Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 168-177 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 236-339 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.26 points per game.
People are really down on the Chiefs because they’re 0-2 and lost last week in Denver, but they put up a decent fight. 0-2 teams the year after making the playoffs tend to cover the spread. I like their chances this week in Miami as 4 point underdogs. The only reason the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play is because they have to play the Patriots in Kansas City next week and the Dolphins only have to deal with the Raiders in London next week. Teams are 43-71 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. I still like the Chiefs, but not a ton.
Miami Dolphins 20 Kansas City Chiefs 19
Pick against spread: Kansas City +4
Confidence: Low
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