Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often (10) than they picked up the first down (8) against what has generally been a terrible defense over the past year or two. The Jaguars moved the chains at a 45.00% rate, while the Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, one of the worst performances by a team I’ve seen in a long time.

The Jaguars were awful last season too, losing 10 of 12 games by double digits and needing a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less to even get to 4-12. Those 4 wins came against opponents who finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential last season. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

The Colts hadn’t lost more than two in a row in the Andrew Luck era before last week and now they’re 0-2, but I still like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here in Jacksonville. The Colts are still 10-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012 and the line here is only 7. In their last 19 games, they have 13 double digit losses. The Colts should be able to make that 14 double digit losses in 20 games. They have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against Tennessee up next. Teams are 40-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are going to San Diego next week and could easily be double digit underdogs. Teams are 39-79 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-79 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. Finally, 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record or their opponent is really bad (in this game, it’s both).

The Colts don’t have a ton of blowout wins in the Andrew Luck era, winning 15 of their 23 games (including playoffs) since 2012 by a touchdown or less, but they got a blowout victory (XX-XX) here in Jacksonville last year. I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back and getting another blowout victory here, though I’d be more confident if their history of blowout wins was bigger.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Medium

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