big favorites before a game in which they are big underdogs, I tend to go the other direction expecting the team to get caught looking forward to the next week (the opposite is true for big underdogs before being big favorites and favorites before being bigger favorites). I don’t like to use those week 1 (instead relying solely on the work I’ve done projecting these teams in the off-season) because teams are almost always completely focused week 1, no matter who they are playing the following week.

However, there is one I’m going to use here. The Steelers could overlook the Browns with a game against the Ravens in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 30-52 ATS the week before Thursday Night Football since 2008. We’re not getting a ton of value with the Browns at +7 and I still expect the Steelers to get the win here as the superior team at home, but I think the Browns are the right side for a low confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: Low

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