Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. They finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.81%, behind only Denver and New Orleans, thanks to a league best defense that only allowed opponents to move the chains at a 65.68% rate and an above average offense that moved the chains at a 73.49% rate, 12th in the NFL.

The Bengals’ performance week 1 only solidifies that prediction as they were able to get a tough road win against a Baltimore team that is 42-10 at home since 2008, something that gave them problems last season. On the road last season, they went 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS. That included losses to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. Now they return home where they were incredible last season.

They went undefeated at home last season in the regular season, doing so by an average of 17.62 points per game and covering all 8 times, until that playoff loss to the Chargers. They should be able to maintain that home dominance this week against an Atlanta team that has had issues outdoors in recent years and that might be a little overconfident coming off of that win against New Orleans in overtime (teams are 35-49 ATS off of a win by 1-3 points as divisional dogs since 2008). The Falcons are also now missing Jake Matthews with an injury, after losing Sam Baker before the season started, which is forcing them to start Gabe Carimi and Lamar Holmes at tackle. This line should be a lot higher than 5.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5

Confidence: Medium

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