New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and that was even though they had other significant injuries. Now not only is Rodgers healthy, but also Randall Cobb, Clay Matthews, and Casey Hayward. They have the opportunity to still be a very good team (I had them at 12-4 before the season started), but this line doesn’t suggest that as they are mere 8.5 point favorites over the Jets. That seems like an overreaction to last week.

The Packers will have had 10 days to prepare for this game, which can’t hurt. Rodgers has been very good off of a loss in his career, going 18-9 ATS in such situations. The Packers also return home where they’ve been incredibly dominant over the past few seasons, as long as Rodgers has been under center. The Packers have also been incredible at home over the past few years, as long as Aaron Rodgers has been under center. Rodgers is 21-8-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 26-4 straight up, with an absurd +409 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.63 points per game. They should be able to flip the script here and blow out the Jets the way they were blown out in Seattle.

The Jets might also be a little overrated here. They looked decent against Oakland (even though they only won by 5), but that was Oakland at home. This is a different story. They went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games. They added Eric Decker this off-season and they should have better turnover and fumble luck, after recovering a league worst 30.30% of fumbles and finishing with a -13 turnover margin, but they aren’t a good team. The Packers should blow them out fairly easily here. This is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 34 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]