Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

The Saints are 0-2, but I’m not too worried about them. If one of their offensive players had been able to tackle Tashaun Gipson on his eventual pick 6, there’s a very good chance they’d be 1-1 right now and heading home to face the Vikings as at least 12 point favorites. They weren’t able to do that and they lost as a result, but both of their first two games were very close and I’m not going to completely throw out my pre-season evaluation of this team just because of a few plays that didn’t go their way.

We’re getting a ton of line value with them as a result of public overreaction. The Saints as just 9.5 point home favorites is stealing considering how good they are at home. The Saints are 31-10 ATS at home since 2008 in the games which Drew Brees and Sean Payton were involved.  On top of that, they are 16-0-1 ATS at home over their last 16 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. They’ve won all 17 of those games by an average of about 20.8 points per game, with just three being decided by 10 points or less and just one being decided by less than 6 points. They should be able to win by double digits here against an average at best Vikings team.

As I mentioned, this line is an overreaction. The Saints are moving the chains at an 81.81% rate, as opposed to 80.28% for their opponents. 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record. Finally, on top of that, Drew Brees usually bounces back well. He’s 18-5 ATS off of a loss as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline since 2008. He didn’t last week on the road, but he’s 13-2 at home in that situation. This is my pick of the week.

New Orleans Saints 34 Minnesota Vikings 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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