Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 1

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Uncategorized

What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams).

Offense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 SEA 25 4 2 2 1 0 0 0.852941
2 NO 30 4 2 2 2 0 0 0.85
3 DET 20 4 3 2 0 0 0 0.827586
4 DEN 24 4 1 5 0 0 0 0.823529
5 ATL 28 4 3 3 1 0 0 0.820513
6 SF 19 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.814815
7 DAL 26 2 1 2 4 0 0 0.8
8 CHI 29 2 2 4 3 0 0 0.775
9 BAL 26 2 2 4 2 1 0 0.756757
10 MIA 25 3 4 2 3 0 0 0.756757
11 MIN 18 3 2 5 0 0 0 0.75
12 ARZ 22 2 2 4 2 0 0 0.75
13 IND 24 3 1 4 2 2 0 0.75
14 CLE 23 3 2 7 0 0 0 0.742857
15 PIT 24 3 3 6 1 0 0 0.72973
16 WAS 20 1 0 5 2 1 0 0.724138
17 GB 19 2 1 4 1 1 1 0.724138
18 TEN 24 2 4 6 0 0 0 0.722222
19 PHI 24 3 2 6 3 0 0 0.710526
20 NYJ 20 2 2 5 2 0 0 0.709677
21 TB 17 2 0 5 3 0 0 0.703704
22 CAR 19 2 3 6 0 0 0 0.7
23 NYG 16 2 0 5 2 1 0 0.692308
24 HOU 16 1 1 6 1 0 0 0.68
25 SD 16 2 1 6 1 1 0 0.666667
26 NE 20 2 2 5 2 2 0 0.666667
27 BUF 15 2 3 5 1 0 0 0.653846
28 CIN 16 1 6 4 0 0 0 0.62963
29 JAX 18 2 3 8 1 1 0 0.606061
30 KC 15 1 2 5 3 1 0 0.592593
31 OAK 11 2 0 9 0 0 0 0.590909
32 STL 15 0 3 6 2 0 0 0.576923

Defense

First Downs Touchdowns Field Goals Punts Turnovers Failed 4ths Safeties
1 MIN 15 0 3 6 2 0 0 0.576923
2 NYJ 11 2 0 9 0 0 0 0.590909
3 TEN 15 1 2 5 3 1 0 0.592593
4 PHI 18 2 3 8 1 1 0 0.606061
5 BAL 16 1 6 4 0 0 0 0.62963
6 CHI 15 2 3 5 1 0 0 0.653846
7 MIA 20 2 2 5 2 2 0 0.666667
8 ARZ 16 2 1 6 1 1 0 0.666667
9 WAS 16 1 1 6 1 0 0 0.68
10 DET 16 2 0 5 2 1 0 0.692308
11 TB 19 2 3 6 0 0 0 0.7
12 CAR 17 2 0 5 3 0 0 0.703704
13 OAK 20 2 2 5 2 0 0 0.709677
14 JAX 24 3 2 6 3 0 0 0.710526
15 KC 24 2 4 6 0 0 0 0.722222
16 SEA 19 2 1 4 1 1 1 0.724138
17 HOU 20 1 0 5 2 1 0 0.724138
18 CLE 24 3 3 6 1 0 0 0.72973
19 PIT 23 3 2 7 0 0 0 0.742857
20 DEN 24 3 1 4 2 2 0 0.75
21 SD 22 2 2 4 2 0 0 0.75
22 STL 18 3 2 5 0 0 0 0.75
23 NE 25 3 4 2 3 0 0 0.756757
24 CIN 26 2 2 4 2 1 0 0.756757
25 BUF 29 2 2 4 3 0 0 0.775
26 SF 26 2 1 2 4 0 0 0.8
27 DAL 19 3 1 4 0 0 0 0.814815
28 NO 28 4 3 3 1 0 0 0.820513
29 IND 24 4 1 5 0 0 0 0.823529
30 NYG 20 4 3 2 0 0 0 0.827586
31 ATL 30 4 2 2 2 0 0 0.85
32 GB 25 4 2 2 1 0 0 0.852941

Overall

1 MIN 17.31%
2 DET 13.53%
3 TEN 12.96%
4 SEA 12.88%
5 BAL 12.71%
6 CHI 12.12%
7 NYJ 11.88%
8 PHI 10.45%
9 MIA 9.01%
10 ARZ 8.33%
11 DEN 7.35%
12 WAS 4.41%
13 NO 2.95%
14 SF 1.48%
15 CLE 1.31%
16 TB 0.37%
17 CAR -0.37%
18 PIT -1.31%
19 DAL -1.48%
20 ATL -2.95%
21 HOU -4.41%
22 IND -7.35%
23 SD -8.33%
24 NE -9.01%
25 JAX -10.45%
26 OAK -11.88%
27 BUF -12.12%
28 CIN -12.71%
29 GB -12.88%
30 KC -12.96%
31 NYG -13.53%
32 STL -17.31%

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