New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

This is another game where I’m kicking myself for not betting it earlier as the Patriots used to be favorites of a mere 1.5 points. I would have been fairly confident in them -1.5. Tom Brady is 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. The Patriots have also won 10 of their last 11 season openers. The Patriots were underdogs of a point in Miami last season and only lost by 4, with a shot to win it at the end. It didn’t make sense that they would be favorites of just 1.5 points here in Miami in 2014, with a much improved team that includes Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, and Jerod Mayo coming back from injury, as well as Darrelle Revis coming over from Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, aren’t really that improved. Branden Albert is a nice addition, but Mike Pouncey won’t play thanks to injury and they lost 3 defensive starters Nolan Carroll, Chris Clemons, and Paul Soliai and downgraded at all 3 spots. Now the Patriots are favored by 4.5, meaning this line jumped the key numbers of 3 and 4. I still like the Patriots’ chances of winning, but I can’t be confident in them against the spread without field goal protection.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5

Confidence: None

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