Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons because of their improbable ability to win close games (14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, 15-2 if you include playoffs). However, there’s still not really any line value with the Broncos.

I’m taking the Broncos here for three reasons and I’m not that confident. For one, Peyton Manning is great in night games, going 31-14 ATS in night games since 2003. Also since 2003, he’s 27-13 ATS in non-divisional revenge games against teams that he lost to the previous season. Manning obviously hasn’t forgotten about how the Colts knocked them off in Indianapolis last season is likely to get revenge in a big way. He’s also 7-3 ATS in week 1 in that time frame. I’m not that confident, but the Broncos here at home should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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