Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the Texans are also going to be a bounce back team this season. Their offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21^st in rate of moving the chains (including 11^th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record. The fact that RG3 and the Redskin offense struggled against the Texans’ defense doesn’t necessarily mean that RG3 will never find his 2012 form again.

He could easily find it this week. The Texans don’t suck, but the Jaguars do. They started out 17-0 against the Eagles, but showed their true colors once again, eventually losing 34-17. They went 4-12 last season and were even worse than their record. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%. In their last 17 games, they’ve lost 11 times by double digits. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Redskins made it 12 times in 18 games. This line is way too low.

Washington Redskins 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Washington -6

Confidence: Medium

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