New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

These two teams tend to be a lot better at home than on the road. Matt Ryan is 36-12 at home in his career, including 28-19 ATS and 5-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Saints, meanwhile, are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. That’s as opposed to 19-25 ATS (25-21 straight up) on the road.

In this rivalry, the home team is 8-4 ATS since 2008. The Falcons were awful last season and this was still a 4 point game when the Saints went to Atlanta. The Falcons should be significantly improved this season, both in terms of talent level and record. Given that, the Falcons should be the right side here, but the Saints are, in my opinion, possibly the best team in the NFL so it’s hard to go against them. I’m taking the Falcons, but I’m not confident and a push is very likely.

New Orleans Saints 26 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: None

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