Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Their loss to the Bills last week only solidifies my opinion that they’re going to struggle this year.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. Last week, they beat up on a terrible Dallas team, winning 28-13. They’re also in a good situation here as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Arizona next week). Teams are 52-24 ATS in that situation since 2008. They should blow out the Bears here in the Levi Stadium opener on Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: High

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