New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Ordinarily, I don’t like to pick the Saints on the road. I was 15-2-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-1-2 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I did that by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. The Saints went 7-0-1 ATS at home last season, but they are 2-8-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season. Here they are 6.5 point favorites on the road in Cleveland and the public is all over the Saints, which makes me want to take the Browns.
However, I have a hard time taking the Browns without Jordan Cameron against a team like the Saints that, for all their road struggles, is still one of the most talented in the NFL. Drew Brees is also very good off of a loss in his career as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, going 18-5 ATS in that situation since 2008. On top of that, teams are better in their 2nd straight road game than their 1st one. Since 2008, teams are 434-615 in their first road game, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. Meanwhile, teams are 181-205 in their second road game, getting outscored by an average of 0.66 points per game. Finally, the Saints have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against the Vikings up next. Teams are 44-32 ATS since 2008 as road favorites before being double digit home favorites. I’m not confident at all, but the Saints are my pick.
New Orleans Saints 27 Cleveland Browns 20
Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5
Confidence: None
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