Denver Broncos (2-0) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

The Seahawks are usually at auto-bet at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 42-19 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 41-19-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.75 points per game. This is opposed to a 22-40 record away from home (27-34-1 ATS) and getting outscored by 4.13 points per game on the road.

This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 2 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 18-1 straight up and 14-5 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.05 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 9.08 points per game at home. The normal 3 points for homefield advantage doesn’t apply for them and they should get something like 6 points for homefield advantage, at least. The odds makers have been clearly boosting the spread for their homefield advantage recently, but they’ve still covered 6 of their last 10 home games.

This spread here seems like the definition of boosting the spread for the Seahawks’ homefield advantage as they are 5 point favorites here over the Broncos. Peyton Manning is rarely an underdog, with the exception of week 16 and 17 games when he often used to barely play when with the Colts, resting for the playoffs. Since 2003, he’s been an underdog 17 times in week 15 or earlier, in 142 total games. He’s 13-4 ATS as an underdog and this is actually the most he’s been an underdog of since 2002, a 23-20 win in Denver as 6.5 point underdogs.

The Broncos have definitely been preparing for this game all off-season and this is clearly their biggest regular season game. Manning is 9-4 ATS against non-divisional opponents he lost to the previous season since 2003. A lot of what happened in the Super Bowl was fluky (the Seahawks aren’t actually 35 points better than the Broncos) and I like the Broncos chances of proving that and at least keeping this within a field goal.

The Seahawks are also in a bad spot here going into a bye. Home favorites of 6 or more cover the spread at a very high rate going into the bye (about 75%), but it’s the exact opposite for home favorites of all other amounts as home favorites of 1-5.5 are 33-59 ATS since 2002 going into a bye. That certainly works against the Seahawks here. I hate to go against the Seahawks at home, but I’m taking the points with the Broncos in easily their biggest game of the season against a Seahawks team in a bad spot. It’s not that high of a confidence pick though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against spread: Denver +5

Confidence: Low

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