Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)

I had the Cowboys at 4-12 coming into the season, but even that might have been a little optimistic, based on their play against the 49ers week 1 in a 28-13 home loss. Their defense was just as bad as I expected, unable to get off the field and essentially showing themselves to be non-existent. However, Tony Romo looked like he was turning into 2014’s version of Matt Schaub in 2013, an older non-top tier quarterback who sees his abilities randomly fall off a cliff. Romo threw 3 picks, 2 of which were awful. In his age 34 season, coming off of serious back surgery, it’s a concern.

The Cowboys offense moved the chains well when they weren’t turning the ball over and it’s important not to overreact to one game so I’m not moving them down in my book any further from where I had them, but I still think this is a terrible team with easily the worst defense in the league and an offense that won’t be able to keep up. The Titans aren’t a great team (their win in Kansas City was more an indictment of the Chiefs than a sign that the Titans will be good this season), but they’re still noticeably better than the Cowboys. We’re getting line value with them as they’re more than a half point better than the Titans.

The reason the Titans aren’t a bigger play this week is because they aren’t in a great situation. They have a much tougher game than the Cowboys next week as they go to Cincinnati while the Cowboys go to St. Louis. Teams are 67-96 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites since 2002, while teams are 86-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs since 2010. The Titans should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5

Confidence: Low

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